Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Well, it’s about time. A wide spread rainfall event finally hit the Kansas City viewing area for the first time in quite some time. Now it still mostly missed areas just three counties east in Sedalia with 0.28″ and Chillicothe, MO with only 0.58″. Look at what fell around Kansas City:
This rain gauge was posted by Trevor McDowell in south Independence, MO where over 3″ accumulated at his house. Over 4″ fell at KCI Airport and there has been some flooding. KCI Airport is suddenly up to over 6″ of rain for the month, and above average for the year. Weather2020 forecasted that this pattern just had to start producing, and it took a very long time, but it now has!
The severe weather outbreak did materialize, but it just wasn’t a tornado outbreak. Why weren’t there many tornadoes? The shear, the changing of winds in height, was weak in directional shear, but strong in vertical speed wind shear. What do I mean? The hodographs didn’t have a lot of turning, which means we had a south wind near the surface with also a south wind higher up in the atmosphere, so there wasn’t a lot of turning of the winds aloft as usually happens in the bigger tornado outbreaks. This limited the potential for super cell development, and increased the potential for training echoes and heavy rain. The vertical speed wind shear was strong, however and this is also a very important factor. The winds speed increase as you went 6,000 feet to 30,000 feet up was quite strong and this helped produce some broader rotation to the thunderstorms and helped with the updrafts to produce some of the hail that fell.
Severe weather reports yesterday:
As you can see, there were 458 total severe weather reports, but only 5 tornado reports. Now, this storm isn’t quite done yet. Let’s look into today’s set-up.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from southern Iowa extending south to the Gulf coast of Louisiana. This water vapor satellite picture, enhanced with the colors showing the most water vapor and the highest cloud tops, shows this storm quite well this morning:
A surface low is occluding as this storm drifts across Kansas and Nebraska. We will be monitoring disturbances rotating around the main storm for what may end up being an interesting band of convective showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
We will look ahead to the weekend storm in tomorrow’s blog. Thank you participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Let us know if you have any questions and have a great Wednesday.