Good morning bloggers,
Kansas City Holiday Weather Time-Line:
- Today: An absolutely gorgeous day. High: 76° with a south breeze around 15 mph
- Tonight: A 10% chance of a thunderstorm around 4 AM. So, this likely means it will be dry in most locations. Low: 63°
- Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Southeast winds switching to the northeast at around 10 mph. High: 83°
- Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of thunderstorms. One model has a severe weather risk and the other ones do not have as much of a risk. We are monitoring closely as described below. A slight change and we could have a significant risk, but a slight change the other way and it is just a fast moving band of thunderstorms that lasts an hour or less. High: 78° The timing of the rain chance is toughest on this day and we should know more by Friday.
- Sunday-Memorial Day: Really nice weather with just a 10% chance of a brief shower Monday afternoon or evening. The rest of these days look great. Highs: 74 to 80 degrees
A very interesting set up is developing for Saturday. There is a lot to analyze between now and then. The Storm Prediction Center has this risk out for day 3:
There will likely be a morning MCS, a morning complex of thunderstorms Saturday. This will most likely form over northwest and western Kansas and ride east north of a developing front.
From the SPC: “Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday night from portions of the central and southern Plains east to the mid-Atlantic coast.
A positively tilted upper-level trough will extend from a closed low over Manitoba across the northern Plains and into the Great Basin, with moderately strong zonal flow and an expansive EML from the central Rockies east to the mid-Atlantic coast. By late Saturday afternoon, a surface frontal boundary will extend from the souther high plains east across Oklahoma to a surface low over the western Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east to the mid-atlantic coast. A drilling will extend from central Oklahoma into southwest Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place along and south of the front and east of the drilling, contributing to strong to extreme instability.
For the Central/Southern Plains: An MCE with some severe potential may be ongoing at 12z Saturday in the Kansas/Nebraska border region, and diurnal intensification of this complex is possible with a severe threat extending east across the lower Missouri Valley.
Additional potentially explosive thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the southward sagging cold front from central/eastern Oklahoma northeast into the western Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, and along the drilling from central Oklahoma southward into north Texas.
GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings reveal an environment characterized by strong to extreme surface-based instability and 40-50 its of deep layer shear and storms should rapidly become severe with all severe hazards possible, including significant severe hail and wind. Tornado potential will exist, and likely be influenced by boundary/storm interactions.”
We are still in the peak of tornado season. Look at today’s tornado climatology:
As you can see above, we are really now at the peak of tornado season. It will fade away within four weeks, but right now the jet stream energy is not just strong enough to produce the conditions for severe weather set ups, but historically this week has been really bad. The Joplin EF-5 occurred in this seven day stretch. The Moore, OK and El Reno, OK tornadoes in 2013 occurred during the second half of May.
The latest data is in with rather differing results. I am adding in the time-line with my thoughts near the top of the blog.
Have a great day. I have the day off from 41 Action News. I will check in from time to time if you have any questions.