Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The late Dr. George Fishbeck, Los Angeles weatherman in the 1970s, used this term, “Cut-off low, weatherman’s woe”, when I was growing up in Southern California. This storm is already causing headaches for meteorologists, and as usual if you live near Kansas city it’s a nightmare of a forecast. Here are the advisories that have been issued:
There are so many watches, warnings, and advisories, including a freezing rain advisory for areas just northwest of KC, but as usual KC is in the middle of, well, in the middle with all of the advisories all around us.
It’s not just the cut-off low that has our attention, how about one of the latest and strongest hurricanes ever seen at this time of the year.
Hurricane Sandra Forms:
Here is a discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
“Sandra has intensified during the past few hours. The eye has
become quite distinct and is surrounded by an area of very deep
convection. CIMSS ADTs have been oscillating around 6.5, which
is the same as the T-number provided by TAFB. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been increased to 125 kt, making Sandra a
category 4 hurricane.
Most likely, Sandra has already reached its peak intensity, and
although the ocean is still warm, the hurricane is expected to
soon encounter very strong southwesterly shear, which should result
in rapid weakening. This is reflected in both the GFS and the ECMWF
global models which separate the mid-level circulation for the
surface center in about 36 to 48 hours due to shear. Sandra is
expected to be a weakening storm by the time its center passes south
of the southern portion the Baja California peninsula in about 48
hours. The cyclone is forecast to be a dissipating remnant low over
mainland Mexico in about 3 days.”
Moisture from Sandra will get pulled and injected into the flow around the cut-off low.
Not only am I emcee of the Plaza Lighting, where 100,000 people are usually coming out for this tradition, the 86th annual, but I am also the official meteorologist. Here is what I just sent to the Plaza Lighting team, and with this lightning map of the past hour:
Weather Forecast Time-Line:
Now-Noon: 62 to 64 degrees with a south breeze at 10-25 mph. A few light to moderate rain showers moving across.
Noon – 3 PM: Rain increasing just north and west of Kansas City and it will begin moving in. The wind will begin shifting to the northwest, but it doesn’t appear that the wind will increase until after the lighting. Temperatures begin falling from the 60s into the 50s, then into the 40s.
3 PM – 6 PM: We go into the heavy band of rain. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but like what is on radar now there may only be one or two within the band. The heavy rain will be the main factor with the wind out of the north or northwest at 5-15 mph. Temperatures drop into the 40s.
6 PM -7PM: A 100% chance of rain, heavy rain is likely. A thunderstorm is possible. North to northwest winds 5-15 mph, not very strong, with temperatures dropping through the 40s, possibly down to 40 degrees.
7 PM -8 PM: A 100% chance of rain, heavy at times. Temperatures drop to 39 degrees with the northwest wind beginning to increase by around 8 or later.
This is how it looks. We can discuss this in our conference calls. As long as there is no significant lightning, I suggest having the show as planned. If the winds stay light at first, this would keep the stage under cover. We will just have to see how this all plays out. It is just incredible that these six hours are the hours of the worst weather.
Okay, so Happy Thanksgiving. We will look at the next few disturbances rotating around the cut-off low in tomorrow’s blog. I have to get ready to get wet.