Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tuesday

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Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC. I will show you where we are in a minute, but let’s begin with the day 2 severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center:

day2otlk_0600

The SPC has already placed a large moderate risk area from Nebraska south across central Kansas into Oklahoma.  Conditions are coming together that may result in a major severe weather outbreak tomorrow.  Here is a picture of some large hail the fell over Kansas yesterday. Carl Hobi, one of the 41 Action News storm chasers, experienced this. I doubt his car is in good shape:

hail

Tuesday’s Set-up:

1

The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is forecast to be very high along and ahead of the dry line, and near the warm front and triple point.  This is a lot of energy that would be released if thunderstorms form, when thunderstorms form.

2

This is a rather complex set-up for Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Just like the LRC, every pattern is unique each year, and every severe weather set-up is unique. This one features a low pressure area forecast to be near the Colorado/Kansas border near Goodland, KS.  A warm front extends out across northern Kansas into northern Missouri near Kansas City.  And, there is a dry line that will be interesting to plot as we move through the day Tuesday.  Where these features are located will be important for the initial thunderstorm development.

Here is what the SPC wrote up in their day 2 outlook:

“SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES…SOME STRONG…WILL BE POSSIBLE…IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TUESDAY. A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET
WILL OVERSPREAD TX INTO OK/KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DCVA.
THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHING S/SW FROM
ROUGHLY CNTRL KS…WRN OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 00Z/WED. THERE IS STILL
SOME VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW
POSITION…BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER
WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING W-E NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
KS BORDER AT 00Z. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AS FAR
NORTH AS S-CNTRL/SE NEB. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON…AND STRONG HEATING NEAR
THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE…UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO N TX. DEPENDING ON YOUR FAVORED
MODEL DEPICTION…A BI-MODAL COVERAGE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO KS AND
S-CNTRL NEB. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL EJECT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE MIN
SOMEWHERE…BUT WHERE THIS IS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS…AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE…WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES…VERY LARGE
/PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AFOREMENTIONED
COVERAGE CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME.

DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT…STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS OR BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO. WHILE A TORNADO
THREAT WILL LINGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT…A TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY
A LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX…STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THAN FURTHER NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A NIGHTTIME
TORNADO RISK BEFORE STORMS POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY APPROACH
NORTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY…VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.”

That is one rather strongly worded discussion. Let’s see how the models come in this morning.  The first thunderstorm development from this storm may occur early in the day, and this is something to watch. On outbreak days, there are often morning strong to severe thunderstorms that showcase where the best parameters may line up later in the afternoon. Some of the models ignite thunderstorms around 5 AM over eastern Kansas, so let’s see if this materializes and shows up on the new model runs.

Weather Time-line for Kansas City

  • 5 AM – Noon: A few thunderstorms, high based, may produce severe hail and possibly damaging winds in isolated spots in the morning. The tornado risk is low
  • Noon – 6 PM: Most likely dry as we wait for the thunderstorm development.
  • 6 PM – 2 AM: This is the most likely window for the worst of the severe weather. There is still some uncertainty over which area will be targeted.


The LRC

Are you ready to open your minds? There are around 1,00o of you that read this blog every day, not bad really. One thousand of you, and I appreciate every one of you.  What I am about to explain and show you will take a few minutes for you to seriously look at these first two maps.  We are currently in the Thanksgiving weekend part of the pattern, a part of the pattern that actually had a series of storm systems drop into the western states.  This series of storm systems produced a, what is called a long-term long wave trough, trough in the the western states that took a week to move east.

LRC beginning of Cycle 2:  November 30, 2015    150 days before April 28, 2016, LRC Cycle 5

LRC Cycle 2 November 30

LRC Cycle 5 April 28 NAM

Look at the high over southwestern Canada on the top map.  And, take a look at the 558 line that dips south over Seattle, and then goes up and over western Canada.  The same pattern is cycling through now, and these two maps just happen to be 150 days apart, November 30th on the top 500 mb verification chart from the beginning of LRC Cycle 2, and April 28th, from the beginning of LRC Cycle 5. It’s the same pattern! But, of course due to the seasonal affects, a bit different.

And, maybe you are hearing we are rapidly changing to La Niña from El Niño, well…..this is not the case. We are still in a strong El Niño, but it is gradually weakening. The same pattern continues regardless of the ENSO conditions.  This is an influence, but something bigger is going on, and the LRC is the centerpiece of this big difference.

