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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The incredible cycling pattern is set for the season.  We are moving into the second cycle of this year’s  features of this year’s pattern.  When will they return? What will they mean as we move through this winter season when they do return? Will California get blasted by massive winter storm systems as is being advertised by what is supposed to happen during a strong El Niño winter?  We will be answering these questions in the next few days and weeks.

LRC INDEX December 7

Here is the first cycle of this year’s pattern, and likely the first ten days of the second cycle. The pattern that is developing this week will feature a pretty big warm-up across a large part of the nation, and then within the next week a big change will happen.

The pattern forming now is quite similar to close to 50 days ago.  There is a signature “look” to the pattern that we have been waiting on, and it appears to be showing up in next weeks storm system.  How will it actually set up, and what areas will be targeted by the warm side of this storm, and which areas will be targeted by the cold side of this storm is yet to be determined.  We do know that the AO and NAO indexes have continued to be positive and this favors a more unblocked and farther north track.  This is not set in stone yet, so let’s see how it evolves in the coming days.

You can see this storm on the computer models now. On this model from the midnight run of last night’s GFS model an upper low is forecast to develop over Utah by one week from tonight. The models have varying strengths of this system, but most of them now track  it north of Kansas City. For it to snow in KC we will need the main disturbance to track farther south than the trend has been showing, and this is a possibility. We do have, however, a split of the southwestern Canada coast forecast to develop, and the northern stream continues to be rather flat:

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Now, before we even get to this storm, take a look at the warm pattern we are in this week:

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We have what is called a mostly zonal jet stream, from west to east, but by the end of the week a big dip in the flow is forecast to develop:

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Before we get to any significant changes in the winter direction we have a big warming trend first. Take a look at this level, the 850 mb forecast (5,000 feet up) showing the lack of any cold air:

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This is a warm pattern out ahead of next week’s change and temperatures will likely get close to record highs in many areas. The AO is forecast to dip into negative territory next week, and I have seen some model runs start to block up the pattern. It is something we have to monitor closely as it could have an impact on next week’s storm.

Have a great day, and thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog.  Have you entered our contest yet. You have one more week to enter as we are forecasting for the Christmas week. Click here to enter:  Long Range Weather Forecast Contest

Gary

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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Good evening to you sir!!!

Will be interesting to see if the AO does indeed go as negative next week as some of the ensembles are showing. I personally think that there is proof in the LRC for it go that negative as it went close to minus 2 in mid-October. If it does indeed go that negative next week then it could be interesting here for sure.

Have a great night!!

Bill in Lawrence

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

It’s possible all this snow comes at once – one whopper in February.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

We just just be ready for the roller coaster ride this winter

MMike
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MMike

KSHB has 60 for a high next Monday, everyone else has mid 40’s….quite the spread. Terry, if you think no one knows what’s going to happen, how can you say 22-27 inches??? In all honesty, with very wet storm potentials this winter and the concern for border line cold enough air, I would say the snowfall potential this year has a high bust possibility. If we get just enough cold with the larger storms and are lined up well, you can get some big wet snow storms with higher end totals. The same can happen the other direction and we… Read more »

terry mercer
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terry mercer

60 on Monday does not mean a thing two or three days later after that.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

I’m thinking 22 – 27 inches of snow this year. I don’t know why everybody keeps thinking we’re not going to get that much we don’t know that yet

Dale
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Dale

Because the pattern is warm Terry. Where is the arctic air? It bottled up north with no signs of coming this way. Gary could tell you 100″ of snow and you’d believe him. Take off you snowglasses and see the pattern. Lol you need to move to Canada.

terry
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terry

Thxs any way but you must have not of watch his winter forecast December 3rd probley not and you dont really know whats going to happen either. Gary did Yeah that there will be enough cold air this winter for it to be snow fall. 23 inches of snow this winter. The pattern can be warm and we still get snow. The is showing signs of going AO negative on some of the models next week. We dont know that the arctic cold air is going to be bottled up there all winter long. When people hear that it’s going… Read more »

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Dale lets just what and see what happens and then we can say what we wont to say lol. I think the Snow Gods are going to wake up soon so get ready for a exciting ride. My predictions on snow is 22 to 27.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

Fatal flaw in you logic…you don’t need arctic air for snow

terry mercer
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terry mercer

That’s right .

