Severe Weather Risk Increases

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5:52 PM Update

Topeka is about to get another one. This is the third cell to come over this area, and this one is a strong line. Kansas City has to wait another few hours…….again.  Michael, and other Topeka residents, let us know how much rain you receive.

7

 

4 PM update:

Strong thunderstorms are approaching. You can watch us live at kshb.com or on 41 Action News. The risk of severe weather is increasing. I won’t be able to check in for a while! Stay safe everyone!

Previous entry below:

Good morning again Weather2020 bloggers,

Look at this hail stone that fell over Kansas City this morning. You can see the original raindrop that froze, and then the violent process to create the layers. There are at least four layers, which means this hailstone went up and down inside the turbulent updraft which was likely right next to the downdraft. It got caught in it and formed into this quarter sized hail stone:

Hail Layers

How to report hail? Use this chart:

Hail

The risk of severe thunderstorms is increasing across the plains today. There is a chance of a significant to major severe weather outbreak. In big outbreaks morning thunderstorms that happen early and then move off are showing some of the cards that will be in play later in the day. The fact that these thunderstorms are moving towards Kansas City this morning indicates that there is a good chance they will target this area again this evening.

DSCN3096

Sunny The Weather Dog is showing the big cumulonimbus cloud building over her head. Could the “ice” finally be breaking on the overall drier pattern. We have had adequate rains, but nothing wide spread.  This could be changing in the next ten days with a series of storm systems moving out into the plains.  Sunny looks wet and sad because she really didn’t like posing in the chair, and she had just ran through some sprinklers. Now, on truly breaking the “ice”, areas just southwest of this complex of thunderstorms are still quite dry.

Screen Shot 2016-04-26 at 7.16.02 AM

These thunderstorms were already producing some large hail as of 7:30 AM.  That big thunderstorm complex northwest of KC is turning southeast. This has to be watched closely for a bowing out and possible high wind event. So far there hasn’t been much wind, mostly hail.

Severe Weather Set-up For Later Today

There is a good chance of a major severe weather outbreak today. The largest risk appears to be setting up from the Nebraska/Kansas border south through Wichita, KS and down through the middle of Oklahoma.  This is targeting the traditional tornado alley region:

day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

The yellow hatched area indicates a 10% chance of a strong tornado within 25 miles of any point. This is pretty strong, but not the highest category. Kansas City is still in the 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot.  Everyone should be monitoring this very closely. I will be quite distracted at 41 Action News tonight and I will check into the blog from time to time if I even get a chance.  We will also be updating the KSHB blog as well.

The morning thunderstorms may affect the afternoon set-up. But, it also may just strengthen the warm front and make it even more threatening. I am not sure yet. I will analyze the new data and finish this blog by noon today, so  check back in….

After analysis of the 12 PM surface map, the warm front and outflow boundary have made it to Emporia where it is now stalling. It will likely begin drifting north.  The surface pattern is just now beginning to reorganize. The moderate risk is still in place, in the same spot as earlier. We are expecting explosive development of thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening and this activity would then move north to northeast as a strong wave rotates around the base of the upper level storm.

There is another interesting setup for Wednesday, and then another outbreak look to around Saturday. Let’s stick to today for now.

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Have a great evening and stay safe!

Gary

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Joe FMr. PeteRockdocwaldo weatherAuri Recent comment authors
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Joe F
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Joe F

Mike and Dobber’s wet drought 2016 continues. Lmao!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Power is out. Royals are losing. I’m out. Good night.

waldo weather
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waldo weather

Have already picked up 2.31 since it started! WOW!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I’m afraid to look in old empty cat litter box on balcony. Was planning on turning it into planter. Last time we had rain like this it filled with ~4 inches. It rained ? here, not just ?& ?. Well this will alleviate some of the abnormally dry conditions, but due to the rainfall intensity and dry hard ground a lot of the rain will just run off. A lot better than nothing. Am hopeful that maybe Saturday’s rain will be lighter and will soak in. This rain is not too good for farmers who just planted, seeds can wash… Read more »

Auri
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Auri

Small hail in Liberty area, raining cats and dogs

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Still no power. Watching Royals on my iPhone.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

OK. Rain is subsiding here. Finally got my outdoor furniture power washed! Possible tornado south near Archie heading towards Garden City, Cass County and Johnson County MO! KCTV 5 reporting live. Have not checked in with KSHB. Was watching Colbert when this came on. Warning till 11:15!

WienerDogWonder
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WienerDogWonder

I’m loading up the Arc at 75th and Mission if anybody wants a lift. Holy torrential rain Batman!

