From Record Breaker To Snowflakes?

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We shattered record highs yesterday in many ways:

  • Earliest 78° or higher
  • The sixth 70°+ day in February is the most ever for February, and THE MOST EVER for any winter season in Kansas City’s recorded history
  • 79° broke the high temperature record by six degrees

Well, it’s back to reality and a little taste of winter, a big taste if you are one state farther north.  A storm is developing:

As you can see on these two surface maps, the surface low tracks to near Kansas City around 9 or 10 PM tonight. Just south of the surface low it will likely be near 60 degrees tonight with a cold blast following the system as it moves east. There would be significant severe weather if we had more moisture available with this system.  This will be a part of the pattern that will likely produce severe weather in the next cycle, around April 24th, which is my birthday.

The cold blast arrives, and then look how close the snow gets to KC on Friday:

The GFS model is the only model showing snow on Sunday, so let’s see how the models come in today.  The NAM model just came out and it has a mixture changing to a few rain showers on Sunday.

There is a LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index) on Sunday. I had a death in my family, my Stepfather passed away yesterday and I will be leaving for two days on Saturday.  I will keep the blog updated over the weekend as this fast moving system approaches.  Kansas City has yet to see a snowflake in February. This streak could end on Friday. Have a great day.

Gary

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Dave LSRockdocMr. PeteREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
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Dave LS
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Dave LS

Nice 2 min shower in LS with a couple rumbles of thunder.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Lightning flashes here in Prairie Village. To the south.

Rockdoc
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Gary, I’m so very sorry for you and your family’s loss. Take care and safe travels🕊

Don’t worry about the blog. We are grown-ups and can have fun playing “met for the day”. Most important is you are back home. Besides, we may surprise you with our forecasts while you’re gone. We have the LRC to guide us plus several here on the blog that can fill in with finer details and surface analysis. Maybe Penner can join us? 🤗

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Couple Thunderstorms popping down south!
Might clip the farm, looks like it go north and hit Butler good
Didn’t think we had any chance, glad to see something stirring !

Rockdoc
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Hume, do hope your farm gets some much needed moisture. Looking OK this weekend into Monday. Just hope the rain doesn’t go poof. Need to get what moisture we can before this summer and the dreaded heat dome that could form under the anticyclone. I fear this will be our summer, very similar to 2012! Yes, there may be small waves but with build up of dry air it will just evaporate. Our mantra now is fill up the ponds, gentle soaking of the ground. Birds need access to those worms, grubs and insects. They are a month early🐦🐥🐦🤗

Anonymous
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Anonymous

The gulf seems to be a shoe in for you all.. not necessarily, it is “most” always a given and fairly predictable but not so sure it will be this year. I think a lot of that moisture is going east with off chutes to the west. Bad ass storms? yes! somewhat. just not here. we will be good to get one or two heavy rains. In my humble opinion. The ridge is gonna be a slower speedy kinda killer

KAM
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KAM

Gary, my deepest sympathy to you and all of your family and family friends. Thank you so much for all you do. KAM

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Got 0.05″ of rain early this AM (109 miles west-northwest of KC), and the 0.22″ we got Monday hadn’t dried up, so it’s muddy again.
Weather Underground says we have a 50% chance of snow tomorrow (< 1"). The high is predicted to be 33° with a low of 20°.

IndepMo
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IndepMo

If the 540 line stays south of Kansas City, does that mean our highs will be freezing or below during the day Saturday, Sunday, Monday? Cause that is what I am seeing with the GFS through Monday.

Patti
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Patti

Gary, I’m very sorry for the loss of your stepdad. All the best to you and your family.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

NOAA really backed off on the cold air migration, and also placed us in the below average precip. Just yesterday they had our area with a chance of higher than average precip and colder air moving in the 6-10 day time frame. When will they finally look at the LRC (you know how gov’t employed scholars can be so pompous) and place all of KS in the “Drought Development Likely” category. NOAA just needs incorporate the LRC into their forecast mechanism to be very accurate.

