5-Day Storm Intensifies On Day 5

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Today is day 5 of this 5-day storm here in Kansas City. It has been of various lengths in other parts of the nation. I just checked my rain gauge and dumped out another 0.65″ adding to the 3.72 inch total which puts south Overland Park, KS up to 4.37″ for this incredibly wet system. Here are some other five-day totals as of 7 AM:

  • Overland Park, KS:  4.37″
  • KCI Airport (the official recording station for Kansas City):  2.41″
  • Lee’s Summit, MO:  3.52″

I will update these totals later today….as this storm will be done producing rain in this area by around 3 PM this afternoon.

5

This storm is moving out into the plains this morning and Winter Storm Warnings are in place in that pink shaded area with Winter Weather Advisories around it. The storm system in the upper levels of the troposphere is now moving out into the plains, intensifying, and closing off even more today with a the center of the upper level storm forecast to be near Omaha, NE by 6 PM this evening as you can see below:

1

Take a look at the flow near the west coast. A rather major split flow occurs right on the west coast with  the northern stream riding up into and through a ridge over western Canada and then extending east-southeast across Hudson Bay. The southern stream curves around the plains closed off upper level low into a ridge near the east coast.

El Niño’s important 3.4 zone off the South American coast over the tropical Pacific Ocean waters came in at +3.0°C today, which is down just 0.1°C.  A strong El Niño is characterized by +1.5°C, so this is extremely warm.  The AO and NAO indexes are still way high into the positives right now.  There is a trend towards neutral on some of the models. We will discuss these things and more in Tuesday’s blog. The in-depth winter forecast comes out later this week. We have a lot of work to do.

Have a great start to the week, and thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Leave a Reply

avatar
  Subscribe  
Notify of
Kurt
Guest
Kurt

This is definitely a weather pattern never seen before. 3 to 5 inches of rain area wide, in late November. No signs of artic air.

I’m interested in the in depth winter forecast. Is El Niño so strong it’s keeping the northern branch bottled up north?

Will the rest of the winter struggle with getting cold air here to produce snow?

I am looking forward to some sunny days after a week of cloudy skies.

I think there is a 100 percent chance of big mosquitos in the spring 🙂

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Next ten days look warm

stl78
Guest
stl78

Maybe u r right Terry but as of now I don’t see it

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Let’s be honest…none us really have a clue what will happen

stl78
Guest
stl78

Your right heat. All I can do is look at the long range models and as of now it looks warm.

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

I think December will have a turn around and get colder as we move into the mid to second half of December.

Kyle
Guest
Kyle

There is also a chance we never get a cold shot of air at the right time and you’ll need to go to the mountains or up north for snow Terry

stl78
Guest
stl78

I forsee a warm dec.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If the LRC is in fact 38 days Sunday morning is going to be in the lower 20s or upper teens.

David Swartz
Guest
David Swartz

Gary, I was wondering where you got the SST anomalies for the El Nino regions on the November 24 entry. I see from the climate prediction center some of them, but not the most current. Can you please advise me where you get the latest SST anomalies. Thank you.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

LRC cycle is 38 days. Check out the 500 MB map from 10/23 versus Today. Identical. The hurricane in the EPAC – Patricia…. and we had a big cut-off low the same week while Patricia was forming as well?

Expect this to return the week of New Years 2nd through 7th of January and with it being slightly colder seasonally, expect us to get clobbered with a huge ice event. I don’t know if it will change to snow or not. I’m thinking not.

nick
Guest
nick

Hey Gary,

Can you post a time lapse radar for the last 5 days in the KC area? I’m not sure where or if you can find those on the internet

Baseball Mike
Guest

Good morning Gary—I am estimating that we had around 3.00 inches or so–what a mess–when the ice melted—-That total gives me close to 53 inches in the Berryton area for the year—with the cycle and split flows–the forecast is difficult to pin down without the cold air—but we would have all these big storms coming back in some form—I just hope we don’t get a major ice storm—hate those—is it the cutoff low that caused the weather to hang back to our west–that is why we did not get the winter storm warnings? This is another tough LRC–I remember in… Read more »

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

So here goes November up in Maryville: I recorded 11 different rain events, with a total of 4:39″ for the month. The biggest on November 27th, 1.40″ and .01 on the 11th. I think if this 5 day storms returns in early January with the moisture we have received look out! Deep Deep snow! Have a great Monday everybody.
Michael