Outbreak Set-Up For Early Next Week?

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Good Saturday morning bloggers,

There is a potent storm about to form and eject out into the plains states by Tuesday night. Conditions may very well come together for a potential severe weather outbreak late Tuesday afternoon, evening, and night, but there are still a lot of questions.  We are now moving into the Thanksgiving weekend part of the weather pattern and several storm systems are about to affect the plains as predicted 150 days ago to return this week.

This map shows the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  This model did not even generate it’s first thunderstorm however by this time. But, it appears ready to explode.


There is a lot of energy capable of being released on Tuesday with this developing storm. But, you have to trigger thunderstorms first. Take a look at the moisture levels available at the surface:


The Gulf of Mexico will be fully tapped for this weather set-up. Those are 70+ dew points surging up to the warm front. Where are the fronts? Take a look:


Why has this model waited this long to generate it’s first thunderstorm? The energy aloft, the main storm, is just approaching at this time. There should be an explosion of super cell thunderstorms by around 7 or 8 PM. This would provide daylight for another 30 minute to an hour for storm chasers to experience this explosion of thunderstorms. Now, this timing may change, and Wednesday is likely day 2 of this event.

We will monitor this closely and update you tomorrow.  Have a great weekend.


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Joe F
Joe F

I hope Alice keeps her eye to the sky on Tuesday.


Gary with this severe setup on Tuesday afternoon Tuesday night and Wednesday is there a good possibility of tornadoes?