Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The morning begins with a large area of rain, freezing rain, and snow. The big OU-OSU football game is going to be in Stillwater, OK today, and it looks as if they will be dealing with freezing rain and rain during the day, but they may get a break tonight:
As El Niño continued to strengthen this week, an “El Niño” type storm is currently in progress. This is just a fascinating weather pattern and we will have our in-depth winter forecast coming out on December 3rd. We will go into detail on what this pattern will mean for each region.
Kansas City had record rainfall with the wettest Thanksgiving Day in KC history. There was one Thanksgiving Day that had 0.88″ of rain, and another one in 1923 that had 9 inches of snow with over an inch liquid equivalent. This 2 to 3 inch rain event was really almost 300% of the previous record for a Thanksgiving Day. Wow! Here are some of the rainfall totals that I showed on the air last night:
This storm is showcasing the potential for this winter as this part of the pattern will return two more times during the winter months. Once we firm up the cycle length of this year’s pattern we will be able to get rather specific on when this part of the pattern will cycle back through. Here is a look at this storm from the water vapor satellite picture this morning:
The latest major hurricane ever has literally been completely wiped out by the developing winter weather pattern. This is yet another example of how small a feature such as a major hurricane is when you talk about the bigger picture. Super Typhoons and major hurricanes are just small disturbances when you take a look at the synoptic scale across the westerly belt as we are showing above. The main moisture source for the current weather set-up is from the Gulf of Mexico with another big influence from the Pacific Ocean.
The icing event around Kansas City has mostly been on trees, bushes, and other elevated surfaces. The roads have been mostly wet, thank goodness. Here is a picture of Sunny with a little ice on the trees. Here is an example of the wet pavement with some ice hanging on the trees. Sunny and Breezy posed, well sort of, for this picture.
And, here is a picture tweeted out this morning:
Let’s take a look at the set-up for the next few days:
To begin, take a look at the forecast precipitation types valid at 6 PM tonight:
As you can see, the heavy precipitation event in Oklahoma really is down to a few showers this evening, so the conditions should improve for the big bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State with a lot on the line in the National Championship picture.
Here is the upper level flow, the 500 mb level which is around 18,000 feet up, valid at noon central time Sunday. The main jet stream is continuing to stay up way to the north and separated from the southern stream of the jet stream. There are strong indication of the strong El Niño influence in this southern branch of the jet stream. This pattern has evolved and we are already seeing extreme weather in the form of excessive rainfall and some ice and snow. The jet stream that is being held way up to the north for now is also a strong indication of the AO and NAO positive indexes.
There is a southern wave of energy reorganizing around the Rocky Mountains upper level low on Sunday. This wave of energy will move out into the plains by Monday. This southern wave will likely become quite strong, and the upper low will move out into the plains and get deeper, go through a transition, and close off again.
If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) weren’t so positive this storm would have a chance of tracking farther south, but like many other systems already this season, this storm will track across in a similar path into Nebraska and Iowa. In the next two winter LRC cycles, this storm may track farther south, and we will have to continue monitoring these other indexes.
Here is the 500 mb forecast valid at noon Monday. Notice the double upper low structure with one upper low over Wyoming, and a second that just formed over Nebraska with a powerful shortwave intensifying over Kansas. The snow will track along and north of that vort max, the X you see near Dodge City. The two upper lows are in a closed circle, really two closed circles at this level, and this will imply a very slow moving storm that is going through a transition Sunday into Monday.
Take a look at how close Kansas City may be to having it’s first snowflake of the season:
It may very well briefly snow on Monday afternoon or evening. For there to be any accumulation, this storm would have to track just a bit farther south. Right now, it appears another inch of rain could fall near KC which would get them close to 5 inches for the month.
Guess what’s next? December! Have a great day! Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. We will learn a lot more in the next few days about this overall pattern. I will be writing up that in-depth winter forecast for later next week.