Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: A brief shower or two is likely in a few spots, but most areas will stay dry. The showers are near the state line this morning. High: 65°
- Thursday: A gorgeous day with no chance of rain. High: 75°
- Friday: A slight chance of morning thunderstorms. There is a chance something moves through before sunrise, but most of the day looks dry and warm. The wind increases from the south at 20 mph. High: 80°
- Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance of rain is 60%. The best risk of severe weather appears it will stay south, but this could change a bit. High: 75°
- Sunday: A nice day with no rain expected. High: 77°
- Monday (Memorial Day): Warm and sunny with a southwest breeze around 17 mph. High: 80°
Summer begins June 21st, so this exactly four weeks from today. The jet stream is weakening gradually and by that first day of summer the jet stream shifts north and tornado season usually ends or at least shifts up to near the USA/Canada border. But, this has not happened yet and four weeks is still a long time from now. Between now and the middle of June this cycling pattern as described by the LRC has some more rather interesting set-ups that will produce severe weather risks, flooding rains, and cold fronts before summer tries to settle in.
This morning there is a Tornado Watch in Florida and a late May Frost Advisory over the northern Plains:
A cool weather pattern is in progress. Yesterday was another day of below average temperatures. The high at KCI Airport was 11 degrees below average:
Today will be Kansas City’s sixth day in a row with below average temperature, but overall the month is right now almost exactly average with -0.2° below as of yesterday.
A band of convective rain showers moved across and tracked around a developing storm system yesterday. The rainfall total was only 0.09″ but it adds to the total this year which is over 3″ above average. We forecasted a dry first half of May and a stormier second half of May. The first 17 days had below an inch of rain for the month, but that has once again changed big time as you can see below in the annual total as of yesterday. You can add in 0.09″ from yesterday to this total.
Will this wetter trend that began in late March continue into June? I am not going to say no way, that’s for sure. Weather2020 has been making some excellent accurate forecasts since this pattern began, but the forecast for the drier spring was rather obviously wrong. I can see why it did get wet, and it could have been weighted much heavier. So, we learn and get better.
Today, this system is spinning into Missouri and it will become a much bigger storm east of KC. The set ups for this weekend are becoming more interesting as well. There is a lot to analyze for the Memorial Day Weekend Forecast and we will delve deeper into it on Thursday.
Severe Weather Risk today:
Severe Weather Risk Friday:
Severe Weather Risk Saturday:
The European Model has the front setting up farther south on Saturday. Let’s see how the models set up and we will go in-depth tomorrow.
Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.