Severe Weather Risks Right On The LRC Calendar

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

There is a risk of severe weather the next two days as the pattern continues to cycle regularly according to the LRC.  As many of you know we have been in close to a 59 day cycle this year give or take a couple of days. What happened 59 days ago? Would you be shocked if I told you there was a severe weather outbreak in early January? There was a two day stretch from January 1st into January 2nd that had severe weather with the outbreak on January 2nd. Take a look at the storm reports from LRC Cycle 2:

43 tornado reports on January 2nd.  The rest of the meteorological world out there has no clue that the pattern is cycling and regularly. This is going to be a big year for Weather2020 and this is yet another example on how our knowledge of the cycling pattern allows us to issue a day 60 severe weather risk that is just as good as a day 7 severe weather risk.  Here are the risks the next two days:

The above map shows the risk for today, and the one below shows tomorrows risk:

I posted this map in yesterdays blog:

It hasn’t been 100 degrees since September 8, 2013, almost four years ago.  Here is a forecast for many 100 degree days in July based on the LRC model which has out performed all other models this winter.  This model will continue to get more accurate as the next few years go by as there are advancements in the works to make it even better. Our energy and agriculture customers have access to this model now and they have access to our Weather Intelligence Reports and videos. And, yes, we have a peer review paper finally in pre submission form, and we are planning on submitting it and presenting it this year.  The above example shows strong evidence to what we have been sharing with you for 15 years in the blogs.

Today’s Set Up:

I hope this verifies as it has Kansas City in the thunderstorm band at around 8 to 10 PM tonight. Some large hail and damaging winds will be the main risk. The risk of tornadoes actually increases as the system moves away and into tomorrow, which just using the LRC would make sense.  Let’s monitor this closely today.

Have a great Tuesday. Thank you for participating in this weather experience.  Today is the last day of Climatological winter. We will look back at the past three months and look ahead to spring in the next few blogs.

Gary

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KurtMr. PeteMMikef00dl3DaveC Recent comment authors
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Kurt
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Kurt

No precipitation on the 00z GFS through march 17th, and growing season started early with all the warm weather. Too bad it doesn’t look to be a very pretty spring unless you like blowing dust

Maybe a large part of the U. S. will share the misery of drought together

Kurt
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Kurt

we need rain badly so it’s not brown and the fire threat subsides, I wouldn’t mind if other areas get to bake to a crisp but no us. It’s bad enough to see brown all winter, but summer too, blah

Kurt
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Kurt

Until the start watering

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I think all the rain will show up in May and June

Kurt
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Kurt

Following the lrc, will there really be many opportunities for rain? I’d like to know the forecast, are we going to see less than 10 inches of rain between April and July? Are we going to have a record low amount of moisture? We can’t even get a front to line up and produce even a quarter inch of rain. It’s going on 45 days with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain up here. I presume the long term ridge will get stronger as the jet lifts north and weakens. I just don’t see opportunity and it… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

Hume,

Here comes the rain to the farm! Big thunderstorms to your NW!

Hopefully KC can get in on some of that blow off and post frontal showers. Got to start somewhere..

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The gap is filling in – maybe we may be lucky and get some rain in Kansas City tonight!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=EAX-N0Q-1-24

Interesting – 8 discreet rotating supercells in that line south of the city – no tornado warnings!

DaveC
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DaveC

Sure was nice having a thunderstorm and amazing lightning all evening in GV!

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Hrrr nailed it,spot on. Storms have initiated to the South and east of metro. We are gonna a get missed if you are to the NW of the loop

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Believe it or not, but Chicago has had even less snow than KC these last 2 months – none!!
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/no-snow-chicago-windy-city-having-non-white-winter-first-n726556

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Now that is simply crazy

Chris
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Chris

Gary,….I can’t remember what I did yesterday let alone what happened 60 days ago. Does the LRC indicate that we will have our chances at rain this spring/summer? Our ponds are very low and ground is hard as a rock

Gary H
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Gary H

Pea-sized hail for a straight 5 minutes. Deck is covered.

Gary H
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Gary H

Got one heck of a hail storm here in Blue Springs.

Three7s
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Three7s

Blue Springs gets nailed. Not even a drop in Independence. Cool lightning, though.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Just started raining and hailing here near Raytown.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Geeze, it’s a nonstop rumble out there. Looks like Lee’s Summit is getting the brunt of it, lasted just a short time here. Right now it’s just to my south.

Trainman
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Trainman

Well looking at radar looks like the west side of town is going to get another blank

Craig
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Craig
Kurt
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Kurt

Won’t need to mow the yard as often if it goes dormant all summer, smiley face

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I need to make 500 bales of hay first! Then it can dry up and get hot, you know, like it does every summer lol

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

If HRRR is correct, KC might not get a drop tonight. The first batch develops too far east and south, and the batch west along the front washes out before it gets here. No rain the foreseeable future either. We need a new pattern!

Craig
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Craig
Kurt
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Kurt

The NWS had commented that the higher dewpoints were only in the lower levels of the atmosphere, I think 6,000 feet and with the southwesterly winds, enough mixing would occur to bring the drier air down to the surface. Hence the red flag fire weather warnings today.

I don’t think this is going to be a blockbuster rain by any stretch of the imagination.

Let’s hope something changes and we can get some wet systems in here in the coming weeks.

