Happy Saturday Weather2020 Bloggers,
Look at the storm coming into the southwestern United States. Oh, wait a second? This isn’t todays storm, this is the one exactly 59 days ago? What did I say? The rest of the scientific world has no idea that this part of the pattern is right on schedule. Take a close look:
Okay, now let’s look at today:
So, what is causing this? Is it El Niño? Is it La Niña? Is it the water temperatures across the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic, the Arctic? In yesterdays blog post I showed the baffled meteorologist statement from the LA Times article in December. It was dry in Southern California during the strongest El Niño when it was “supposed to be wet” according to some very strongly worded forecasts over a year ago. It is wet this winter when it was “supposed to be dry” according to the Climate Prediction Center a few months ago when they forecasted that the drought will continue in California this winter due to their reliance on the flawed ENSO system of forecasting. So, I ask again: What is causing this? Is it the LRC? The answer is yes and no. In the past few weeks we have learned even more and for those of you reading this today, well, you are the very few who understand what I am about to say. It isn’t the LRC, because what is the LRC? It is the cycling pattern as described by the LRC that is causing this storm system to blast California. That is how I am going to explain it from now on so we don’t create anger in my colleagues minds (This is a nice way of saying what I want say about by colleagues). The cycling pattern as described by the LRC is the absolute cause of all of the events that are happening in this years pattern. It quite obviously can not be El Niño or La Niña, right, because the opposite to what these phenomenon would suggest is continuing to happen.
What happens next is just incredible again! What came after this December 21st storm? The huge exodus of Arctic air, a massive warm up, and a big Christmas storm that moved out into the plains the day after Christmas. This is on our forecast to happen again in the next week. What did I just say? Again, you are in on something quite special here. We know what the pattern will look like, not just in the next week but 50 days from now, 100 days, 200 days from now, that is until next October when the miraculous thing happens once again and a new cycling pattern as described by the LRC sets up once again.
We will look at more comparisons later as the new data rolls in. The models have been hinting at a series of storms that may actually impact Kansas City. Now, we will all say “I will believe it when I see it”. Today is Kansas City’s 25th day in a row without any measurable rain or snow. I am not too excited about the 3 AM one hour band of rain that will zip by. Yes, the huge California storm will move past us in around an hour as it splits and falls apart. What happens after that storm moves by may be quite fascinating. Well, it will be quite fascinating. How will it impact our area near KC? How will it impact California again, the Rocky Mountain states, the Great Lakes? Let’s discuss soon. I would say we are due, but we have been due for three winters now.
Have a great day!