Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC. I will show you where we are in a minute, but let’s begin with the day 2 severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center:
The SPC has already placed a large moderate risk area from Nebraska south across central Kansas into Oklahoma. Conditions are coming together that may result in a major severe weather outbreak tomorrow. Here is a picture of some large hail the fell over Kansas yesterday. Carl Hobi, one of the 41 Action News storm chasers, experienced this. I doubt his car is in good shape:
The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is forecast to be very high along and ahead of the dry line, and near the warm front and triple point. This is a lot of energy that would be released if thunderstorms form, when thunderstorms form.
This is a rather complex set-up for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Just like the LRC, every pattern is unique each year, and every severe weather set-up is unique. This one features a low pressure area forecast to be near the Colorado/Kansas border near Goodland, KS. A warm front extends out across northern Kansas into northern Missouri near Kansas City. And, there is a dry line that will be interesting to plot as we move through the day Tuesday. Where these features are located will be important for the initial thunderstorm development.
Here is what the SPC wrote up in their day 2 outlook:
“SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES…SOME STRONG…WILL BE POSSIBLE…IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…
…FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TUESDAY. A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET
WILL OVERSPREAD TX INTO OK/KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DCVA.
THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHING S/SW FROM
ROUGHLY CNTRL KS…WRN OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 00Z/WED. THERE IS STILL
SOME VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW
POSITION…BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER
WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING W-E NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
KS BORDER AT 00Z. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AS FAR
NORTH AS S-CNTRL/SE NEB. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON…AND STRONG HEATING NEAR
THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE…UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO N TX. DEPENDING ON YOUR FAVORED
MODEL DEPICTION…A BI-MODAL COVERAGE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO KS AND
S-CNTRL NEB. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL EJECT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE MIN
SOMEWHERE…BUT WHERE THIS IS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS…AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE…WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES…VERY LARGE
/PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AFOREMENTIONED
COVERAGE CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT…STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS OR BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO. WHILE A TORNADO
THREAT WILL LINGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT…A TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY
A LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX…STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THAN FURTHER NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A NIGHTTIME
TORNADO RISK BEFORE STORMS POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY APPROACH
NORTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY…VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
That is one rather strongly worded discussion. Let’s see how the models come in this morning. The first thunderstorm development from this storm may occur early in the day, and this is something to watch. On outbreak days, there are often morning strong to severe thunderstorms that showcase where the best parameters may line up later in the afternoon. Some of the models ignite thunderstorms around 5 AM over eastern Kansas, so let’s see if this materializes and shows up on the new model runs.
Weather Time-line for Kansas City
- 5 AM – Noon: A few thunderstorms, high based, may produce severe hail and possibly damaging winds in isolated spots in the morning. The tornado risk is low
- Noon – 6 PM: Most likely dry as we wait for the thunderstorm development.
- 6 PM – 2 AM: This is the most likely window for the worst of the severe weather. There is still some uncertainty over which area will be targeted.
Are you ready to open your minds? There are around 1,00o of you that read this blog every day, not bad really. One thousand of you, and I appreciate every one of you. What I am about to explain and show you will take a few minutes for you to seriously look at these first two maps. We are currently in the Thanksgiving weekend part of the pattern, a part of the pattern that actually had a series of storm systems drop into the western states. This series of storm systems produced a, what is called a long-term long wave trough, trough in the the western states that took a week to move east.
LRC beginning of Cycle 2: November 30, 2015 150 days before April 28, 2016, LRC Cycle 5
Look at the high over southwestern Canada on the top map. And, take a look at the 558 line that dips south over Seattle, and then goes up and over western Canada. The same pattern is cycling through now, and these two maps just happen to be 150 days apart, November 30th on the top 500 mb verification chart from the beginning of LRC Cycle 2, and April 28th, from the beginning of LRC Cycle 5. It’s the same pattern! But, of course due to the seasonal affects, a bit different.
And, maybe you are hearing we are rapidly changing to La Niña from El Niño, well…..this is not the case. We are still in a strong El Niño, but it is gradually weakening. The same pattern continues regardless of the ENSO conditions. This is an influence, but something bigger is going on, and the LRC is the centerpiece of this big difference.
Have a great day!!!!