Have a great day!!!!

Gary

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DobberMr. PeteScreaming Yellow Zonkerstl78Rockdoc Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Are we still dry from noon to 5pm tomorrow? Need to take care of some stuff outside.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, I’m sorry I’ve commented so much tonight. I work during the day and cannot participate then. After having spent time on Emergency Response Duty and a Striker Team right after Katrina came ashore I thought I’d share some preparedness ideas. Perhaps you can copy the earlier one that asks people if they are ready? You and I know that they may only have a few minutes to grab stuff. Anyways, I hope no one needs it. See you tomorrow on the blog. I’ll try and follow, but several meetings may preclude till after 5. Roc

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

Rock, I have a stupid meeting at stupid 2 p.m. on the stupid top floor of the stupid building. Even worse, I have two “days away” out doing dog and pony shows next week. Ugh. I hate when bosses plan days away from the office, out in other people’s cars, in early May. GRRR One thing that concerns me, every year, is the large number of people fresh off the plane from India at my workplace. They don’t speak any English at all. One time when it was going to be one of those nights, I tried to explain about… Read more »

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

For those up late tonight, charge all electronic devices and your standby battery packs. Is your container of personal papers and photos in a safe place? Ready to grab? Dog/cat carriers ready including pet food for 4+days? Bottles of water/food for you and family? Medicines and copies of perscriptions in a safe place ready to grab? You may only have 3-5 minutes warning. Are you ready?

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

Thanks Rockdoc for the prescription reminder. I forgot all about that. I will ask hubs to put both our prescriptions in the basement and hope for the best. Hubs doesn’t “believe” in tornadoes hitting cities. He’s a sweetie pie, so I forgive him for being R-O-N-G wrong about that.

My sister’s boyfriend was in Nashville when one hit Nashville. Many of his co-workers were gawking out the window, but he grabbed a newcomer by the collar and said “These guys know better–you’re coming with me!” and got him away from the stupid window.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Since we may be in for hail tomorrow I thought it would be great to share how hail forms. From Dr. Greg Forbes, the Science Behind Hail. Enjoy! Very educational.

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/how-hail-forms

Terry
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Terry

Another local station channel 5 they seem to be downplayed any severe weather for tomorrow. Almost like we’re not going to get anything. I don’t believe it’s going to be that easy

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Terry, I’m hoping our magic donut will reappear. In the winter, due to the donut we had no snow. Now, perhaps we will be protected from the severe storms! Hope you are doing well, we have not chatted in a while! Take care. Be safe, and have your safety plan in place.

Roc

stl78
Guest
stl78

I just replaced my windshield today. No baseball sized hail plz!!

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Hey stl78, you near a garage? Can always take a cab to/from. I’ve done that in case of large hail.

For those who do not have garages in OP, think of the old Macys at 91st and Metcalf and garages at Oak Park Mall, OP Convention Center, and other places.

In midtown, KU Med center has some as does Westport. Plenty downtown.

stl78
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stl78

Yes rock, I have a garage but my truck barely fits in it and my wife doesn’t feel comfortable trying to pull it in.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Oh boy, another moderation. How long will this one take?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Gary, looks like the area I had mentioned for the last 2 days also concern the NWS. The following links are for the NAM 4K model run at 18z. Here’s the CAPE around 7 pm. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sbcape&rh=2016042518&fh=30&r=us_c&dpdt= Scroll through time and by later in the evening the donut forms around KC. Also, here is Sig Tor for the same time frame. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2016042518&fh=30&r=us_c&dpdt= What I’m more worried about is the shear. If you look at the Bulk Shear at 10 pm it appears that there is some rotation in the northern central portion of Kansas. The main ULL is further out west.… Read more »

Jason
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Jason

Sorry for spelling errors. Should have spell checked

Jason
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Jason

Batten down the hatches everyone. This could get rough. Lucky me too. I am on call at work from 5pm Tuesday to 7am Wednesday. Usually get called in once or twice. Not worried about myself, but hate leaving wife, kids and digs at hone on nights like tomorrow.

Jack
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Jack
Joe F
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Joe F

Big dogs? I hope Evie keeps her eye to the sky.

rickmckc
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rickmckc

Sad.

