What Is Next On The LRC Calendar

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

This Monday begins with a weakening wave of energy moving north up the Kansas/Missouri state line. The huge impacting California storm is now breaking into pieces, and at least this last disturbance will likely barely end this long dry spell with no rain or snow.  The weather pattern may be about to get much more interesting during this next two weeks as we move into one part of the cycling pattern that has the potential to bring Kansas City its first snowflake of the month.

Kansas City just had a 26 day stretch where there was no measurable precipitation and it barely ended this morning. It has yet to snow even one snowflake in Kansas City during the month of February, and an incredible unseasonably warm stretch is continuing to be in progress. What is causing all of this, not just in KC, but all over the Northern Hemisphere?  The cycling pattern as described by the LRC is the cause.  The “ridge” was picked out by our team of meteorologists months ago and this ridge continues to impact so many parts of the United States, none bigger than Kansas City this winter.  What is next on the LRC Calendar? Take a look:

The two maps above are from October 29th and February 24th, the forecast for later this week. A big ridge, one that we picked out in our winter forecast to return in each cycle and it has, forms over the Eastern Pacific extending north into Alaska. This will create a very cold air mass that will move south and affect this weather pattern we are cycling through according to the LRC.

What does this mean? It means that the next few storm systems will likely have enough cold air to work with to produce snow. But, where? Look at the latest GFS model:

The models have been showing some accumulation during the next ten days from three different systems.  Our last snowfall in KC came from this part of the cycling pattern in early January.  Let’s see how it all sets up. Quite obviously on this map, there is a lot of snow forecast to fall over Iowa and Nebraska.  We will look deeper into these chances in the next few blogs.

Thank you for participating in this weather experience. The weather pattern just may be much more exciting in this two week stretch. Let’s have some great discussions. Yesterday was one of the more challenging and rewarding days at the same time.  We reached our goal of raising $130,000 for the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. Thank you to all of those who helped out! Here is a picture from the last few seconds of the Pet Telethon:

Gary

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Kat
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Kat

Gore has made a lot of money propogating this global warming BS…That is the Nexus and you can be sure it is nothing but BS.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Hope that’s a bad run of the 00z GFS, shifted all the precipitation that had been showing up for days much farther north and east. We will all need to be watering just to get things out of dormancy after the cool snap.

I’ll started watering around the foundation over the weekend, going to try and stay ahead of potential dryness if I can

Joe K
Guest
Joe K

Gary,

Just curious, have you ever mapped out the cycles since the inception of the LRC and compared them to weather data we have from the early 1900’s? Not sure if enough data exists however, curious as to whether or not there is some kind of cycle rhythm or better stated, master cycling pattern? something like repeating patterns every 10, 50 or 100 years. Hopefully my question makes sense

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Will it hold above 54 for another 4 hours? If so, we will set a record high minimum for today.

L.B
Guest
L.B

Humme
No offense taken what so ever. Your passionate about your beliefs as am I. Never apologize to me about robust debate. I’m a little older too and do not speak millennial well. (was raised by a Korea era marine) I have broad shoulders so fire away at me all you like I can take it, as I have the feeling you can too!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yes mid April should be a scorcher and we are .6 behind normal for the month, not too bad as February is a dry month. Faired ok up here in January until after the “ice storm” since then it’s been dry

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Im stahing out of the Climate Change debate. All I am not looking foward to is the upcoming beast of a Summer we are going to see. I have a feeling Sprjng will be short lived.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m sure man caused the dust bowls and the supposed holes in the ozone layer too. I can’t believe what people buy into these days. It’s unbelievable really.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

God help us, we need some weather talk about.
Less than .1″ at the farm, it’s like it never even rained already.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Lots of opinions on here today. We need snow storms so we can talk about those and not climate change. Here is my hot take of the day. If we are causing even 10% of the problem, why wouldn’t we try and slow down that 10%? Just my thoughts. On another note, I miss snow.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Because it costs too much to change energy sources in today’s competitive global economy. The EPA is strangulating manufacturing, tax credits are being given out like candy to green start ups, huge sums of money are being transferred to people who are manipulating the american people based on a global agenda to reduce the stature of america. There are some who believe in the cause, and there are some who believe in what the cause can provide for them…and it’s not clean air or a better future for someone else’s kids.

