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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

As you can see above the only real growing dry area is centered over Missouri.  This isn’t what we asked for when the new LRC set up last fall, but we have experienced it, and yesterday was another great example. It’s hard to explain how we missed yet another one, but there are parts of the KC metro area that again did not receive measurable rainfall. How did this happen? Let’s take a look.

When we woke up Monday morning on President’s Day a ridge aloft was just inland over Nevada, and a big ridge was centered up the Tennessee Valley through the Great Lakes states. The huge California storm was slamming into this ridge as it entered the plains states.  This would normally be a rather wet February storm with this type of set up. Out over the California coast that ridge aloft and the next system off the west coast created the conditions for another extremely wet day in California, but the storm that looks wet as it approached KC split into two pieces.

The northern part 1 of this storm will be over the north Atlantic Ocean by this time tomorrow, while the southern part becomes a storm dropping into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm split apart and it leaves KC in a favorable spot for nearly perfect weather today with a high of 71 degrees and a record breaker on Wednesday with highs between the record high of 73 and 80 degrees.

So, I think we can all agree that Kansas City is near ground zero for no weather excitement this winter and it shows on that first dry map I showed today.  These two maps show the snowfall forecast for the next ten days across North America and then closer in across that north central USA.  The snow forecast for Kansas City is now very suspect. I looked closely and that 1 to 3 inch little band comes from less than a six hour period from 6 AM to noon on Monday.  The European Model shows nothing during that time frame. There is NO real storm system that holds together and moves across, so it will leave us monitoring the models for a needle in the haystack type of situation. TIME IS RUNNING OUT.

Have a great day! Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Hopefully it will get a bit more exciting soon.

Sunny is wondering why it is so dry!

Gary

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RockdocEbohleMr. PeteThree7sL.B Recent comment authors
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Rockdoc
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As for understanding weather in the past, there are numerous ways including taking ice cores and ocean sediment cores that preserve the air and water chemistry from when they formed or were deposited that allow for analysis and evaluation of what conditions were like thousands and millions of years ago. The same goes for bedrock materials. These are the record keepers! Consider them as books in a library. And yes, it has been proposed to eliminate the EPA or cut the budget by over 50% which effectively would shut it down. What I don’t understand is some people cry out… Read more »

Ebohle
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Ebohle

Lots of excuses to avoid taking responsibility

L.B
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L.B

considering the age of mankind witch Is a few thousand years. I think we started keeping weather records a couple hundred years ago. So why in the heck is everyone so convinced they know what is going on? May not be your thing, but I think I remember god reserved the right to destroy this bad boy. so you gonna reduce the carbon foot print to please him or are we to change our behavior

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Most are worried about the (perceived) demise of the EPA I guess…?

Chris
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Chris

Remember when it -13 right around early to mid December? When does that circle back around again?? My extended forecast shows highs in the mid 50’s yet, it hit 70 here today, so how accurate is the long term forecast?

Can’t Hardley believe that we won’t get a cold shot with precip?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I haven’t see .25 of an inch in what seems like forever. I am going on well over 40 days with a trace, nothing really since the ice storm and that didn’t even produce much up here.

At least there was a surplus going into December, but it doesn’t show any signs of switching to wet anytime soon.

If April on is supposed to be drier, yikes!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Latest GFS is just awful. I have .25″ of precip in next 16 days, ouch. That’s a terrible way to try and start off a growing season

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

I ran into a little garden snake under my garage door today. He must think winter is over.

Chris
Guest
Chris

So,….when does the LRC predict our next chance for precip will be? It rained here last night and again this morning. I seem to remember a year (06-07 maybe) when we warmed up big and everything budded out only to be froze off by a major attic blast. I’m still hopeful for some winter weather, but at this point I’d take any precip

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Oh and the Global Warming debate is going to get fueled this Summer. With all storms missing us, and the fact the last time this happened was 1930… everyone is going to be hyping about this.

Guess what summer 1930 was like? 20 days above 95F. 8 days over 100F. 107F max temp. Very little moisture, with high dewpoints. Morning lows 78-84F. Heat indexes during one particular 10 day stretch exceeded 110F and approached 135F at times.

Think 2012- but hotter and stickier.

Three7s
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Three7s

I’m comparing this summer to 2012, maybe even worse. It looks like a dead ringer.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

So the EPA is getting shut down? That’s news to me. Gotta love all the political BS on here.

Rod
Guest
Rod

So if one of the systems from late this weekend through March 10 can somehow track south of the area does it give us any hope for snow? It seems with record warmth this week & marginal temperatures to produce snow it will make it difficult unless we can I get an event that can come through during the nighttime hours. Still not putting up my snow tube just yet, maybe mother nature has one more surprise in store for us at least I hope so, but I know chances are dwindling fast.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The only chance of there being snow here is if an area of low pressure can dig into the southwest with cold air in place. Neither of those two things will happen.

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

Gary, Did Chris and channel 5 win true most accurate award again ? That makes 4 out of 5 for them if they did indeed win.
This weather pattern may be boring to a winter weather person like myself but gosh it sure is beautiful out.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I used to moderate a section of a forum, and that section had a thread on the weather. It got to the point where I had to make a rule for that thread that there was to be no discussion on global warming, because it simply got out of hand and completely detracted from the main subject of the weather.