DanT
Guest
DanT

Is the front already blowing through the Kansas City Area? Dew Point is down to 52 and in the 30’s near Topeka. How are we going to get Thunderstorms tonight? Is this more of a post-frontal thunderstorm setup? Or is there something else in play with the atmosphere?

Troy
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Troy

If you don’t know that the LRC exists I do not think you have a chance of beating climatology with a long range forecast. It is the only long range tool I have ever seen that works. Without it you are left with Climate Prediction Center’s forecast of equal chances of hot or cold/warm or dry for 90% of the country.

MMike
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MMike

Winter forecasts: Just for the KC area: Accuweather: They called for occasional cold here in KC and a dry winter….that was pretty accurate. Weatherbell: Called for the cold December, but also forecast the cold to be frequent throughout the winter. Called for average precip. and below average snowfall. The theme was cold and this overall forecast was poor. KCTV5: They called for average snow, wild temp swings and a wetter then average winter. Poor forecast overall. Farmer’s Almanac: Shivering cold and average snow….poor forecast. Old Farmer’s Almanac: It called for a mild/dry winter for the same area the LRC called… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

The LRC claims that the severe weather is right on schedule per the LRC calender. However, where was this forecast from several weeks ago? The severe weather outbreak in early Jan. was not in any text forecast either. I agree that it has cycled back through but where was the headline that this would happen. The 12 week forecast for the areas that will see severe weather did not mention it. I know you mentioned those forecasts aren’t accurate and you don’t spend much time on them, but, if you didn’t forecast it there, where was it? Also, you claim… Read more »

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

The air outside appears to be very juicy today. Very humid start to the day for sure.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

HumeDude. Looks like you will be in the mix starting around 6 pm tonight. Here is the latest 3K NAM run. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017022806&fh=18&r=us_c&dpdt= Another squall line moves in around 11-midnight down your way. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017022806&fh=24&r=us_c&dpdt= KC metro looks to be in position for rain/storms between 8-10 like Gary said with most coming in around 8-9pm. Of course we know how this goes…..give it 5 minutes and it will change. Also, for today, highest CAPE is in southeast KS, NE Oklahoma and on over into southern MO and northern AK. Have a GREAT FAT TUESDAY everyone. Don’t forget to get your beignets and… Read more »

Kathy
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Kathy

I am not sure how many on this blog were around during 1980, but I was working downtown then (and still do), and the temps during that June-July were ridiculously hot every single day. Downtown is a heat island and I recall the lows getting to 90 at night. Of course, we had a bad drought that summer as well. I am not sure if this year’s LRC bodes that type of heat or not, and Urbanity, to your point, I know it can and did get hot in K.C., but out in central and western KS it gets even… Read more »

Richard
Guest

Yeah I remember ’80. Many heat related deaths especially in St. Louis.
Wife and I in Olathe we had an old window unit in bedroom that bit the dust. We ended up sleeping out on front porch at night in chaise lawn chairs for 4 nights until we got a new a.c.
2 fans in the house only blew hot air. It was cooler outside at night.
That was one miserable summer. Many 100+ days and 90s at night.

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

If the sun comes out, does that increase our chances of severe weather later? or are we on very fringes of tonight’s activity no matter what?

Kurt
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Kurt

I hope some rain sets up near us sometime soon, .05 for the month of February, unless we get rain before midnight and 1.02 since January 1st. At least we aren’t far below normal YTD, but will need moisture to get things greening up. I assume we won’t have really bitter cold freezing temps after this week, but time will tell.

I am ready for a front to stall on top of me and get some decent rains in here before we crank up the heat in May.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Getting a little carried away with drought talk at this point in the year I think. Also, how many 100F days is the LRC calling for? Specifically? I am trying to keep an optimistic outlook here, maybe we catch enough fronts to keep us in the game. Maybe we get a few to stall out, where does the LRC forbid a front to stall out here? Doesn’t require a powerful functional storm to get wet around here, just a little NW flow at the right time is al it takes. I sure hope I don’t get missed this evening, Everybody… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

130 degree heat indexes?? WHAT??? I don’t think that has ever happened in life. When KC gets to 100+ we usually have very dry air masses in place which will keep the heat indexes near the actual temps. KC struggles to hit 100 when moisture is abundant and the vegetation is green. Case and point, all of last summer. We were too green to get much higher then 95…we certainly had the humidity last year and that’s far worse. The higher the temps go, the drier the air mass is usually here in KC. HUME, I know, drought again. They… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

GFS long range precipitation map has us looking like New Mexico, Arizona, and west Texas. No moisture pattern keeps repeating itself this year. This will be one for the ages, and it’s not like Ag can handle another hit.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Actually a solid chance showing up next weekend. All is not lost, well, maybe the GFS is lost. That model couldn’t figure out 2+2 lately, I don’t buy it past 3 days out. It’s been a fight to get the moisture in place, funny, it’s February and usually fighting dry air this time of year. Next time this comes through we will be warm and moist, so widespread storms will be a good bet next time around.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Summer 1930 had about 10 days above 100F with a high of 107F. Lows were above 80F the majority of those days, making heat indexes around 130F on some days.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary, the weather looks scary. It isn’t for me to say, the weather won’t work out this way, for I see a high July 4th of 104, and I believe the temps will rise more and more, could it be the temps in late July, will be much more high, or could I be ignorant in what I believe, that by late July everything will be brown including the tree leaves? These things for sure I do not know, but add in the LRC, and my confidence grows.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Last night on the air Jeff Penner said winter is done.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I think that has been apparent for a while now.