What Is Causing This Weather? We Know!

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Happy Saturday Weather2020 Bloggers,

Look at the storm coming into the southwestern United States. Oh, wait a second? This isn’t todays storm, this is the one exactly 59 days ago? What did I say? The rest of the scientific world has no idea that this part of the pattern is right on schedule. Take a close look:

Okay, now let’s look at today:

So, what is causing this? Is it El Niño?  Is it La Niña? Is it the water temperatures across the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic, the Arctic?  In yesterdays blog post I showed the baffled meteorologist statement from the LA Times article in December. It was dry in Southern California during the strongest El Niño when it was “supposed to be wet” according to some very strongly worded forecasts over a year ago.  It is wet this winter when it was “supposed to be dry” according to the Climate Prediction Center a few months ago when they forecasted that the drought will continue in California this winter due to their reliance on the flawed ENSO system of forecasting.  So, I ask again:  What is causing this? Is it the LRC? The answer is yes and no. In the past few weeks we have learned even more and for those of you reading this today, well, you are the very few who understand what I am about to say. It isn’t the LRC, because what is the LRC? It is the cycling pattern as described by the LRC that is causing this storm system to blast California.  That is how I am going to explain it from now on so we don’t create anger in my colleagues minds (This is a nice way of saying what I want say about by colleagues).  The cycling pattern as described by the LRC is the absolute cause of all of the events that are happening in this years pattern. It quite obviously can not be El Niño or La Niña, right, because the opposite to what these phenomenon would suggest is continuing to happen.

What happens next is just incredible again!   What came after this December 21st storm? The huge exodus of Arctic air, a massive warm up, and a big Christmas storm that moved out into the plains the day after Christmas. This is on our forecast to happen again in the next week. What did I just say? Again, you are in on something quite special here. We know what the pattern will look like, not just in the next week but 50 days from now, 100 days, 200 days from now, that is until next October when the miraculous thing happens once again and a new cycling pattern as described by the LRC sets up once again.

We will look at more comparisons later as the new data rolls in. The models have been hinting at a series of storms that may actually impact Kansas City. Now, we will all say “I will believe it when I see it”.  Today is Kansas City’s 25th day in a row without any measurable rain or snow. I am not too excited about the 3 AM one hour band of rain that will zip by. Yes, the huge California storm will move past us in around an hour as it splits and falls apart. What happens after that storm moves by may be quite fascinating. Well, it will be quite fascinating. How will it impact our area near KC? How will it impact California again, the Rocky Mountain states, the Great Lakes? Let’s discuss soon. I would say we are due, but we have been due for three winters now.

Have a great day!

Gary

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f00dl3Mr. PeteThree7sKS JonesRockdoc Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

The water wall is up! All the rain hit it and fell apart to nothing more than sprinkles.

Just like a firewall, waterwalls help protect major metropolitan areas from rainfall and keep them in drought. Just like 2012!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Rain moving up from the south

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, I think that the changing weather patterns over time are due to climate change. The LRC picks up on these changes due to the cycling nature of the weather. Most things in nature function in harmonics and the LRC is an expression of weather harmonics. The cycling is harmonic! I also think the ENSO, AO, PO & other weather tracking systems are struggling based on disruptions in climate. I’m afraid that this will be the new norm going forward. What had been a fairly decent way of viewing weather patterns may not work so well in the future. This… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

I’m not 100% on that. Just this last December, it proved it can get cold enough to snow. Just so happens that we get hit with another 2012 as far as the ridging in the middle of the country. I’m not sure the KC area has ever gone 3 years in a row with less than 10 inches of snow in its history. If it happens again, next year, I’ll say without a doubt that things have changed.

Lsmike
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Lsmike

Had to water the yard today and mowed all the leaves up first. Ready for green grass!!

Chris
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Chris

Has it ever been this warm in Feb? Three years with basically very little winter precip, can we expect that pattern to break anytime soon or is this the “new normal”? If scientist have yet to recognize the LRC, what does that say for climate change prediction models?

Just hopeful for a return of winter one of these years, but right now I’d settle for a wet spring with no drought

Richard
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Wunderground next 10 days Saturday 02/18 69 | 47 °F Saturday 0 % Precip. / 0 in Sunny. High 69F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night 10 % Precip. / 0 in Clear skies. Low 47F. Winds light and variable. Sunday 02/19 71 | 58 °F Sunday 10 % Precip. / 0 in Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 71F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Sunday Night 60 % Precip. / 0.12 in Scattered thunderstorms developing overnight. Low 58F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Monday 02/20 67 | 44 °F… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Weather Underground has forecasted a 40% chance of snow on Friday, February 24th for here (25 miles north of Manhattan), but less than an inch. The high is predicted to be 37° and the low 22°. They’ve also predicted some sprinkles on Sunday the 19th and 0.17″ of rain on Thursday the 23rd. We got 1.29″ of rain in January. The January average is only 0.6″ We got a trace of rain (0.02″) on February 13th and that is all we’ve gotten since January 21st. Our average February rainfall us only 0.7″. I’ve been digging fence-post holes today and the… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Looks warm the next ten days.

Terry
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Terry

Lol

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

good thing the models suck ten days out huh?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Not looking at any models. Just the NWS website

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Saturday morning to you sir. What a beautiful couple days of weather; yes, it is dry but I am going to put aside worries about April-August and just try to enjoy the next 48 hours!!  Just a couple of random hobbyist thoughts this morning that will not include the 12Z data which I am sure will be the exact opposite of the 0Z and 06Z last night. If either the 0Z or 6Z could just verify as they are; I did not look at any temperatures or precipitation types but man the tracks and the qpf were… Read more »