A Strong Disturbance Moves South From Canada

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Good morning bloggers,

It is a stormy morning over the southeastern United States with wide spread rain and a few thunderstorms. Farther west, there is a band of light rain showers moving across the Kansas/Missouri border as a disturbance moves through. A much stronger system can be seen on this mornings enhanced water vapor satellite picture:

Let’s look at this system forming and dropping south this morning. As you can see above, it was located in western Minnesota as of 7 AM, and there was another spinning and weaker disturbance just northwest of Kansas City this morning. This one has produced some light rain.  Today will be an interesting day near KC as we will likely have a little sunshine and then the colder air aloft associated with that main upper level low will spread overhead and convective rain showers and possibly even a thunderstorm will develop. Some very small hail is possible later today depending on how unstable it becomes.

4 PM model forecast:

Look at the 100s of convective showers forecast to develop this afternoon, with the most organized band approaching KC at 4 PM. The timing may be off, but it will be interesting and fun to track today. After this mornings disturbance moves by I am expecting some sunshine and enough heating to allow for this activity to form.


This is yet another part of the cycling pattern that was very dry in previous cycles, but it is producing precipitation in this cycle over the plains.  This storm isn’t going to produce a lot of rain, but it is still producing measurable precipitation.  The upper low is forecast to develop over central Missouri by early tomorrow morning. There may be a few more convective showers or some lighter rain or drizzle early Wednesday. After this system moves by we will have an interesting pattern developing for the end of the week.

Friday morning:

The weather forecast for Thursday through Memorial Day have many challenges. I went up to 80 degrees in Kansas City on Memorial Day as we may have westerly flow at the surface as another system drops in from the north. This would be a downsloping flow, but you can’t rule out a little band of showers or thunderstorms Monday evening depending on the timing of a weak wind shift moving across.  And, the forecast for Friday and Saturday  are also rather complex. Just look at this map above. The NAM model has a band of very heavy thunderstorms forecast to be tracking from eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

Let’s see how the models look today. Have a Terrific Tuesday! I am on Sports Radio 810, so I will wrap up for now.

Gary

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REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

YeeeeHawww

j-ox
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j-ox

June ’16 was actually quite dry in Lawrence. 1.09″ vs 5.46″/avg.
YMMV // SUD

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

May and June were very wet last year. I suspect this year will be the same.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I want snow.

Three7s
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Three7s

Been so long, I don’t remember what a snowstorm looks like.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

This year almost HAS to buck the snow less trend. I mean, we almoat can’t have less snow than we have scored past couple winters, something will change this year and I predict some significant winter storms to finally return

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

My AG report says long term trend in central US is cool and wet, through Middle of June. About as far from the LRC based prediction as you can get, but has support from GFS and Euro models. So I’m starting to worry about exactly when we will get our beans planted. Not this week, and looking like next week is also possibly wet. They should do well whenever they finally are planted. Also creeping up on Hay season , we need dry weather!!

Three7s
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Three7s

That’s the amazing thing about this area. It’s feast or famine. With snow it’s either 30+ inches or next to nothing. With rain, it’s either near drought levels or constant flooding. Can’t catch a break.

DanT
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DanT

What does June look like for the LRC and severe storms? Have to say kind of surprised that after our early March outbreak, our severe wx season has been fairly calm for Kansas City.

Three7s
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Three7s

I think late June might have some active weather?

Mike Holm
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It’s been a few weeks since your comments on 810 about an 80% chance of a drought and multiple 100° days. Has all this rain and seemingly lush vegetation changed your perspective? I’m almost 50, and I only remember one season in which It has been perfect conditions for my lawn that it just shut off and became dry. That’s what would have to happen, essentially no rain in July and August. I know we’re not getting the rain we got last year, but we’re getting it exactly when we need it. Can lush conditions stave off a drought?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

http://www.pbs.org/weta/thewest/program/episodes/seven/rainfollows.htm For forty years, homesteaders had passed over the western prairies on their way to better land, but now even this rough, arid soil was desirable, thanks in part to railroad company advertisements that described it as lush farmland and to a growing belief that settlers had actually changed the onetime “Great American Desert” by plowing the earth. God speed the plow…. By this wonderful provision, which is only man’s mastery over nature, the clouds are dispensing copious rains … [the plow] is the instrument which separates civilization from savagery; and converts a desert into a farm or garden…. To… Read more »

Dan M.
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Dan M.

This is a nice NW flow with cooler air and some rain. Based on the LRC, can we expect a similar NW flow in the middle of July? Maybe we don’t have the precip, but a nice NW flow in the middle of July would be nice.

mark meyer
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mark meyer

Gary

As we leave cycle 4 do you have any idea what cycle 5 will look like. It appears with the first 4 cycles 1 and 3 were quite similar and 2 and 4 were similar. Is the cycle really 118 days?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Some think that every other cycle mirrors each other much closer than concurrent cycles do, Doug Heady is a big proponent of that theory and I have seen it verify many times. Not a perfect science there but something to it I think

Kurt
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Kurt

Michael, I feel your pain, I was dry here the first 17 days of May and St. Joseph was almost 2 inches below normal year-to-date. Fortunately since Thursday, I have picked up 3.5 inches or rain (3 of the last 4 days had rain). Hope you can get some good rains soon.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I know you guys in K.C. have been getting some good rain, but up here in Maryville we have been getting the short end of the stick! Only recorded .08″ of rain last night. Worried about this summer. Hoping we get some moisture soon! Take care bloggers,
Michael

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Really? Down here in Lawrence…so…much…rain…this spring.