Recap Of Severe Weather Tuesday & A Look Ahead

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Well, it’s about time. A wide spread rainfall event finally hit the Kansas City viewing area for the first time in quite some time.  Now it still mostly missed areas just three counties east in Sedalia with 0.28″ and Chillicothe, MO with only 0.58″.  Look at what fell around Kansas City:

rain gauge2

This rain gauge was posted by Trevor McDowell in south Independence, MO where over 3″ accumulated at his house.  Over 4″ fell at KCI Airport and there has been some flooding.  KCI Airport is suddenly up to over 6″ of rain for the month, and above average for the year.  Weather2020 forecasted that this pattern just had to start producing, and it took a very long time, but it now has!

The severe weather outbreak did materialize, but it just wasn’t a tornado outbreak. Why weren’t there many tornadoes?  The shear, the changing of winds in height, was weak in directional shear, but strong in vertical speed wind shear. What do I mean? The hodographs didn’t have a lot of turning, which means we had a south wind near the surface with also a south wind higher up in the atmosphere, so there wasn’t a lot of turning of the winds aloft as usually happens in the bigger tornado outbreaks. This limited the potential for super cell development, and increased the potential for training echoes and heavy rain. The vertical speed wind shear was strong, however and this is also a very important factor. The winds speed increase as you went 6,000 feet to 30,000 feet up was quite strong and this helped produce some broader rotation to the thunderstorms and helped with the updrafts to produce some of the hail that fell.

Severe weather reports yesterday:

today

As you can see, there were 458 total severe weather reports, but only 5 tornado reports.  Now, this storm isn’t quite done yet. Let’s look into today’s set-up.

Today’s pattern

day1otlk_1200

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from southern Iowa extending south to the Gulf coast of Louisiana.  This water vapor satellite picture, enhanced with the colors showing the most water vapor and the highest cloud tops, shows this storm quite well this morning:

SAT_EUS_WVENH

A surface low is occluding as this storm drifts across Kansas and Nebraska. We will be monitoring disturbances rotating around the main storm for what may end up being an interesting band of convective showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

We will look ahead to the weekend storm in tomorrow’s blog.  Thank you participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Let us know if you have any questions and have a great Wednesday.

Gary

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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Lake Perry is on the rise!!!!

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Well it is good that the Army Corps Lakes are doing their jobs. Preventing excessive flooding and reserving water for future release. As a bonus, the lakes can be used for recreation.

Hope you have good water for sailing this summer:) No fun tipping with mast in the mud 🙁

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

Y’all know that’s the Mormon Garden of Eden getting tornated right now, doncha?

They call it Adam-Ondi-Ahman

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

Off topic, but I just made my reservation in Hermann for August 20 and 21, 2017. They are on the path of totality for the total eclipse, but the place I called hadn’t heard a thing about it. Saw a couple of articles already about people starting to book hotels along the path, including St. Joe. GARY WE NEED CLEAR SKIES on August 21, 2017!

Kathy
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Kathy

Just a sidenote…saw the Ch. 41 news van parked next to Fishing River in Mosby this morning on my way into work. Hope it made it out of the mud okay.

Jack
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Jack

Couple thoughts on yesterday’s weather and how all the meteorologists handled it. I thought 41 handled it extremely well saying there would be a line of storms around 10-11 o’clock with low tornado threat and good hail and wind threat which is exactly what happened. I thought NOAA handled it very poorly…that PDS tornado watch was extremely way out of proportion and they have done things like that in the past. If they keep doing things like that people will stop taking their forecasts seriously. The talks of the high risk should have never really been said… Their 10% tornado… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

The PDS watch was a complete joke ( Particularly Dangerous Situation ), PDS is supposed to be reserved for the most imminent of threats as a Tornado outbreak is underway. Used to be we could easily go by the year and maybe never see a PDS watch, now they are just itching to get a PDS issued at every “possible” outbreak. Keep crying wolf like that and we will get disastrous outcomes, NWS needs to wake up!

