Good Saturday evening or Sunday morning bloggers,
There are two potential severe weather outbreaks in the forecast for the United States. Sunday is my 54th birthday, and there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. We will look into this set-up soon, but more importantly is what is in the cards for Tuesday-Wednesday and around Friday night-Saturday. I created this graphic below for Tuesday. We are in the “Thanksgiving weekend” part of the cycling weather pattern called the LRC. It was a wet seven days 150 days ago, and it is likely going to produce in LRC Cycle 5:
It has been a very quiet beginning to severe weather season. And, there is no guarantee that these two potential outbreaks will materialize. I certainly hope they do not as the results will not be good. It would be very bad, so I will always root against it all coming together. The mindset of storm chasers is very different than mine, and I completely understand. Remember, there is nothing any of us can do about it, so cheer for the exciting weather set-up all you want. What will happen will depend on how each of these potential set-ups comes together. Forecasting severe weather is one of the most difficult tasks that meteorologist and forecaster has. Every storm, every set-up is unique. Forecasting rain is one thing. It is usually a more broad forecast parameter where you can get away with saying 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible. And, if only 3/4″ falls, then the perception is that you got it right. When it comes to snow, that same 1 to 3 inches results in 1 to 3 feet of snow, and if only 7 inches falls the perception is that you were wrong on the forecast. For severe thunderstorms, it gets even more specific, and down to the micro-scale. Where will the tornado form? Where will the large hail fall?
The severe weather potential for Sunday afternoon and evening will be associated with this set-up above. The SPC has placed an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in a small area from north central Kansas into south central Nebraska. The severe convection is most likely near the dry line. Now, look where this dry line is forecast to be at 7 PM. That is way back there. What we need to do from here is analyze the surface hour by hour and see what really happens with this set-up.
The conditions may come together Tuesday for a major severe weather outbreak. There are still a few uncertainties at the moment, but this is looking impressive to me. Take a look at the surface forecast map valid at 7 PM Tuesday:
From the SPC: FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL OUTBREAK WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…
We will look more in-depth into Tuesday’s potential outbreak Monday. Have a great Sunday everyone, and thank you for the birthday wishes. I’m getting older!