Dale
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Dale

Fatal Flaw- assuming that’s the only factor in producing snow. Lol calm down lil buddy.

Dale
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Dale

Arctic air makes it easier to snow. Cold air holds less moisture…kinda thought you would know that.

AW
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AW

If cold air holds less moisture, then Arctic Air would hold less than that.

MMike
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MMike

The thick frost this morning might be as close as we get to snow cover this winter.

We’re going to challenge the all time record low snowfall of 3.9 inches.

There’s a better chance at a heat advisory this winter then a snow advisory.

I’ll check back in after I clean the pool, mow the grass, and water the ‘still alive” flowers…….IN DECEMBER!!!

stl78
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stl78

Lol @ mm. I don’t think we will challenge the 3.9 record. I’m thinking 17 in this yr. I’m workin in Minn this week where it was 43 today!

terry mercer
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terry mercer

MMike I don’t know why you keep saying we’re going to challenge of 3.9 inches of snow this year you don’t know that we don’t know that.

joe
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joe

There is no way you are the real mower mike

MMike
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MMike

Joe,

I am……why do you say that?

joe
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joe

Mike, Because you have always been a solid in this and the 41 blog, always positive and always conducting yourself with respect and as of late, you have made some comments that mean one of two things, you are not the real mower mike or you are having a real bad month. Just an observation On another note, I realize we are abnormally warm however, it only takes a minor shift and we can get a major ice or snow storm. I for one, believe we will get slammed at some point taking into consideration the roller coaster we are… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

Hey Joe,

What comments are you talking about? I’m just messing around with it being so warm. I want it to snow a bunch, it’s just a very warm pattern. I know it can change around here quickly.

I don’t think my comments are suggesting I’m having a bad month…LOL. Your not picking up on my sarcastic approach.

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

Joe I’m glad somebody else was thinking the same thing. I was thinking the same thing.

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

Let’s all be glad that it’s going to be an exciting winter better than it was last year.

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

Not trying to be disrespectful everyone has their own opinions.

Mike
Guest
Mike

Thank you for the detailed information Gary. Yesterday you posted a GFS link for 12-16. Can you post that same map everyday so we can all see how wishy washy the models can be from day to day?

Thanks,
Mike

craig
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craig

You can find it here: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015120712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=240

After disappearing yesterday, the storm is showing up again…though not as strong as yesterday.

CRW
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CRW

Is the GFS still showing snow for next week or are we back to rain?

Thomas
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Thomas

New one just starting to come out

MMike
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MMike

CRW,

Latest GFS barely has any moisture over the next 10 days. Warm and boring….

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Things will change that we all know that

CRW
Guest
CRW

Thanks for checking. I think we may hit maybe 10 inches of snow for the winter if we are lucky.

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

Gary also you was talking that AO is forcast next week dip into the negative next week and is forcast to by some of the models and blocking is with some of them and you say something of the models showing the pa

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

And you said some of the models start to show some blocking of the pattern. Is that the blocking we need to happen Gary? Sorry message sent too early before I was

Gary H
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Gary H

I am experiencing an IE crash every time I try to use the 12-week forecast for my ZIP code. Anyone else experiencing that?

MMike
Guest
MMike

Gary H,

YES, I have had the same problem. I mentioned it to Gary L and he said get lost. I’m watching the Chiefs game right now.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary you was talking about we would go through the next 30 to 35 day’s about the storm y part of the pattern. I was wondering can you or do you no when the storm Systems might hit or what date and day’s? Thanks.

Gary H
Guest
Gary H

I could be wrong, but I think Gary’s waiting to verify the cycle length before he goes into any detail on this next 30-day stretch.

Dobber
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Dobber

Great blog today Gary!

Baseball Mike
Guest

Good morning Gary–Yes, it is interesting to see all other weather sources I follow changing their forecasts everyday—they seem to be having a difficult time with the long range forecasts which is natural. Are you still confident that it could turn stormy winter wise in the next two weeks? It is the temperatures that keep changing on the forecasts that seem to mess up the forecasts. Thanks for the information. Michael/Berryton/Topeka

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

For the snowflake contest to end 1″ of snow has to accumulate – correct?

I can see us having a situation with as much warm air as we’ve had and us being near 70 this week were even if 4″ of snow falls, we may not have 1″ accumulate unless it comes down real hard. Especially when we fail to have any Arctic air setting up shop.