Cold Air Finally Returns: What Is Next?

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Good morning bloggers,

If you live near Kansas City, then you will not be shocked by this graphic below:

Since the ice storm that affected a large part of the plains, of course it didn’t have major impacts on Kansas City, we have had a very dry stretch with no big end in sight.  The part of the pattern that produced the ice storm will be cycling through in mid March, sow maybe that storm will produce. At this time of the year it is easy to catch up fast but this pattern is not going to change. Unlike other dry starts to the year we are predicting the cause of this one is strong enough to continue as we move through spring and summer. A drought will likely develop  in the coming weeks and months.

Someone tweeted this picture out from The Weather Channel.  If they only knew that this was dominant track #1 as issued by our knowledge of the LRC in November.  Here is one of the graphics from our winter forecast:

Pretty incredible isn’t it?  Have a great day everyone. I am on my way to California and I will check in over the weekend.

Gary

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Larry
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Larry

Snow started falling in NW Lawrence about 15 minutes ago. Accumulating on roof tops and grassy areas.

L.B
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L.B

If you live near KansasCity and you are shocked by any weather graphic you are either stupid or not a native….LOL

blue flash
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blue flash

If you want to speculate and make a little money off the coming drought, buy PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (Symbol DBA). This is heavy in corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar. Prices of these commodities should spike in a drought situation.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

A trade war with Mexico and China could “Trump” any possible drought-induced spikes in grain prices.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I bet all the rain comes in may early June.

Kurt
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Kurt

Well the 12Z GFS doesn’t offer any improvement in drought conditions, once we bounce back above normal temps we will go into more D1 and D2

Ben
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Ben

Gary do you see the drought expanding in to the corn belt states of Iowa and Illinois or more localized here in Missouri? Hot dry weather is not looking good for the corn crop this year.

Richard
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Gary,
Since you know Toby Tobin, have you heard this ? On his radio show today.
Anyone with dogs….have brown spots (urine burn ) on your grass ? Toby Tobin says give tomato juice to them every day to neutralize the urine burn of grass. Lg dogs 2 Tblsp Small dogs 1 Tblsp. Mix it in their food. He has done it for years. It works.

Of course if we have a drought this year the grass will be brown everywhere ! 😊

j-ox
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j-ox

Interesting. Will add that typically it is only female dogs that void their bladder in one spot…whereas male dogs mark in several spots. However, older male dogs will squat to void their bladders when their arthritic hips cease to allow for leg-lifting.

Richard
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👍 interesting. Thanks j-ox.
I do not have a dog. I have a cat. She is getting on in years. 11 now
But Gary has a female dog.

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

REALLY? Way to much information on a dog urinating.

Troy
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Troy

While much of Central and Eastern KS doesn’t look too bad on the drought monitor much of that area had 2.5-3.0 inches in that one storm which is about what the my area averages for the whole winter. It has been the only significant event since this cycle began last fall. If we go that long between events when it gets hot it will be trouble.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The annual rainfall here (109 miles WNW of KC) is 4.5″ less than in KC. 
February has been dry (0.6″ below average) but January’s rainfall was more than twice the average, so the precipitation for those two months is about average. Nonetheless, that is 1″ less than KC’s average.
The air temperature dipped to 16° last night. It is currently 28° and we still have patches of snow on the ground.

Steve
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Steve

I live 20 mi WSW of Hiawatha and had 1.13″ moisture in Jan and only .85″ in Feb so far.

Rod
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Rod

Some recent model runs on the GFS have been showing snow mid march around March 12, so to give up total hope isn’t realistic. Yes it will most likely be rain but we just need moisture so I will take either or a little of both. March could bring a surprise snow especially if it occurs at night.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Rod it seems like every other run (at least) predicts snow about 10 days out and then nothing. But I hope you are right!

Ak
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Ak

How many 100 degree days do you think we’ll experience in KC. I feel some dry heat coming.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

That would be a good summer contest like the first inch of snow contest. Predict the first 100 degree day and how many total.

Terry
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Terry

Gary you’re talking about that storm that produced the ice storm and when it Cycles back through in mid-march what kind of types of precipitation you think you could expect for here?

Kurt
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Kurt

Terry, it’s most likely going to be rain, but may not be enough to remove the drought headlines we are now under. The drought monitor has a large part of our area in Missouri and east and south of us in a moderate drought area now

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

While it’s very early in the season, if the extreme warmth and lack of storms persist we will rapidly go to higher levels of drought severity.

It is time you stop asking about snow, we need moisture and it isn’t promising

Terry
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Terry

I’m on the Kansas side

Kurt
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Kurt

It won’t matter if it doesn’t change we will all be in drought of some severity. You’re on here enough to know this weather pattern isn’t going to give us a significant storm. We are in the dying area for storms in this lrc, and when in drought leave it out

Let’s hope this is only for this lrc and not a multi-year dry spell

Terry give up on snow until next winter, save yourself from asking again