Joe K
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Joe K

Joe F

Everybody on her knows who and what you are but I seriously cannot believe you would go that low as to make fun of another human beings health issues that are very serious and ultimately, life ending. You really need to look deep into your soul as karma has a way of catching up to you. Hope nobody does an IP trace and posts all your real info

Jack
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Jack

Gary, I have heard people talk how the high risk would maybe be in southern Kansas into Oklahoma. The triple point would be around the Nebraska and Kansas border, so wouldn’t the high risk be in the central Kansas area? I looked at the Dew Points and they hit 70 around the Kansas and Oklahoma border.. is that why that high risk would be there? I just looked at the latest GFS Cape values valid at 3 oclock and it has values of 3000-4000 between us and Wichita.. I would think with these values and the placement of them the… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Penner had a map up earlier showing some heavy rain over KC metro tomorrow night.

Waldo Weather
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Waldo Weather

Any idea how much rain we are expecting? I know nothing is for sure yet. IT’S KC! But are we thinking half inch? or like 3 inches in some spots?

Thanks

jeffinks
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jeffinks

Hello all I was just wondering what all this means for me down here in Wichita,Ks? Am I in the middle of the bad part of the zone? Or do you think it will miss us down here. Thanks and love reading the this and everyones responses.

Jack
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Jack

You are right in the middle of the moderate risk.

jeffinks
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jeffinks

great thanks. Lets hope we do not get tornado’s or large hail. Do not need another claim for a new roof and siding and i have anew car lol. Thanks for the response back also.

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

I read the book “What Stands in a Storm.” (“Do not read during tornado season,” said a commenter about this book.) It was about April 27, 2011, in the South. As Gary said, there was a round of storms with tornadoes that morning, before the big round of even worse ones that afternoon. At least one poor town got hit twice–Cordova, Alabama. I couldn’t understand why they had a round that morning and then a worse round that afternoon, but Gary said here that that does happen. Double Yikes!

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Some really juicy air has moved in, dew points already in the low to mid 60’s. Certainly feels different than what we have experienced so far this spring.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Tomorrow could be a rather exciting day for the Midwest, if you live west of Lawrence and east of sedalia mo be on the lookout for huge thunderstorms and watch and warning box all over the place. For all of us in the the kc metro area just expect a cloudy day with some clearing late in the day?

Does this about sum it up? 🙂

Joe F
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Joe F

MMike disappears until it rains…how fitting.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Joe F disappears until MMike comments……how fitting.

brooke
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brooke

Nobody really posts around unless it rains. I do look forward to his posts and so far he seems to have been right.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

You look forward to that guy’s posts? Geez, that really something to be proud of….backing the biggest jerk on this blog. He has nothing good to say at least 80% of the time. True, my reply falls in to that category (albeit it was not nasty like most of his are) and I should ignore, so I am the immature one for sure for responding.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Joe F,

I have other things going on in life…you clearly don’t. When there is no weather to talk about no need to hang around a blog all day and weekend like you do. Geez..find something to do.

Still enjoying this lush drought you said we would be in by now.

Joe K
Guest
Joe K

MMike,

Just ignore him. You should know who he is and I keep wondering why Gary doesn’t refund his money and simply get rid of him. The guy is way too old to change and obviously has no life.

lsmike
Guest
lsmike

Will it be a “PDS” day ?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I just wonder how bad the storms will be.

Craig
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Craig

My goodness gracious. Every storm chaser on the planet will be on I-70 and I-35 tomorrow. Lot’s of extra revenue for the Turnpike Authority.

weatherdancer
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weatherdancer

Okay Gary, I messaged you late last week about my daughter’s field trip to Jeff City. It is tomorrow and I’m getting rather nervous. Looks like the bulk of our day will be okay. We leave Jeff City around 6:30 and get back to Lees Summit around 9pm. Any shot for KC it’ll hold off til 10pm or do you think we’ll be targeted before then?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I’d say if it were going to be bad, it’d be around that time period.

Terry
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Terry

Gary do you still think of any place in the moderate risk of severe weather in KC?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Thanks Gary.

Emily B
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Emily B

Thanks for letting us ride this LRC journey with you, Gary! As a weather enthusiast, it will be “fun” watching the radar tomorrow. As much as I love experiencing storms, I never want them to bring harm to anyone. Here’s to hoping that people stay safe and as much ‘out of harms way’ as they can be!

MMike
Guest
MMike

.31 to .63 across the city last night..beautiful non severe thunderstorms last night.

Looks to be a different story later tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The entire landscape of KC is plenty lush..

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Need the details. What time are we talking tomorrow for potential bad wx here?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Looks like the bulk of it will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.