Thanksgiving In April: The Incredible Cycling Pattern

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The active week of weather that is tracking across the United States has not calmed down yet.  Another storm is moving into the western states and out into the plains this weekend. We are experiencing a weather pattern that has never happened before in the history of Earth.  This is one of the major aspects of the LRC which is a unique pattern sets up every year in the fall, cycles, and continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer before a new and unique pattern sets up again the next fall. We are currently in the fifth cycle of this year’s pattern.

State of the LRC

Screen Shot 2016-04-28 at 7.22.55 AM

We are currently cycling through what we named “The Thanksgiving Weekend Part Of The Cycling Pattern” in LRC Cycle 2.  I numbered the similar features from April 27th and November 30th.  Remember, we have been showcasing the 47 – 52 day cycle since it set up last fall, centered on 49.5 days. What is 49.5 times 3?  The answer is 148.5. And, these two maps are 149 days apart. And, incredibly, 1/2 day later, in that first cycle, the features lined up even more perfectly.  Look at the rainfall from each cycle in Kansas City. This five day total was 19% above the entire monthly average for November and 22% above the entire April monthly average in just five days in LRC Cycle 5.

There are seasonal differences. And, in this cycle there is a big block over Greenland which has forced the storms to stay farther south as you can see below:

LRC Cycle 5 April 27 GFS. F

The upper high that formed over Greenland, which didn’t quite happen during the winter, even though it tried a few times, has forced the jet stream to be a bit stronger and farther south than normal for late April.  But, realistically as I showed in the comparison this morning, it is really just the same pattern, but just a seasonal difference. It has benefitted Kansas City by bringing some badly needed rainfall. It’s too bad it never happened during the winter.  I did get soaked on Thanksgiving Day during the soggy Plaza Lighting Ceremony, however.

Okay, that took me two hours to analyze and put together. Now, what is next? We are still in this Thanksgiving week part of the cycling pattern. If you remember, that lasted more than just these five days of stormy weather. It was around a ten day stretch in November, and it isn’t over yet.

day1otlk_1200 (1)

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms from the weakening storm over North Carolina, and from the new storm system near the Red River valley of Texas and Oklahoma where I am sure storm chasers are heading.

By Friday, the surface gets a little more menacing, what the storm chasers want it to look like.  Because of the blocking, mentioned above, a cool late April/early May pattern is now in full force.  This is the set-up for Friday:

3

The surface low, triple point, will be just northwest of Childress, TX and the target chase areas will be ahead of the dry line where there will be adequate moisture and warm air available for super cell thunderstorms.

Now, remember every year’s pattern is unique, and what happens next to this storm is really going to be interesting to watch happen. It is actually somewhat similar to what happened to the storm yesterday, but this time it’s even cooler farther north and this will mess with the surface set-up for Saturday:

4

I am telling you, I have never, ever, seen any pattern do this type of evolution. Oh, maybe there have been similar patterns in the past, but not quite like this. Let’s see how this evolves. The warm air will get separated from the storm, so the severe weather risks will weaken as we move through the weekend and they will most likely stay south.

Storm chasers better get out there, because after this goes by, there will be a break just like after the Thanksgiving part of the cycling pattern. It will take around a week, but then we can look for the “signature” part of the pattern, yes that big storm that has produced major snows in Colorado in the last three cycles. That is due back in here around the second week of May.

Thank you for participating and learning more about the LRC. Yes, I have been working on this since the 1980s, but we learn more every day.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

 

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EmilyBWEATHERDUDEBill in LawrenceJasonDobber Recent comment authors
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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Good Morning to you sir.

If only this block could have closed off like this in cycles 2 and 3. What could have been..

Have a great weekend

Bill in Lawrence

EmilyB
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EmilyB

Bill,

I was thinking the exact same thing when it was raining 2+” an hour at our house on Tuesday. I’m hoping for a most excellent makeup on our snowfall totals next winter! This LRC hasn’t disappointed in the moisture department yet (we’re in Berryton, near Topeka), but I’m rooting for next years round to be a winner with snow totals!

Jason
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Jason

I check the blog every day, just don’t comment that much. Maybe I’ll ramp that up a bit in the coming months. Had 2.2″ SW of Lawrence with last storm. Wouldn’t mind a nice weekend but looks hit and miss.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary said we have 1000 bloggers on here now?

WEATHERDUDE
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WEATHERDUDE

1000 readers…..whoever chooses to actually blog/comment is a different story

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

What happened to everyone? The last few days there were over 100 people who blogged and participated. I would like to take the opportunity to welcome all newcomers, and us old blogger farts appreciate your input. The More, the Merry☺ So, what do we have going on? Well, as Gary has indicated, we are in the wetter portion of the cycle which is great for our farmer/rancher friends? They need the water more so than us urban dwellers since we can turn on our house spigots to water the lawn and plants. As an update/addition, our friends to the west… Read more »

Dobber
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Dobber

How many different entities do you blog under Joseph?

L.B
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L.B

Sounds like a big maybe in the next 48 hrs kinda sort of. I understand. trying to predict the future. I hope its somewhat dry, works both way’s I guess. Joe F? your the only one. I have had you figured wrong. You need this. Everyone needs to feel relevant so if this blog is therapy and helps you keep an even keel then ,so be it

MMike
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MMike

Hey Hume, The Missouri River is running high and out of control up here in the city!! The GFS and NAM on Saturday this last weekend showed less then .05 for Sunday night and Monday morning. (amounts were .30-.60 across the city. The same two models on Monday showed less then .55 for Tuesday’s event. (amounts ranged from 2.45 up to 6.5 inches north of the river) Both models terribly under estimated the event from 24-36 hours out. Now, once we got to late Monday night, both model runs showed a wetter solution. This means nothing for this weekend, I… Read more »

Joe F
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Joe F

Lmao big dogs?
#MIKEDOBBERBFFS

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

MMIKE – I drove by it this morning, definitely rolling high with lots of debris flowing. Lets rephrase ” out of control”, this is Par for the course for going into May as far as Missouri river is concerned. The weekend event might push it a little higher, but far from flood stage and with next weeks quite look there is little concern for flooding. This weeks rain has my creek flowing good again, but still going on odd stretch this Spring with no flood event yet to record. I doubt that holds up through May though.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

It is not just levels here. Remember that downstream more creeks and small rivers feed in. By the time the roll of water hits there will be areas of the rivers that are higher than flood stage.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

In KC, are we looking at a soggy Saturday morning? Soccer game….

Gary H
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Gary H

Sure looks like it. One of my kids has a troop campout scheduled for Sat night, and that looks potentially stormy.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Not a met, but looking at this system now it appears it will blow through here with the main show being Friday night and Saturday morning. We could have some left over showers Saturday, but dry slot should work in by the afternoon and I would bet Saturday night is dry and pleasant for late April. I wouldn’t worry about it being Stormy Thunderstorm conditions for Saturday eve/night, worse case will be a shower. GFS has system almost splitting into two distinct pieces, one going further south into Arkansas, the other going further North into Nebraska. We get leftover weaker… Read more »

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I agree, I was looking back in my recordings and on the 13th and 14th of December I recorded 2.11″ of rain over those two days. It will be neat to see if this happens again in the second week of May! It is sure fun to watch this LRC play out. Have a great day bloggers,
Michael