Bob
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Bob

Lots of rain!

waldo weather
Guest
waldo weather

Had a little pea size hail, nothing to brag about, and of course heavy rain.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Total power loss now. Whole street is out.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Wow, no hail here at 95th and Mission, yet. Just pouring cows, no loss of electricity yet! Hope you and FAMILY will be OK Mr. Pete. If you need anything give a shout out here. I’m only about 5 minutes drive to your neighborhood.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Heavy hail now in PV.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Well, based on Doplar radar a really “heavy” cell should be moving into my neighborhood in about 3-5 minutes. Deep reds with small purple areas. I’ll be reporting on winds and hail. Gosh, my NOAA radio keeps going off. Oh geeze it just hit. Pouring cows, not cats and dogs!

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Mr. Pete. They’re saying up to quarter size hail heading our way. Dang. No garage 🙁

jeffinks
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jeffinks

Well we have flooding here in Wichita over 4 1/4 inches of rain so far. Still coming down. lots of hail damage also. Hope you all get alot of rain as you all need it.

waldo weather
Guest
waldo weather

Storms really coming together over Ottawa and just about to be over Richmond. Heavy hail via the radar.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

What do you look for in the radar indicating heavy hail? Have an example?

Three7s
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Three7s

With the radar I’m looking at, there isn’t anything really obvious. I’d imagine the deeper the colors=the higher the cloud tops, which equates to the potential for larger hail. (that is the case with the storm over Ottawa, which is heading for the Metro)

waldo weather
Guest
waldo weather

I have RadarScope, about 95% of the time its hail when its in that purple 65 dBZ. Could be wrong, but from what I have used with it, its normally hailing in those spots

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Thanks you guys! Really big smile. I hope this does not go to mod, really sad face. I will look for the specific dBZ.

waldo weather
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waldo weather
Waldo Weather
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Waldo Weather

Come on this way rain! The West of us is getting it good!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Another potential round of severe weather is predicted for this Saturday. If you don’t like thunderstorms, hail and possible tornadoes you can head west over to Colorado and Wyoming where upwards of 15″ of snow is modeled through Sunday!

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016042618&fh=120&r=us_c&dpdt=

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Lightning in OP – PV, minor rain, mostly light sprinkles at 95th and Metcalf driving over to PV @ 8 o’clock. Let cats out on balcony before the rain comes. I’m hopeful that due to less sunshine today over KC and less warming that we will miss the more severe storms due to less stability tonight. Current radar shows most storms/rain is located West towards Lawrence with small cells just west of OP and over Lenexa. KPR said that there are areas around central and north central Kansas, including near Topeka, reporting ~2″ of rain in an hour with flash… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

As a whole, the NWS really missed it on this “severe weather outbreak”. Really nothing special on the tornado front. Just your typical hail and high winds in the areas that many thought could be a massive tornado outbreak. Oh well, can’t win them all.

I’m not saying I wanted to see otherwise, would just be nice for the NWS to own up to their over-hyping, which I’m sure they won’t.

Larry
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Larry

Pea-sized hail in NW Lawrence with a heavy thunderstorm. The hail is covering the grass.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Looks like the activity south of Topeka is thinking about heading our way.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I felt a few drops in Lee’s Summit a few minutes ago. There’s actually a very small cell with some rain and lighting to the south. Lots of thunder now as well.

That’s a really impressive line of showers extending from Omaha all the way south of San Angelo, TX.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Strong lightening storm in PVKS right now. No rain.

BIG PAPPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPPA POOF

This severe weather event has been more disappointing than my last marriage.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Perhaps our donut hole around KC, aka the Dome, will protect us this time. During the winter we did not get snow due to this feature.

A lot of action in Oklahoma right now, at least on TWC. They showed Witchita earlier. Several storm chasers in Kansas now. You can click on the green circles to see what they are reporting and streaming video.

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

MikeL
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MikeL

Gary, .40 here in SW Topeka as of 6:30 PM with heavier rain moving back in.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

YOUD think Gary would have time to come talk on this blog, you know, with nothing happening weatherwise in KC now

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

QQ

jeffinks
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jeffinks

Hope you all are doing better then we are down here in Wichita ks, Have had hail the size of hen eggs down here.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Poof.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Did the national forecasters blow it? I’m not seeing any evidence of any “tornado outbreak” anywhere, not even down in the PTD area. They usually get this kind of stuff right, so it they were this wrong…their cred takes a hit.

Joe F
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Joe F

You are so smart.

shoedog
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shoedog

While the direction of the cells are mostly south to north, is the entire front moving West so that KC will indeed see the impact of some heavy rains this evening or will the front push Northward and miss KC?

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

I don’t think we will be missed. Usual scenario is supercells with isolated tornadoes after the heat of the day in east-central Kansas, congealing into a mesoscale convective complex, bow echo developing on the southeast quadrant, accelerating into the metro late evening with sustained 50-60 mph wind and torrential rain.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Thank you for the response.

shoedog
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shoedog

Thank you for the feedback, thought that was suppose to happen but was concerned watching radar.