Chris Hedges
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Chris Hedges

Sorry for your loss Gary. May God Bless your Family as well.

Richard
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Sorry ffor your loss Gary. Safe trvels

Drought is here

https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/posts/1219959991391975:0

Joshua
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Joshua

Gary, on Christmas Day I was back home near Sioux City, IA. It was 36 degrees with heavy rain and wind (I believe the Dakotas were getting the snow). Anyway, I checked the calendar and told my family they could expect a blizzard on Feb. 23 if it got cold enough. Of course I had to mention the LRC and everyone took it with a grain of salt, but I had them write it down on their calendars… Fast forward to today and back home they are under a Blizzard Warning. Even though I shouldn’t be shocked with the results,… Read more »

Kathy
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Kathy

I am so sorry to hear about your step-dad’s death. I know it’s been a rough year for you. I am still confused about our dry weather pattern. So, with this LRC, can we still have moisture available to make some severe weather in the Spring? And the cycle we were just in…the very warm dry cycle,….is this the drought which will be a newsmaker this summer? I know we will have weeks-long drought periods….but will we have occasional stormy ones as well to temporarily break our drought? I think perhaps Bill in Lawrence discussed this some weeks ago…but can’t… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Kathy – everything changes when the dew points come up (available moisture). Almost every system that has passes us had a dry atmosphere to work with. This storm is no different, Gary mentions we could have strong storms today had there been moisture present. So once Gulf opens up in April/May, we should see some opportunity for storms and rainfall, even with the main storm systems being weaker here. Only need a very weak wave to get a huge MCS if all the ingredients are there, functional storms not needed

Kathy
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Kathy

Thanks for your answer. Also I appreciate all of you who know far more about meteorology than I do. That’s why I am on this blog. So… I was just under the impression that this LRC would block the Gulf moisture from affecting our area. I know that it typically gets more humid during spring. Is this a result of the Gulf opening up in response to the jet stream moving north? I know that last February was dry as well and then we got a lot of rain in the spring. I hope that we can see some good… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

I would disagree with Hume just a little bit on his post (more so on other subjects:)), because I think this pattern shows a dry ridge/low humidity in place across our area for the entire cycle, when the ridge occasionally breaks down it will still have a limiting effect on precip. In my opinion, our only saving grace is the 1-2 day event we had that produced the ice storm for a good portion of KS. But, we know from the LRC the heat returns quickly afterwards and will bring about drought conditions rather quickly. I have to admit, if… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Keith – I do think the gulf will be as open as it ever is. Gulf moisture is always in flux, coming and going so you are right in there will be times it doesn’t line up with a front right. Yet there should be plenty of available moisture for some of them to produce locally, we have to see the pattern in the seasonal variation of Spring to know for sure.

rickmckc
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rickmckc

GFS snow for Sunday afternoon is on the 06z, too. But it’s also showing a surface wind from the S/SE. I can’t remember the last time that kind of a set up amounted to anything. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a “poof” on the snow in spite of the high LLTI.

Peace to you and yours, Gary.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

On a brighter side, this may mean we will get some rain on Sunday into Monday! We need some rain bad now, my yard is looking D-2ish already. Soil is just dust on top, not a good look and the grass is just as dormant as it can be. Just needs water now…..

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Safe travels, may God bless your stepfather, you, and your family during this time.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Prayers and thoughts to you and your family…have a safe trip….

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Sorry to hear about that Gary. I was hoping you were going out to CA to see some of that Sierra snow at Tahoe. Safe travels

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

May God bless your family Gary, safe travels.

Chris
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Chris

Gary,

I’m not a meteorologist but rather a biologist. The LRC makes sense to me in terms it’s cyclical nature (yin & yang kind of this) but what makes the month of October so special? What triggers a new LRC to set up? Also, I’ve read that no two LRC’s are the same, but have you noticed similarities in recent years that are “close” to those of the past, and if so is there anything that can be derived from that? Just wondering if there is a cycle within the cycle?