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

Maybe they have ramped up the PDS’s since they found out in 2011 how few people take warnings seriously and understand. I heard some people in Joplin thought the second siren the heard was an “all-clear” like in the World War II Blitz or something. And of course we all know people who pooh-pooh the warnings (my husband!) I can’t make people take warnings seriously, but I heard that’s why they also changed some of the names of risk categories from “Slight” to “Enhanced.” My guess is they’re trying to get more word-of-mouth out there on potentially threatening days. Also… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

Hume,

I hope the current trend continues on radar, if so, all of it would miss to our NW. We need a miss right now, it’s a wet mess around the city…that’s of course if the line of storms don’t develop further south.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Solid storms now developing out west, KC metro will probably get one more line yet today before this all clears out. Especially areas north of I-70, looks like this wave might pull away to the NW too fast to clip south side.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

3.9 inches in Lenexa yesterday night. Poured down dime size hail for 10 minutes. Numerous flooded areas near Liberty – went running from east Liberty to near Mosby – some farms were flooded and creeks full/flooded, but roads were above water at 5-8 am so no water issues!

Storms firing west of Topeka. Round 2 today!

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Had a 2.63″ total for the last three days up here in Maryville. Ground has pooling all over. Grass is green as I have seen it in a long time. Need to mow, but it just started to rain again! Hopefully tomorrow. Have a great day bloggers!
Michael

MMike
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MMike

The HRRR model is indicating storms firing west of here and rolling through this afternoon, I hope not, it’s so wet outside that the concrete is saturated.

Joe F
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Joe F

Not in Sedalia or Hume….sprinkle some lawnboy mojo on them drought boy.

Dobber
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Dobber

Ha

LP
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LP

Can this Joe F guy please be kicked off the blog? He clearly isn’t here to discuss weather, and his behavior is consistently terrible.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Agreed…can’t imagine why Gary hasn’t done so already.

Dobber
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Dobber

He’s an old friend LP, been around along time. Gary’s got a dog leash and muzzle on him now. Keeps him in check for the most part. This was achieved by starting weather 2020. that is why he stays under control for the most part in the old days it was a lot worse. Cheers to the drought rains

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Nice .8″ at the Farm, not complaining as most cells had big hail yesterday and we missed that so thankful we just got rain. Still missing on the big rains down here, not as bad as Sedalia’s pattern but just a odd rain shadow down there for whatever reason. Glad we had a Tornado bust, the atmosphere was primed for big thunderstorms and we could have had strong long track wedge Tornados with that setup had the shear been present.

Baseball Mike
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Good morning Gary–We had 4.20 inches and our daughter and son-in-law had 6.50 inches just to our southeast by 10 miles–so I am around 11.00 inches so far ahead at this point from last year in which I recorded over 50 inches. Again I am not expecting that much this year but more this weekend! Our border collie-Katie is terrified if storms—Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good morning to you sir. Picked up close to 3 inches last night; the ponds and creeks are really flowing this morning smiley face. For my little neck of the woods cycle 4 and cycle 5 have pushed this LRC to the conference title and punched its ticket to the Big Dance; how it plays out there remains to be seen, but since March 1st I have received close to 9 inches of rain and 3 inches of snow; not a bad early spring performance. Yesterday was a fascinating day to follow and to watch that boundary as it… Read more »

Ben
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Ben

Nice rain here in Chillicothe with 6 tenths. Parts of North central MO to the East of here stay dry and have missed nearly every rain. Looks like a pattern that may continue all year.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

We were never in a drought

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Good morning Gary. I meant to tell you yesterday that the photo of the hail stone was really neat in that it showed the layers of ice accumulation. Never saw anything like that. Also Sunny looked cute as ever. Hope the kids came through the storms OK. Great explanation on shear and why tornadic supercells did not form. So I take it that the wind needs to rotate/change directions as it rises upwards at certain speeds vs the speed of rising straight up. In any case, I’m glad that no tornado outbreaks occurred. For what it’s worth, the old empty… Read more »

Joe F
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Joe F

MMike and Dobber’s “wet drought 2016” continues.
Those two crack me up lmao!

Dobber
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Dobber

The drought mongers need to go into hibernation for awhile.