Good morning bloggers,
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. We will be monitoring this closely and if anything does form our weather team will be tracking any severe weather risks as they threaten where you live. Summer is less than four weeks away with the severe weather risks going way down soon, but we are still near the peak of severe weather season, so let’s pay close attention to tomorrow.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: Mostly sunny & warm. Light winds from the north at 10 mph or less. High: 83°
- Tonight: Dry with thunderstorms forming northwest of Kansas City. Low: 65°
- Saturday: This is a complex forecast. There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms before noon. If these move through, then the chance later in the day goes way down. If the thunderstorms don’t make it through in the morning, then the chance later in the day goes up and the severe weather risk goes up. High: 77°
- Sunday: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds. High: 75°
- Memorial Day: Mostly sunny and very nice with a west to southwest breeze around 10-15 mph. High: 80°
Who was awake last night when thunderstorms moved through. I was! Between 3 and 4 AM this band of thunderstorms in a rather weak complex of thunderstorms moved through:
The computer models did not do a very good job at modeling this band of rain and thunderstorms. And, the models are again having a problem with modeling the set-up on Saturday.
The first very important weather feature to monitor is a likely complex of thunderstorms that will be forming and organizing late Friday night into Saturday morning. If this likely complex of thunderstorms is strong and large, then it will have a major impact on what happens later in the day Saturday. If it is weak and moves fast, then the set-up for Saturday afternoon and evenings severe weather risk will be much more impressive closer to Kansas City.
Severe Weather Risk today and tonight:
The slight risk over western Kansas Is the area to monitor closely for where the likely organized Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) will form tonight. Again, monitoring this development may be a huge factor for Saturdays set up.
Severe Weather Risk Saturday:
The Storm Prediction Center has a large enhances slight risk area over southern Missouri south into Arkansas. This region will need to pay very close attention to how it all sets up on Saturday.
From the SPC: “Widespread severe thunderstorms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday and Saturday night from parts of the southern and central plains east-northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A very moist and unstable airmass should be in place Saturday from eastern parts of the southern plains northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpointes are forecast to be in the lower to middle 70s across much of this corridor contributing the fuel for moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Deterministic and high-res solutions suggest that a complex of thunderstorms will first develop across the central plains around midday with this complex growing in size an moving east-southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon.”
Here is where it is tricky, once again. The SPC is suggesting this complex of thunderstorms will form around midday, but they seem to not be emphasizing that this development could be already fully mature and forming by 7 AM. If this activity is already active early, then the midday version would have already formed much earlier and this would have an impact on afternoon development. But, if the earlier activity isn’t as organized, then this will have a major impact on the location of the afternoon risk. The biggest risk will still likely fall in where the SPC has the enhanced slight risk.
It is never easy is it? Let’s see how the models come in today. Have a great Friday! We will be monitoring closely and updating you on KSHB.com and 41 Action News.