Two Outbreaks Possible: Very Active Week ahead!

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Good Saturday evening or Sunday morning bloggers,

There are two potential severe weather outbreaks in the forecast for the United States. Sunday is my 54th birthday, and there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.  We will look into this set-up soon, but more importantly is what is in the cards for Tuesday-Wednesday and around Friday night-Saturday.  I created this graphic below for Tuesday. We are in the “Thanksgiving weekend” part of the cycling weather pattern called the LRC.  It was a wet seven days 150 days ago, and it is likely going to produce in LRC Cycle 5:

Outbreak First Look

It has been a very quiet beginning to severe weather season. And, there is no guarantee that these two potential outbreaks will materialize. I certainly hope they do not as the results will not be good.  It would be very bad, so I will always root against it all coming together. The mindset of storm chasers is very different than mine, and I completely understand. Remember, there is nothing any of us can do about it, so cheer for the exciting weather set-up all you want. What will happen will depend on how each of these potential set-ups comes together. Forecasting severe weather is one of the most difficult tasks that meteorologist and forecaster has.  Every storm, every set-up is unique. Forecasting rain is one thing. It is usually a more broad forecast parameter where you can get away with saying 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible. And, if only 3/4″ falls, then the perception is that you got it right. When it comes to snow, that same 1 to 3 inches results in 1 to 3 feet of snow, and if only 7 inches falls the perception is that you were wrong on the forecast.  For severe thunderstorms, it gets even more specific, and down to the micro-scale. Where will the tornado form? Where will the large hail fall?

Today’s set-up:

day1otlk_1200

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The severe weather potential for Sunday afternoon and evening will be associated with this set-up above. The SPC has placed an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in a small area from north central Kansas into south central Nebraska. The severe convection is most likely near the dry line. Now, look where this dry line is forecast to be at 7 PM. That is way back there.  What we need to do from here is analyze the surface hour by hour and see what really happens with this set-up.

Tuesday’s set-up:

The conditions may come together Tuesday for a major severe weather outbreak. There are still a few uncertainties at the moment, but this is looking impressive to me. Take a look at the surface forecast map valid at 7 PM Tuesday:

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day3otlk_0730

From the SPC: FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL OUTBREAK WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…

We will look more in-depth into Tuesday’s potential outbreak Monday.  Have a great Sunday everyone, and thank you for the birthday wishes. I’m getting older!

Gary

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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Anyone awake? Weather is happening. Heavy rain in PVKS

MR Pete

Anonymous
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Anonymous

would love to meet Joe f. just once ! In person. I could so answer all your weather problems. You would never feel the need blog here again. Maybe we could get together, give me a shout

Waldo Weather
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Waldo Weather

Any update? Will KC get a little rain tonight?

Gary, Happy Birthday. Hope you had a kick ass day!!

Austin Braddock
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Austin Braddock

The storms have turned right towards kck. Beware folks good be rough about 12.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Happy Birthday Gary!

Terry
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Terry

Gary for Tuesday/Tuesday night do you think there’s a good chance that the KC area would be put in a moderate risk for severe weather?

Joe F
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Joe F

Will we get snow on the backside of the storm Terry?

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Happy Birthday Gary! ? Hope you have a marvelous day ? I’ve been monitoring the potential setup for today and on Tuesday. This first link is for the mixed layer CAPE today at 7pm. It is mostly through central Kansas. If you toggle back to 4pm it is close to the dry line you showed. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=mlcape&rh=2016042412&fh=12&r=us_c&dpdt= The mixed layer CAPE for Tuesday is showing a somewhat narrow line south to north through Kansas and on up into Nebraska. I don’t like what I’m seeing up in Nebraska, in particular with the bullseye showing just across the border. The image in… Read more »

OG POOF MAN
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OG POOF MAN

POOF POOF POOF

Nenkc
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Nenkc

Happy birthday Gary

Myles
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Myles

Happy Birthday Gary!

Kelly
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Kelly

Happy Birthday, Gary !

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Happy Birthday, Gary.

Brooke Lloyd
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Brooke Lloyd

Happy Birthday Gary!

Jason
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Jason

Have a great Birthday Gary!

Kerrie L
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Kerrie L

Happy Birthday Gary! Thank you for your ongoing education and theories!

Screaming Yellow Zonker
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Screaming Yellow Zonker

Happy Birthday Gary!!! And many more!!!

Terry
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Terry

Happy birthday Gary

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Happy birthday Gary!!!

Joe F
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Joe F

Myself and my step son Robert Racy would like to wish you a Happy Birthday!

Chris
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Chris

Happy Birthday Gary!
One thing great about your Profession is that you an keep doing it and getting better at it till you are a totttling old guy!
Age is a matter of how you feel !

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Happy Birthday Gary! ??

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Happy Birthday Gary! Hope it’s a good one. Thnaks for all you do on this blog!
Michael

Steve
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Steve

Happy birthday! You sure don’t look like you’re 54 and give me a lot to aspire to as I get older.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

What time Tuesday are we talking here? After 5pm?

Myles
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Myles

Hopefully just some good ole thunderstorms with some nice rainfall. The severe stuff can stay away.

Dobber
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Dobber

Totally agree!

Baseball mike
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Happy birthday Gary-you sound a little worried about next week-I agree I never root for severe weather-this week will be the twenty-five years ago for the Andover tornado-I was just west at Rock road and 29th street when the tornado struck-I have never seen such a black sky as I saw that day-The day before I had taken someone from church to a neighborhood in southeast Wichita that was hit hard on the 26th and wiped clean-Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Blake
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Blake

Happy Birthday to you from Anaheim, where the sun is shining and the dew point is low. The high dew point when we return will be a slap in the face. Some snow is still on the two peaks north and west of Palm Springs. I bet you miss the weather here. If you can fight the traffic, you can experience almost everything here.