Anyway, speaking of weather I think we should start a change.org petition to ban this darn weather pattern that’s killing all our snow chances. :-/

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Hey Miser, I here you. But in my discussion we are talking about a period of weather related issues with El Nino, something that Gary talks about as part of the overall weather picture. Now El Nino and warming surface air temps go hand in hand, I really wanted to hear Gary’s opinion on the LRC vs Nino’s on temps.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Well, I wasn’t necessarily responding to you, just the overall discussion here.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Not discussing it certainly doesn’t help the situation. Pretending the controversy doesn’t exisit doesn’t do any good either. Now, if we ever have any weather to discuss we can get off it. Until then it’s just something to talk about, and as long as it’s constructive it’s all good.
Was just talking to a guy in Wichita, they got a nice thunderstorm yesterday. The action is close enough I have hope it could spill over here one of these times

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary, the quote in my previous post was just written on Jamstec a few days ago, I would really appreciate your thoughts on this. I am curious about the wording, to me it implies the globe has not been warming since 1998, I have heard this but have never seen a climatology network imply it. If a decadal turnabout to an El Nino state occurs as they say, and we have yet another cycle of warming temperatures for 20 years, then forget about it…we are going to be burning up in parts of the world. If the LRC is the… Read more »

Dave
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Dave

The darn man-made global warming caused that storm to split yesterday. If we would just reduce our carbon footprint, we would have more functional storms here in Kansas City. Pay no attention to the ridge that Gary has mentioned throughout the winter or that the LRC has shown storms to do this all winter. And, pay no attention to the fact that the United States has reduced its carbon emissions by 12.2% since 2007, while China, Russia, India and others continue to produce record amounts of carbon emissions. Oh, and everyone’s favorite continent…Europe (because so many of us want to… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Dave – the USA leads from the front on emission reductions. I think anybody can appreciate the fact that cleaner is better, for everyone and everything on the planet. Who cares what the other nations do, If they are stupid enough to start dumping toxic waste into their streams that makes it ok for us to do that? They will eventually see the error in their ways and quickly start acting more like USA. Although since we are now killing the EPA, we are going to be just as bad as any of them in a few years Silly Liberals… Read more »

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Here’s a quote for your Hume to make you feel better about mankind, from Wikipedia on the 1997-98 El Nino: “Along the Pacific coast of the Americas, the volume of 21 to 30 °C (70 to 86 °F) water was roughly 30 times greater than that of the all the water in the Great Lakes combined. The extra heat energy created by this anomaly was also about 93 times more than the energy produced by fossil fuels in the United States during 1995.[9]” That’s right, 93 years worth of heat from energy sources blasted into the atmosphere by one single… Read more »

Dave
Guest
Dave

You are right…there isn’t a conservative in America who wants clean air and water. Conservatives just want to pollute the atmosphere in their quest for oil and wealth. One of the biggest problems with politics today is that everyone is pained with a broad brush… I guess my family, who own multiple farms and are conservatives, just want to destroy the streams and the ponds that their cows drink from and their crops are irrigated with. I guess my family, who are conservatives, didn’t change the type of fertilizer they use because they weren’t concerned with the type of chemicals… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Good stuff Dave. I enjoy a good dose of your opinion as well others that disagree with me. I bet you do your part on your farm, that’s natural to protect your family and livestock. EPA did have some downright rediculous measures, but it’s about having moderated power and not absolute power. At one point they were talking about fencing off any stream or ditch so a cow couldn’t excrete in the water. ABSOLUTLY INSANE! That move would have broken every farmer in the state. It would have cost us 100K or more to fence our entire creek which runs… Read more »

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

100k would build one hell of a barbed wire fence Hume. Perhaps you are exaggerating

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Dobber, allow me to explain how I am understating that amount. Our entire farm, some 750+ acres has a creek running through it. We would have to build MILES of fencing in order to keep cattle out of it, fences on both sides. Fences on the ditches too! No runoff could be contaminated by manure you see. We build a big strech of fence a clue years ago, had a co tractor do it cuz we were too busy. Cost us like 10K for 1/3 of a mile of fence. I bet wed have to build 5 or 6 miles… Read more »

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, the following quote is from Jamstec. What does this mean? What global warming impact was there from 1976-1998?

“ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F now clearly predicts an El Niño event from this coming summer. This may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. If this happens, such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998.”

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, it was my impression that the LRC would have indicated a better than normal chance of precip over then next 2-3 weeks? I didn’t understand that when you said it because I can’t remember any lengthy period where the atmosphere was set up in our favor. The GFS did as I expected, further northwest with significant weather, and it seems when the GFS gets a better grasp on the initial storm it then corrects for the other systems coming through. But like I’ve said a million times, the GFS is worthless beyond day 6, yet we can use the… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

There are most definitely mosquitoes already flying around.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary so your saying we should give up on winter time now?

Richard
Guest

Terry
Apparently that would be a yes since Gary bypassed your question.
Sorry bud

Terry
Guest
Terry

I think any person that writes a question on here they should be answered. Even if it’s a fast simple question

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary is that a snow map for Monday? I thought it was supposed to be about 60 that day?