First February Snowflakes, Risks of February Severe Weather & The LRC

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Today will likely end with Kansas City receiving its first snowflakes of the month. It likely won’t be a measurable snowfall unless you live farther north and northeast of the city where a very minor accumulation on grassy surfaces is possible.

Let’s begin, however, with a look at what happened yesterday:

The Cycling Pattern As Described By The LRC

There was a small slight risk area yesterday and a few thunderstorms did form. Kansas City even had flashes of  lightning and some brief downpours near by. When was the last time Kansas City had thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather near by? Yes, exactly 60 days ago. We have been discussing how we are in the Christmas storm part of the cycling weather pattern, and it arrived right on schedule. Christmas was exactly 60 days ago yesterday.

I awakened this morning and thought about what the risk actually looked like on Christmas Day.  The Kansas City Chiefs were hosting the Denver Broncos. Showers and thunderstorms moved across that day, and look at the risk to the right here.  Wow! Are you kidding? This is actually a really good example of what we have been saying for years.  The LRC provides us with such a tool that we can predict risks of  severe weather 30, 60, 200, even 300 days into the future. The risk was almost in the exact same spot as 60 days ago.

Now, here is today’s severe weather risk, and yes there was actually one tornado report 60 days ago today, but the storm had weakened and lifted into Canada. This storm is doing the same thing, but it is holding just enough strength to produce todays severe weather risk:

Now, back to todays snowflakes.  There is no guarantee we will see our first snowflake of February. Whether we do or not, most likely we will end up with a trace of snow this month at the most and the chance of going the rest of the season with no measurable snowfall is incredibly possible. This would leave this winter with the second lowest snowfall total ever recorded in KC history.  Which would mean that three of the lowest snowfall seasons ever recorded would have happened in the past six winters.

Have a great day. Bundle up! Winter has returned.

Gary

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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I just stepped outside. There are still snow flurries flying around and it’s cold!!!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Since Gary was out of town you had to figure we were gonna get a bit of snow.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The snow is just now coming to and end here (4:30 PM). The wind driven snow storm was impressive around noontime, and the northwest sides of our tress are plastered with snow. Our visibility was reduced to one-quarter mile for a couple of hours.

Larry
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Larry

Lawrence has had on and off snow flurries since 11:00 AM. Light snow flurries are falling now in NW Lawrence.

Kurt
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Kurt

Yes every potential storm hits this ridge and weakens like letting the air out of an inflated balloon. It’s hard to be believe a worse pattern than last year but yet again we have a way to find a bad pattern.

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

Sitting under a nice burst of sleet here, covered my back deck

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Gfs really killing next week’s storm. Not much of a storm at all, dang it, another bogus non-event.
Haven’t had decent rain since the ice storm that wasn’t an ice storm

George
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George

Counted 32 pellets of sleet in Grandview. We will rebuild!!

Urbanity
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Urbanity

It’s snowing here west of Salina, um..no it’s not, oh wait, yep, yep it is…or is that….it’s a little dust mixed with snow, no wait, the sun is coming out. Whew, that was the most exciting three minutes of winter weather we’ve had all year!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

A few flakes in downtown Independence.

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

some light snow falling here now

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Here’s what they’re getting in Omaha right now. 🙁
http://www2.dor.state.ne.us/webcams/newImages/vid-I80at42nd.jpg?1487962997115

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

and …it stopped.

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Very fine, but moderate snow falling here in McLouth. Well, a touch of excitement at least!

Rod
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Rod

This is for you Terry. GFS showing snow around March 11-12th. Need to look and see if this fits the LRC pattern & if another storm is due in around this time. I know getting snow on the ground is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle but who knows March can bring some surprises. We can hope!!

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2017022412&fh=372&r=conus&dpdt=

Kstater
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Kstater

Looks like a pretty good area of snow moving in if it doesn’t fall apart. Probably wouldn’t stick but we could use the precip. We have already had on and off flurries in NW Lawrence.

