5:52 PM Update
Topeka is about to get another one. This is the third cell to come over this area, and this one is a strong line. Kansas City has to wait another few hours…….again. Michael, and other Topeka residents, let us know how much rain you receive.
4 PM update:
Strong thunderstorms are approaching. You can watch us live at kshb.com or on 41 Action News. The risk of severe weather is increasing. I won’t be able to check in for a while! Stay safe everyone!
Previous entry below:
Good morning again Weather2020 bloggers,
Look at this hail stone that fell over Kansas City this morning. You can see the original raindrop that froze, and then the violent process to create the layers. There are at least four layers, which means this hailstone went up and down inside the turbulent updraft which was likely right next to the downdraft. It got caught in it and formed into this quarter sized hail stone:
How to report hail? Use this chart:
The risk of severe thunderstorms is increasing across the plains today. There is a chance of a significant to major severe weather outbreak. In big outbreaks morning thunderstorms that happen early and then move off are showing some of the cards that will be in play later in the day. The fact that these thunderstorms are moving towards Kansas City this morning indicates that there is a good chance they will target this area again this evening.
Sunny The Weather Dog is showing the big cumulonimbus cloud building over her head. Could the “ice” finally be breaking on the overall drier pattern. We have had adequate rains, but nothing wide spread. This could be changing in the next ten days with a series of storm systems moving out into the plains. Sunny looks wet and sad because she really didn’t like posing in the chair, and she had just ran through some sprinklers. Now, on truly breaking the “ice”, areas just southwest of this complex of thunderstorms are still quite dry.
These thunderstorms were already producing some large hail as of 7:30 AM. That big thunderstorm complex northwest of KC is turning southeast. This has to be watched closely for a bowing out and possible high wind event. So far there hasn’t been much wind, mostly hail.
Severe Weather Set-up For Later Today
There is a good chance of a major severe weather outbreak today. The largest risk appears to be setting up from the Nebraska/Kansas border south through Wichita, KS and down through the middle of Oklahoma. This is targeting the traditional tornado alley region:
The yellow hatched area indicates a 10% chance of a strong tornado within 25 miles of any point. This is pretty strong, but not the highest category. Kansas City is still in the 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot. Everyone should be monitoring this very closely. I will be quite distracted at 41 Action News tonight and I will check into the blog from time to time if I even get a chance. We will also be updating the KSHB blog as well.
The morning thunderstorms may affect the afternoon set-up. But, it also may just strengthen the warm front and make it even more threatening. I am not sure yet. I will analyze the new data and finish this blog by noon today, so check back in….
After analysis of the 12 PM surface map, the warm front and outflow boundary have made it to Emporia where it is now stalling. It will likely begin drifting north. The surface pattern is just now beginning to reorganize. The moderate risk is still in place, in the same spot as earlier. We are expecting explosive development of thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening and this activity would then move north to northeast as a strong wave rotates around the base of the upper level storm.
There is another interesting setup for Wednesday, and then another outbreak look to around Saturday. Let’s stick to today for now.
Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Have a great evening and stay safe!