Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The active week of weather that is tracking across the United States has not calmed down yet. Another storm is moving into the western states and out into the plains this weekend. We are experiencing a weather pattern that has never happened before in the history of Earth. This is one of the major aspects of the LRC which is a unique pattern sets up every year in the fall, cycles, and continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer before a new and unique pattern sets up again the next fall. We are currently in the fifth cycle of this year’s pattern.
State of the LRC
We are currently cycling through what we named “The Thanksgiving Weekend Part Of The Cycling Pattern” in LRC Cycle 2. I numbered the similar features from April 27th and November 30th. Remember, we have been showcasing the 47 – 52 day cycle since it set up last fall, centered on 49.5 days. What is 49.5 times 3? The answer is 148.5. And, these two maps are 149 days apart. And, incredibly, 1/2 day later, in that first cycle, the features lined up even more perfectly. Look at the rainfall from each cycle in Kansas City. This five day total was 19% above the entire monthly average for November and 22% above the entire April monthly average in just five days in LRC Cycle 5.
There are seasonal differences. And, in this cycle there is a big block over Greenland which has forced the storms to stay farther south as you can see below:
The upper high that formed over Greenland, which didn’t quite happen during the winter, even though it tried a few times, has forced the jet stream to be a bit stronger and farther south than normal for late April. But, realistically as I showed in the comparison this morning, it is really just the same pattern, but just a seasonal difference. It has benefitted Kansas City by bringing some badly needed rainfall. It’s too bad it never happened during the winter. I did get soaked on Thanksgiving Day during the soggy Plaza Lighting Ceremony, however.
Okay, that took me two hours to analyze and put together. Now, what is next? We are still in this Thanksgiving week part of the cycling pattern. If you remember, that lasted more than just these five days of stormy weather. It was around a ten day stretch in November, and it isn’t over yet.
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms from the weakening storm over North Carolina, and from the new storm system near the Red River valley of Texas and Oklahoma where I am sure storm chasers are heading.
By Friday, the surface gets a little more menacing, what the storm chasers want it to look like. Because of the blocking, mentioned above, a cool late April/early May pattern is now in full force. This is the set-up for Friday:
The surface low, triple point, will be just northwest of Childress, TX and the target chase areas will be ahead of the dry line where there will be adequate moisture and warm air available for super cell thunderstorms.
Now, remember every year’s pattern is unique, and what happens next to this storm is really going to be interesting to watch happen. It is actually somewhat similar to what happened to the storm yesterday, but this time it’s even cooler farther north and this will mess with the surface set-up for Saturday:
I am telling you, I have never, ever, seen any pattern do this type of evolution. Oh, maybe there have been similar patterns in the past, but not quite like this. Let’s see how this evolves. The warm air will get separated from the storm, so the severe weather risks will weaken as we move through the weekend and they will most likely stay south.
Storm chasers better get out there, because after this goes by, there will be a break just like after the Thanksgiving part of the cycling pattern. It will take around a week, but then we can look for the “signature” part of the pattern, yes that big storm that has produced major snows in Colorado in the last three cycles. That is due back in here around the second week of May.
Thank you for participating and learning more about the LRC. Yes, I have been working on this since the 1980s, but we learn more every day. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.