Holiday Weekend Severe Weather Risks

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Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Holiday Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: An absolutely gorgeous day. High: 76° with a south breeze around 15 mph
  • Tonight: A 10% chance of a thunderstorm around 4 AM. So, this likely means it will be dry in most locations. Low: 63°
  • Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Southeast winds switching to the northeast at around 10 mph.  High:  83°
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of thunderstorms. One model has a severe weather risk and the other ones do not have as much of a risk. We are monitoring closely as described below. A slight change and we could have a significant risk, but a slight change the other way and it is just a fast moving band of thunderstorms that lasts an hour or less. High: 78° The timing of the rain chance is toughest on this day and we should know more by Friday.
  • Sunday-Memorial Day: Really nice weather with just a 10% chance of a brief shower Monday afternoon or evening. The rest of these days look great. Highs:  74 to 80 degrees

Weather Discussion:

A very interesting set up is developing for Saturday. There is a lot to analyze between now and then. The Storm Prediction Center has this risk out for day 3:

There will likely be a morning MCS, a morning complex of thunderstorms Saturday. This will most likely form over northwest and western Kansas and ride east north of a developing front.

From the SPC:  “Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday night from portions of the central and southern Plains east to the mid-Atlantic coast.  

A positively tilted upper-level trough will extend from a closed low over Manitoba across the northern Plains and into the Great Basin, with moderately strong zonal flow and an expansive EML from the central Rockies east to the mid-Atlantic coast.  By late Saturday afternoon, a surface frontal boundary will extend from the souther high plains east across Oklahoma to a surface low over the western Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east to the mid-atlantic coast. A drilling will extend from central Oklahoma into southwest Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place along and south of the front and east of the drilling, contributing to strong to extreme instability.

For the Central/Southern Plains:  An MCE with some severe potential may be ongoing at 12z Saturday in the Kansas/Nebraska border region, and diurnal intensification of this complex is possible with a severe threat extending east across the lower Missouri Valley.

Additional potentially explosive thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the southward sagging cold front from central/eastern Oklahoma northeast into the western Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, and along the drilling from central Oklahoma southward into north Texas. 

GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings reveal an environment characterized by strong to extreme surface-based instability and 40-50 its of deep layer shear and storms should rapidly become severe with all severe hazards possible, including significant severe hail and wind.  Tornado potential will exist, and likely be influenced by boundary/storm interactions.”

We are still in the peak of tornado season. Look at today’s tornado climatology:

As you can see above, we are really now at the peak of tornado season. It will fade away within four weeks, but right now the jet stream energy is not just strong enough to produce the conditions for severe weather set ups, but historically this week has been really bad. The Joplin EF-5 occurred in this seven day stretch. The Moore, OK and El Reno, OK tornadoes in 2013 occurred during the second half of May.

The latest data is in with rather differing results. I am adding in the time-line with my thoughts near the top of the blog.

Have a great day. I have the day off from 41 Action News. I will check in from time to time if you have any questions.

Gary

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TimMr. PeteAlex PickmanSnow MiserREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

That MCS is gonna clip the metro. It’s rolling in.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Fun fact for the evening.

As of this week, only 4.5 percent of the Country is experiencing drought conditions, which makes that the lowest weekly percentage since the Drought Monitor began in 2000.

Have a good night folks!!

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Add in thought,

Given the vast areas in in Severe and Exceptional drought the least several years, especially our West…. this is even more impressive

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Is that MCS gonna wake me up at 4 in the morning? *sigh*

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

There’s a pretty neat detached cumulonimbus Anvil going over the city right now it’s got some pretty neat mammatus features on it

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Good Afternoon Gary and Weather Gang. I’ve been watching the development of the potential for severe weather over Memorial Day weekend since last weekend when I started monitoring our chances for rain. It has stayed fairly stable in terms of the rain/storms on Saturday. However, something popped onto yesterday’s and today’s 12z NAM model. I like this model closer in since they also run SigTor. Yesterday’s SigTor was further east, but today it is further west. Check this out. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2017052512&fh=57&r=us_c&dpdt= In today’s model run, it shows a very high level SigTor around 4:00 pm on Saturday down around Warsaw and… Read more »

Dan M.
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Dan M.

I asked this a day or two ago but didn’t get a response, so I thought I would ask it again. Right now we are experiencing NW flow and cooler temperatures for an extended period. Based on the LRC, wouldn’t this possibly return in mid July to give us a stretch of cooler temps? Can you explain why this would or would not occur to further my understanding of the LRC.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Dan, I’m with your thought process there. However, Gary had some LRC model guidance that was indicating several smaller scale heat waves in July ( I say small scale as they were 3 day periods , not week long periods ). However, this cool NW flow would seem to contradict that model output. I would look at the previous cycle though, cycle 3 will be much more like cycle 5 than our current cycle 4 Will be. That probably as muddy response as you could get, better let Gary take that question lol

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Well fellow bloggers, heading down to Florida for a week, hate to leave 75-80 degree temps for what appears to be a heat wave in Florida. I grew up in Tampa-St Pete area, and 93-94 degrees with humidity is pretty stifling. I will check in online and see how the severe weather pans out while I’m gone.

Gary, I’m glad you recognized the humor in my blog comment yesterday, I appreciate you a great deal so keep up the good work.

Later dudes, even the ultra liberal Humedude.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Give me some credit Keith – I’ve managed to keep my mouth shut past few weeks despite loads of material I could go on and on. We all see this administration has become a circus. Enjoy FL!

MMike
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MMike

Hume,

Just because someone came in and blew up the entire mess of Washington, he’s labeled as a circus. Messing with everyone’s easy street agenda is a circus?

Change is tough, Our country needed a guy to call all every politician’s BS..

Time to cut the fat…that’s exactly what he is doing.

stl78
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stl78

Urbanity, did u move to kc for work? Most leave the Midwest for the warmth and sunshine. Regardless, enjoy your trip!

Kurt
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Kurt

Maybe they got a new weather person at the NWS? Used to have a dental background?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Meant to ask, I’ve read alot of NWS discussions and never ever heard the term DRILLING woth relation to weather.
Also, what is an MCE?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Not the best at reading severe setups but I’m not that impressed by the GFS or NAM. Obviously SPC is concerned, they are using terms like EXTREME instability and what not I trust their guidance but sure hasn’t been much of a severe season around here

Three7s
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Three7s

It’s hard to say that since the area saw the worst tornado outbreak we’ve had in years just last March, but other than that I agree with you. A very tame severe weather season once again.

Kathy
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Kathy

Listening to a competing local station last night (my husband’s favorite), I was given to understand that we “might” have a small isolated tstorm that probably won’t happen…not a big deal. So, was their forecast based on old data or just another model’s take? It sounded like this would be a gorgeous weekend with little to no storm action at all.

Three7s
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Three7s

So, our area will get the MCS north of the warm front. No chance of the warm front going north and getting into the warm sector?