BIG PAPPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPPA POOF

POOF POOF POOF

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Looking at the 26 UTC Surface charts Emporia is now at 77 degrees with dew point of 65; Salina now has a dew point 49 which I think puts the dry line just east of Salina into Wichita. I am guessing that that warmer moist air over Emporia will advance into our area and that line of storms currently SW of Emporia will be our main show tonight. I would think that with the warm front through the area that this line will hold together better than the one that just kind of whimpered through with the warm front Will… Read more »

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Looking to me more like a squall line/bow echo event for us later tonight, as opposed to a supercell tornado threat.

Three7s
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Three7s

I agree with you. I don’t think the storms will be that bad, but should be good for some high winds and small hail. I think it would’ve been a lot worse if it we didn’t get all that rain this morning.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Storms approaching KC Metro appear to be weakening. Stable air?

Three7s
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Three7s

Yep, I don’t think there was enough sun to really destabilize things that fast. As expected, everything is out west. I guess we’ll see later?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It’s that force field protecting us once again.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Sirens going off in Manhattan, KS. Talked to my daughters there. Small hail in town, but much bigger hail to the southeast of Manhattan. Radar indicated rotation southeast of town.

l.b
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l.b

look’s like a heavy rain event for us. I don’t think we will be unstable enough for much else thank goodness

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

PDS ISSUED for TX/OK

Joe F
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Joe F

Robert is back. I thought you left!

MMike
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MMike

I’m positive most wish that of you Joe…

Flash flood watch in this drought….how is that even possible??

Joe F
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Joe F

Ask Hume MMike.

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

Vernon county,aka Sahara desert

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

LoL MMike! So true. I generally don’t even read his comments.

It’s cooler and windy here…I dont think the severe weather, at least tornado wise, will be bad here in Lawrence after a broken line just came through here.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

You can really see the dry line and the boundary/warm front on the current visible satellite imagery; really a cool pic.

Bill in Lawrence

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Clarification: these are the observations of a hobbyist and a winter hobbyist at that; please know they are probably way off base.

Looking at the current radar, there appears to be a line trying to form from Emporia to the SE; I am guessing these are forming right along the boundary from this morning/warm front.

There is also some pretty distinct cells south/SW of Wichita which I think are along the actual dry line.

Bill in Lawrence

DD
Guest
DD

Full sun on the Plaza as well.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Sorry one last observation; apologize for all of the disjointed posts. Working and trying to follow at the same time

We have full sun here in Lawrence but our wind is still from the NE so the boundary is still to our south

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Oops Correction; they are firing Wichita south.

I can’t find what the ID of PTT is in Kansas-I think it is Pratt but the dry line is through there and seems to be moving right into Wichita.

Jack
Guest
Jack

I would think the moderate risk would be more west if the dry line is already towards the Wichita area because is smack in the middle of the moderate risk and maybe they should be on the western side of it.. just some thoughts.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

The dew point in Wichita is 69; in Dodge City it is 27; in Pratt it is 35. That is a dry line

You can see on radar some storms beginning to fire west of Wichita along the dry line

Bill in Lawrence

Hillsdale_Bruce
Guest
Hillsdale_Bruce

Happy Belated Birthdays to Gary & Sunny! Thanks in advance tonight Weather Team.

Gary H
Guest
Gary H

I agree. I anticipate this will be a very active weathercasting event on all broadcast networks tonight.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Tornado Watch just to our west. Tornadoes HIGH. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?region=emp

Jack
Guest
Jack
Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Still in mod Gary…you must be in meetings with your mets going over lates data.

Oh well….

craig
Guest
craig

MD from the SPC. Tornado Watch soon:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0456.html

Jack
Guest
Jack

Hello, Gary! I am hoping you will have some time to read and respond to some of the comments today. Looking at the satellite picture..http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?region=emp It looks like the outflow boundary is sitting from Emporia to Iola and Pittsburg. It is in the mid to upper 70’s in Emporia with the Dew Point in the upper 60’s and maybe hitting 70… with that outflow boundary sitting there couldn’t the area in southeast Kansas be a place where we could see rapid development? And then those storms would ride towards KC and we could be looking at something interesting today? Just… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good Afternoon Everybody. Taking a quick break while on lunch. Something else to think about in addition to CAPE. Gary had mentioned it the other day in response to my blog. He mentioned shear. I found this nice explanation on shear, supercells and tornados. http://www.tornadochaser.net/windshear.html Here is a link showing Surface based CAPE plus 3 different readings for wind directions at 10 meters, 850mb and 500mb. This is for 7pm tonight. You can toggle through time. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=crossover&rh=2016042616&fh=8&r=us_c&dpdt= Also, here is the energy helicity indes map at the same time. The EHI combines CAPE with helicity. Helicity deals with low level… Read more »

Joe F
Guest
Joe F

Big dogs people! I hope Alice keeps her eye to the sky tonight.

Adam
Guest
Adam

ya there’s solid clearing happening now in south johnson county ks.