Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Today will likely end with Kansas City receiving its first snowflakes of the month. It likely won’t be a measurable snowfall unless you live farther north and northeast of the city where a very minor accumulation on grassy surfaces is possible.
Let’s begin, however, with a look at what happened yesterday:
The Cycling Pattern As Described By The LRC
There was a small slight risk area yesterday and a few thunderstorms did form. Kansas City even had flashes of lightning and some brief downpours near by. When was the last time Kansas City had thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather near by? Yes, exactly 60 days ago. We have been discussing how we are in the Christmas storm part of the cycling weather pattern, and it arrived right on schedule. Christmas was exactly 60 days ago yesterday.
I awakened this morning and thought about what the risk actually looked like on Christmas Day. The Kansas City Chiefs were hosting the Denver Broncos. Showers and thunderstorms moved across that day, and look at the risk to the right here. Wow! Are you kidding? This is actually a really good example of what we have been saying for years. The LRC provides us with such a tool that we can predict risks of severe weather 30, 60, 200, even 300 days into the future. The risk was almost in the exact same spot as 60 days ago.
Now, here is today’s severe weather risk, and yes there was actually one tornado report 60 days ago today, but the storm had weakened and lifted into Canada. This storm is doing the same thing, but it is holding just enough strength to produce todays severe weather risk:
Now, back to todays snowflakes. There is no guarantee we will see our first snowflake of February. Whether we do or not, most likely we will end up with a trace of snow this month at the most and the chance of going the rest of the season with no measurable snowfall is incredibly possible. This would leave this winter with the second lowest snowfall total ever recorded in KC history. Which would mean that three of the lowest snowfall seasons ever recorded would have happened in the past six winters.
Have a great day. Bundle up! Winter has returned.