Steve
Guest
Steve

.55″ 15 miles SW of Hiawatha.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

We got 0.22″ of rain overnight (north of Manhattan)
 Weather Underground is predicting we’ll have a 75% chance of getting 0.47″ of rain Thursday night (23rd); a 60% chance of snow (< 1") Sunday (26th) and a 55% chance of getting 0.34" rain Tuesday (28th). If that pans out, our rainfall will be 0.35" above normal for February (not counting the snow).
Four of the days in the next ten are forecast to go below freezing, but only one would be below normal.
And if those predictions hold true, we'll be 1.04" above normal for January & February.

L.b
Guest
L.b

Humme
Your going a little deeper then perhaps you should. No I would not discredit all dentist over a bad one. However if the dentist of the world got together, oh lets say 95% of them and knowingly used misinformation that was designed to sway a political outcome Then my answer would be to view them with extreme skepticism… discredit would be on them, just to coin a phrase.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Lb- sorry if I get abrasive, sometimes I just want to initiate a healthy conversation so I say something a little off cuff. However, I just don’t believe in conspiracy theories. And in order for all the scientists to get together to cook the data, a massive conspiracy would be in the works. That’s just too hard to hide on that scale. Also, who cares what one man said, AL Gore? His predictions are off, but he is an alarmist. I am a believer of data, and the data speaks volumes.

Joe K
Guest
Joe K

Hume, Who cares what Al Gore said? Gore has been the champion of global warming. He has been the face of the cause and is pretty much responsible for creating the current state of ” man made” climate change. I remain objective on the issue as I understand that science evolves however, die hard man made global warming supporters need to acknowledge the failures and discrepancies in the man made theory if they ever want to try and convince the masses don’t you think? If you haven’t already, research what Gore predicted versus what has transpired. Gores predictions never came… Read more »

Joe
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Joe

Even if it has been manipulated?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I don’t know all the facts, but wasn’t earth much warmer during the time dinasours roamed the earth? Wasn’t a large meteor a contributing factor to their extinction which attributed to a climate shift? I think it’s going to take more than 100 years of data to verify global warming, we’ve had extreme dry periods before and we should get through 3 years of lower snow totals. I’m not an expert and just my opinion, but too many extreme thoughts are being voiced on here and really I believe it’s some people listening to media and news and blowing it… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I don’t know all the facts, but wasn’t earth much warmer during the time dinasours roamed the earth? Wasn’t a large meteor a contributing factor to their extinction which attributed to a climate shift? I think it’s going to take more than 100 years of data to verify global warming, we’ve had extreme dry periods before and we should get through 3 years of lower snow totals. I’m not an expert and just my opinion, but too many extreme thoughts are being voiced on here and really I believe it’s some people listening to media and news and blowing it… Read more »

Tim
Guest
Tim

I normally never participate in these Global Warming discussions, but I’ll drop my two cents today. I just love the comments that say something along the lines of “look our climate is warming– we are breaking records that are 100 – 125 years old. Hello? What did people call those temperatures 100-125 years ago when the same thing happened? — they called it weather. Just throwing this concept out there– How does man even know we are measuring weather the correct way? Man devised what we call “time” based on our 1 year cycle around the Sun. We devised tools… Read more »

jeffinks
Guest
jeffinks

We had our first thunderstorm of the year down here in Wichita. I got just shy of an inch at my place. We needed that good drink of water.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Last February we had highs of 74 on the 18th, 72 on the 19th, 75 on the 20th, 73 on the 27th, 67 on the 28th and 71 on the 29th. So 5 days in the 70’s just a year ago.