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Just saw about 10 minutes of flurries here on the north side of Topeka. Nothing sticking and stopped quickly. So I guess I can say we say snowflakes in February.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Same here in Lawrence

KS Jones
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KS Jones

It is 28° and snowing here (109 miles west-northwest of KC).
The snow is light. Visibility is roughly four miles.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Friday to you sir. Sending thoughts and prayers to you and your family today. A couple of things that have interested my little hobbyist mind about this storm. First of all, this storm tracked close to 200 miles further south than the models showed as late as Wednesday morning. The 12Z Wednesday had this storm still tracking north of Saint Joseph but is has wound up tracking from south of Ottawa to almost Columbia line. Obviously it didn’t change the weather that much, but that is a fairly significant shift in the track. It is also way south… Read more »

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

f00dl3, the local TV stations are doing just that. I saw a plant warning this morning. Can’t cover up trees, but surely small bushes and any flowers that have started to poke up. If fruit trees are budding than maybe use smudge pots like they use in Florida??? FYI, for our area on the weather app, Gary has indicated the possibility of a late hard freeze in early-mid April.

It’s supposed to get down to 21 overnight, and in the upper 20’s Saturday night. Maybe enough to kill off some oak mites 😉

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Would make sense that we don’t really get cold the rest of the winter. Again, just like ’89 when we hit -23 F in December and the lowest temperature the rest of that year didn’t even get under +10F. Our growing season has started. The bush I have on the side of my house has buds starting up. If we had a period of several days of hard freezes I think it’s safe to say that many shrubs and even small trees could be killed for this spring & summer… the fact our growing season has started in mid February… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

How about standing in the rain and thinking it’s a sunny day? Is that weather related or is it political? Ha!
You don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, but it obviously helps.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary I think said he was issuing a spring forecast?

Urbanity
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Urbanity

It’s very likely we will continue this snow-less pattern considering the global warming. In the past the Alberta Clippers would run down from the NW and drop a few inches of snow given the ultra cold air mass in place. I can remember many times a storm would skirt south or east of us but it would quickly be followed by a Clipper that would drop some snow and relieve our disappointment that the storm missed us. Since I’m older now I don’t really care for snow after it’s on the ground, but I do like the magical appearance of… Read more »

Brad61
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Brad61

Just can’t keep politics out of it, can you? So refreshing to read about the weather, and then politics gets thrown in. Sad!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Yeah you are right it is sad, I guess I am having PTSD from the previous 8 years. I will refrain going forward interjecting politics into this weather blog. Not easy to avoid with climate having intersected with politics, and it apparently being the most important conversation to ever be had by mankind….at least according the Progressive Globalist. Dang, I did it again, my sincere apologies.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I didn’t know this was a political discussion blog. Last time I looked it was a weather discussion blog.

I’m always amazed at people who seem to be incapable of NOT injecting politics into every discussion imaginable. They will turn a discussion on what to have for dinner into a political debate. Personally I think it’s some sort of mental disease, like an OCD kind of thing.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LoL….true….politics is everywhere these days. By the way, GO TRUMP!!!! heh heh

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Just a couple of freezes tonight and tomorrow then the warm weather returns.

bench.warmer4
Guest
bench.warmer4

rain, lightning and some hail during the night and now fairly heavy snow in Rock Port. The nice 75 degree days will be welcomed back for sure.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I wonder if it’s because I switched shampoos. I stopped having dandruff around the time we stopped getting snow.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

You’re way tooooo funny for 7:43 in the morning….I haven’t had my next cup of coffee yet. Good thing, otherwise I would have choked on it and spit it out 😉 Shampoo! Anyways, at least I know what will most likely cycle back around in April. I believe Gary had indicated that the 23rd/24th of April may bring severe weather. I have a job site down in southern Kansas where I will be scheduling field work. I will be avoiding this time frame. Don’t want to be out in the open with possibility of tornadoes! I’m just hoping that with… Read more »