Summer Is Now Less Than Four Weeks Away: What Is Going On Here?

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  A brief shower or two is likely in a few spots, but most areas will stay dry. The showers are near the state line this morning. High:  65°
  • Thursday: A gorgeous day with no chance of rain. High:  75°
  • Friday:  A slight chance of morning thunderstorms. There is a chance something moves through before sunrise, but most of the day looks dry and warm. The wind increases from the south at 20 mph.  High:  80°
  • Saturday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance of rain is 60%.  The best risk of severe weather appears it will stay south, but this could change a bit. High: 75°
  • Sunday:  A nice day with no rain expected. High:  77°
  • Monday (Memorial Day):  Warm and sunny with a southwest breeze around 17 mph.  High:  80°

Weather Discussion:

Summer begins June 21st, so this exactly four weeks from today.  The jet stream is weakening gradually and by that first day of summer the jet stream shifts north and tornado season usually ends or at least shifts up to near the USA/Canada border.  But, this has not happened yet and four weeks is still a long time from now. Between now and the middle of June this cycling pattern as described by the LRC has some more rather interesting set-ups that will produce severe weather risks, flooding rains, and cold fronts before summer tries to settle in.

This morning there is a Tornado Watch in Florida and a late May Frost Advisory over the northern Plains:

A cool weather pattern is in progress. Yesterday was another day of below average temperatures. The high at KCI Airport was 11 degrees below average:

Today will be Kansas City’s sixth day in a row with below average temperature, but overall the month is right now almost exactly average with -0.2° below as of yesterday.

A band of convective rain showers moved across and tracked around a developing storm system yesterday. The rainfall total was only 0.09″ but it adds to the total this year which is over 3″ above average. We forecasted a dry first half of May and a stormier second half of May. The first 17 days had below an inch of rain for the month, but that has once again changed big time as you can see below in the annual total as of yesterday. You can add in 0.09″ from yesterday to this total.

Will this wetter trend that began in late March continue into June? I am not going to say no way, that’s for sure. Weather2020 has been making some excellent accurate forecasts since this pattern began, but the forecast for the drier spring was rather obviously wrong.  I can see why it did get wet, and it could have been weighted much heavier. So, we learn and get better.

Today, this system is spinning into Missouri and it will become a much bigger storm east of KC. The set ups for this weekend are becoming more interesting as well. There is a lot to analyze for the Memorial Day Weekend Forecast and we will delve deeper into it on Thursday.

Severe Weather Risk today:

Severe Weather Risk Friday:

Severe Weather Risk Saturday:

The European Model has the front setting up farther south on Saturday. Let’s see how the models set up and we will go in-depth tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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thetophatJoeMr. PeteL.BRichard Recent comment authors
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thetophat
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thetophat

Heading to SWMO for the Show Me 100 Saturday night. Please tell me the storms will stay south……….

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Is it gonna rain Saturday or not??? ☔️

Joe
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Joe

Pete,

I am wondering the same thing. I am actually more interested in whether there will be severe storms. All the models I have looked at indicate a fair chance of rain for part of Saturday

L.B
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L.B

worse yet! a KC Chief’s football blog….bohaha

L.B
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L.B

lots of ego on here tonight. almost like a football blog

Richard
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Richard

Interesting what the NWS KC says concerning the remainder of May and first half of June on their fb page

https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/posts/1299801493407824:0

Kurt
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Kurt

I thought it was a bad weather pattern, just a slightly above normal weather pattern for precipitation up here. The NWS recording station is still showing only slightly above normal year-to-date in St. Joseph. I don’t mind rain every 4 or 5 days, it’s the 3 week dry stretches that are rough unless we get these cooler temps to hang around.

Avoided any hail this spring so far, which is unusual and really haven’t had any direct hits with a big thunderstorm all year.

Dobber
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Dobber

Have you gotten to take a break from dragging the hoses around kurt? I know my tomato patch wants it to dry out and warm up.

Richard
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Richard

You’re a piece of work Dobber

Joe
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Joe

Lighten up Francis, Dobber is just exhibiting his sense of humor. At least he isn’t calling names, making vulgar remarks. It would be nice if everybody would relax and enjoy life. Besides, I am betting Kurt is pretty darn happy right now and brushed off Dobber’s poking 😀 Have a beer Richard and enjoy the beautiful day tomorrow

j-ox
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j-ox

June on average is the wettest month of year. Our dry-ish June last year left me wondering what was to come…thankfully we recovered.

MMike
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MMike

Excellent forecasts…absolutely! Last November: I’m expecting below average snow and rain, above average temps with record highs at times and for a drought to develop! Perfect! Remember all the other long range forecasts for a colder/stormier winter?? Early March: I’m expecting the pattern to get active towards the end of the month with 6 storm systems, all six occurred! Perfect! And as you mentioned, a dry first half of May and a wetter/stormier second half. Perfect again. All these forecasts were from weeks out and some a month or better. The accuracy is certainly been there! Yes, the drier spring… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Keith – you must be feverish and quite delirious, 100% confidence of 40 days straight? Come on man, that’s a joke right? I know it gets brutal out there, but your not in death valley. Not a single 100F day this summer ( at KCI), you heard it here first and many times! I know from personal experience, it is hard for KC to hit 100F, only happens a few times a decade. Are there 2012 years with a dozen or more 100F days? Sure, this is Kansas and anything can and will happen. But on other hand, we go… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Our climate is obviously different than KC’s.
We (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) get a few inches less rain each year and get seven more days of sunshine annually.
We’ve hit 100° several years in a row.
My notes for 2014 are as follows:
July 22- Hit 100° for the first time this year — got to 103°.
July 25- Hot & dry. High temperature was 105° today.

In 2015 we had a few 100° days as early as June.
The first 100° day last year (2016) was July 13th. 

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Hey Hume, just going with the LRC’s indicators, that’a all. KC is ALOT different climate than central KS, we typically match Dodge City-Amarillo type temps. Wouldn’t you expect the “Mean Ridge” to return, and when it does can you see any reason why it will not get extremely hot? As George Bush would say, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, well….. well uh…..you just can’t get fooled again”. I don’t think the LRC will get fooled again come this summer.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Futures purchased based on a dry hot suffering summer might still pan out but because of a wet cool summer. Nah, I suspect this weekend may be our last hurrah for the summer. Remember, Kansas seems to have a monsoon season during the spring, with the remainder of the season based on hope and prayer. I still have 100% confidence that come mid-late July we will have a 40 day string of 100 degree temps across central Kansas….so I still temper my enthusiasm that Gary is/was wrong.

SteveA
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SteveA

Gary, any progress with the summer forecast? thank

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary’s subconscious speaking here: I find it very interesting, very peculiar, and wildly fascinating that any of my bloggers would doubt the LRC. Summer forecast you ask? How about a combo order of extremely hot and extremely dry. Were not talking carbohydrate dry, were talking the great Sahara desert dry. We’re not talking fry an egg on pavement hot, were talking cooking a pork butt on the sidewalk type heat, with a little hot tea on the side. If you want to know my exact summer forecast for your city block, just send me a $300 cashier’s check made out… Read more »