Another Difficult Severe Weather Forecast

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. We will be monitoring this closely and if anything does form our weather team will be tracking any severe weather risks as they threaten where you live. Summer is less than four weeks away with the severe weather risks going way down soon, but we are still near the peak of severe weather season, so let’s pay close attention to tomorrow.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny & warm. Light winds from the north at 10 mph or less. High: 83°
  • Tonight: Dry with thunderstorms forming northwest of Kansas City.  Low:  65°
  • Saturday:  This is a complex forecast. There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms before noon. If these move through, then the chance later in the day goes way down. If the thunderstorms don’t make it through in the morning, then the chance later in the day goes up and the severe weather risk goes up.  High: 77°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds. High: 75°
  • Memorial Day: Mostly sunny and very nice with a west to southwest breeze around 10-15 mph.  High:  80°

Weather Discussion:

Who was awake last night when thunderstorms moved through. I was! Between 3 and 4 AM this band of thunderstorms in a rather weak complex of thunderstorms moved through:

The computer models did not do a very good job at modeling this band of rain and thunderstorms. And, the models are again having a problem with modeling the set-up on Saturday.

The first very important weather feature to monitor is a likely complex of thunderstorms that will be forming and organizing late Friday night into Saturday morning. If this likely complex of thunderstorms is strong and large, then it will have a major impact on what happens later in the day Saturday. If it is weak and moves fast, then the set-up for Saturday afternoon and evenings severe weather risk will be much more impressive closer to Kansas City.

Severe Weather Risk today and tonight:

The slight risk over western Kansas Is the area to monitor closely for where the likely organized Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) will form tonight. Again, monitoring this development may be a huge factor for Saturdays set up.

Severe Weather Risk Saturday:

The Storm Prediction Center has a large enhances slight risk area over southern Missouri south into Arkansas. This region will need to pay very close attention to how it all sets up on Saturday.

From the SPC:  “Widespread severe thunderstorms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday and Saturday night from parts of the southern and central plains east-northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A very moist and unstable airmass should be in place Saturday from eastern parts of the southern plains northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Surface dewpointes are forecast to be in the lower to middle 70s across much of this corridor contributing the fuel for moderate to strong instability by afternoon.  Deterministic and high-res solutions suggest that a complex of thunderstorms will first develop across the central plains around midday with this complex growing in size an moving east-southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon.”

Here is where it is tricky, once again.  The SPC is suggesting this complex of thunderstorms will form around midday, but they seem to not be emphasizing that this development could be already fully mature and forming by 7 AM. If this activity is already active early, then the midday version would have already formed much earlier and this would have an impact on afternoon development. But, if the earlier activity isn’t as organized, then this will have a major impact on the location of the afternoon risk. The biggest risk will still likely fall in where the SPC has the enhanced slight risk.

It is never easy is it? Let’s see how the models come in today. Have a great Friday! We will be monitoring closely and updating you on KSHB.com and 41 Action News.

Gary

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Mr. PeteBDHAlex PickmanREAL HUMEDUDERockdoc Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Looks like the radar is active in western Kansas…

BDH
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BDH

Any chance the SPC will issue a high risk?

Rockdoc
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Good afternoon Gary. Looking at the 12z NAM it appears like rain will be moving into KC around 1pm. You can see the front and surface low with temp difference and wind direction at 4pm.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sfct_b&rh=2017052612&fh=33&r=us_c&dpdt=

Reflectivity for 4pm showing storms just to the east and south of KC.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2017052612&fh=33&r=us_c&dpdt=

What is real Interesting is SigTor for 7pm that flanks the front as it pushes SE.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2017052612&fh=36&r=us_c&dpdt=

Not looking good for southern Missouri and Arkansas tomorrow late afternoon and evening!

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

These pop up storms are crazy. Ive been trying to get my deck stained for a month now. Just cant seem to find a dry 2-3 day stretch.
Oh well, in a month I am sure that wont be a problem.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Then you will have to deal with the heat haha

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Watch 41 last night and didn’t hear mention of overnight storms even though the cluster in central KS was much closer and further south than any model thought. I do recall Gary mentioning it in the blog though, we seem to get hit by every chance lately. Hoping we can continue drying out down here a little more, might be able to put up some hay next week or at least my guys can get the beans planted

Jason
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Jason

I watched the 10:15 41 news and Gerard mentioned the storms in Western and Central, Ks would move through after 2am if they held together.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I was watching my radar app at exact same time, I am known to zone out and must have missed the mention. I stand corrected!

New SPC discussion out, we are in the enhanced slight risk, expanding Southern Mo to Moderate Risk

Kathy
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Kathy

Alex, that IS very interesting. I hope the percentage continues to go down. And Gary, you were right on with your statement yesterday about a complex of storms moving in around 4 a.m. I was up when last night’s storm moved through and my clock said 3:30…I live east of KC. I kind of doubted you, but you must have seen it as a possibility early on yesterday. Good call. Now, we will wait and see what happens tomorrow. Already warm and humid outside.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Going to repost this as I posted it rather late last night on the previous blog entry.

Fun fact for the day,

As of this week, only 4.5 percent of the Country is experiencing drought conditions, which makes that the lowest weekly percentage since the Drought Monitor began in 2000.

Given the vast areas in in Severe and Exceptional drought the least several years, especially our West…. this is even more impressive

Baseball Mike
Guest

Good morning Gary-I received a paltry .10 from the storms but I did hear them and was up very briefly-It was better than nothing as the plants got watered. I now have recorded 22.22 for the year to Colorado State. We have received way more isolated thunderstorms than Billard Airport. Thanks for the info. After this weekend I figured you would talk about June.
Michael /Berryton/Topeka