Good morning bloggers,
It is a stormy morning over the southeastern United States with wide spread rain and a few thunderstorms. Farther west, there is a band of light rain showers moving across the Kansas/Missouri border as a disturbance moves through. A much stronger system can be seen on this mornings enhanced water vapor satellite picture:
Let’s look at this system forming and dropping south this morning. As you can see above, it was located in western Minnesota as of 7 AM, and there was another spinning and weaker disturbance just northwest of Kansas City this morning. This one has produced some light rain. Today will be an interesting day near KC as we will likely have a little sunshine and then the colder air aloft associated with that main upper level low will spread overhead and convective rain showers and possibly even a thunderstorm will develop. Some very small hail is possible later today depending on how unstable it becomes.
4 PM model forecast:
Look at the 100s of convective showers forecast to develop this afternoon, with the most organized band approaching KC at 4 PM. The timing may be off, but it will be interesting and fun to track today. After this mornings disturbance moves by I am expecting some sunshine and enough heating to allow for this activity to form.
This is yet another part of the cycling pattern that was very dry in previous cycles, but it is producing precipitation in this cycle over the plains. This storm isn’t going to produce a lot of rain, but it is still producing measurable precipitation. The upper low is forecast to develop over central Missouri by early tomorrow morning. There may be a few more convective showers or some lighter rain or drizzle early Wednesday. After this system moves by we will have an interesting pattern developing for the end of the week.
The weather forecast for Thursday through Memorial Day have many challenges. I went up to 80 degrees in Kansas City on Memorial Day as we may have westerly flow at the surface as another system drops in from the north. This would be a downsloping flow, but you can’t rule out a little band of showers or thunderstorms Monday evening depending on the timing of a weak wind shift moving across. And, the forecast for Friday and Saturday are also rather complex. Just look at this map above. The NAM model has a band of very heavy thunderstorms forecast to be tracking from eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
Let’s see how the models look today. Have a Terrific Tuesday! I am on Sports Radio 810, so I will wrap up for now.