L.b
Guest
L.b

until we get politics out of our science. I will look at what ever they say with great skepticism. I remember when I used to be impressed by the title scientist, well…..no more.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

That’s on you LB, scientist are still very respected and have my ear when they talk. Funny how we listen to one expert bunch with no scepticism(doctors) and discredit another when its inconvenient for us (climatologists ). Would you discredit every dentist, just because you went a bad one?

Joe K
Guest
Joe K

Hume, Fanatics and the like try and shove their views down others throat and then resort to some form of criticism if and when their views differ. I am all for healthy debate which seems all but impossible regarding “man made climate change”. I for one have my opinions and accept others for theirs. My problem is all the predictions that Gore made so long ago about how the sky was falling and they DID NOT materialize which only further supports science is best guess. As others have already stated, we have only been recording weather accurately for about a… Read more »

CRW
Guest
CRW

Well written Joe!!

Joe K
Guest
Joe K

LB,

Agreed and excellent post. Politics and money will stain any research and ruin the science behind it, the pursuit of truth

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary between now and the 10th of March when do you see the true cold air? Coming down or why ?

George
Guest
George

Good morning, I had posted in this blog earlier this season regarding the plant hardiness zones that were updated in 2012. Johnson county , where I live, as well as a significant portion of Kansas and Missouri were moved from zones 5a & 5b to the warmer 6a & 6b zones. The impact of this change can be felt with the changes we have experienced the past few years. Yes we may get the occasional “Big” snowmageddon but I think (at least for now) that we will experience fewer snow events and possibly more ice/sleet events. I have found over… Read more »

Richard
Guest

I remember that about the plant hardiness zones being updated.
And nurserys now carrying plants they did not carry a decade or so ago.
Makes sense.
Time for us to do here in our yards what they do in AZ and NM. Plant less grass and put in gravel /cactus ! Conserve water.
I think our aquifer is being depleted ? Rockdoc might know about that.

Richard
Guest

NWS KC says it has been 125 yrs since we have NOT had any snow in Feb (in 1892).
Records being broken all over the place
Folks, climate change is real

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I think everyone knows the climate is changing, i.e. it’s getting warmer. The controversy is whether it’s due to man made factors, or part of long term cyclical patterns of warm and cold, this being a warming period.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

If you believe it’s a normal cycle you are labeled as an abnormal thinker. This is what happens when money and politicians get involved in science. I keep hearing from some circles that global warming has not happened in the past 17 years and for whatever reason I don’t believe that. Yet I don’t believe it’s man-made gases causing it either, now maybe WW2 and deforestation played a roll, or maybe God is telling us something. But the blame game goes on the things we can see, and when we saw smog we thought, OMG, this will trap heat, this… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I was doing chores around the creek bottoms Saturday, and my buddies and I got swarmed by Mosquitos. Bad, they were everywhere and very bity. Never in my entire life have I had to put on insect repellant in February , even March for that matter. We are living and breathing Climate change right now, accept it or not. In all my life in this region, if we got a 70 degree day in February it was very fleeting, maybe one or two days. Usually followed by a mighty wallop of cold air, it only got this warm ahead of… Read more »

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

February 1930 was just as warm. These high temperature records we’ve been breaking are that old. Mosquitos are out in force, I was amazed Saturday afternoon at how many of them were swarming and biting. Unbelievable.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Looks pretty warm the next ten days. Hardly even see any temps below freezing.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I was hoping for some rain today, this is just drought showers. Just about everywhere got .1″ or less, it officially rained but this wont help at all. Really fell apart as it approached, giving me anxiety about the coming growing season. Its going to be rough one I fear, get ready to either do a lot of watering.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

If the LRC repeats itself in the coming weeks, I would think the heavy snow would be west and north of where it is currently being depicted. I can’t recall a weather pattern where most of the potentially impacting low pressure systems move from west of wichita to west of Milwaukee, but that strong northward movement seems to be the pattern. If KC gets any snow I would be shocked, even out here west of Salina is a longshot. Gary as we head into the coming weeks do you expect any of the low pressures to act more like a… Read more »