Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The storm system moving out into the plains has already produced out west. California has been receiving a little break here and a little break there as the drought is likely going to continue to gradually weaken it’s grip in the coming weeks and months. The most recent storm, the fourth one to hit the Sierra Nevada mountains already this season, just dumped snow on the California ski resorts. Take a look at this picture sent in from Jeff Boris in the Tahoe Keys area of Lake Tahoe on the south shore:
This is at just above 6,200 feet up. Look at the docks and how low the water is. Boats have been barely able to get out of the Tahoe Keys and onto the lake this summer, and apparently the lake was even lower as of this week. This is likely going to change by next spring and summer if the snow pack continues to grow. The LRC is pointing in that direction, but it’s still very early in the season. The rainy season kicks into high gear in January and February out west. And, this part of the pattern will be cycling back through this winter. I still have some concerns that California is not in the direct path of the wrath of this year’s EL Niño. We are still doing some more analysis of this pattern and we will discuss the rainfall potential out west in our in-depth winter discussion next week. Los Angeles has still been fairly dry this season, and it has my attention. Only 0.01″ of rain has fallen in Los Angeles this month, and the month is almost over.
What is this storm going to do as it moves east? Well, it really is going to get stuck over the west, and while it does Kansas City is about to have it’s wettest Thanksgiving Day ever recorded. Kansas City has never had an inch of rain on a Thanksgiving Day and our forecast is for 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall with a few spots possibly getting more than that. Kansas City averages 2.15″ for the entire month, and this is the second wet storm in the past couple of weeks.
Here is the latest LRC Index. You can click on this graphic for a much larger view. The cycle length continues to evolve and we will be able to firm up what that cycle length is within two to three weeks, as we do every year in December. The new LRC evolved from August into October, and this pattern truly began around that first week of October. We must wait for a match and this will happen as we move into LRC Cycle 2:
Big Changes In The Pattern
The LRC is now set for the season. We are still identifying a few more features, and our in-depth winter forecast will come out next week. Let’s look at this current storm system and how it is evolving. The models are having a particularly difficult stretch of trying to model this developing pattern.
This morning’s new data:
Look at this morning’s surface map:
This is what we call a moisture tongue! We will be discussing this in the spring quite often, as it is looking like it will be quite an active severe weather season in the plains in 2016. Moisture was surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Now, look where the front is forecast to be on the latest NAM model valid at 3 PM Thanksgiving Day:
And, look at the temperature forecast:
Who thinks this will be an easy forecast for the Plaza Lighting? This model has it in the 60s just three hours before the huge outdoor event, that will be broadcast live on 41 Action News, and it will be streamed around the world on KSHB.com. I am the emcee and meteorologist for the event. Look at this? Wow! And, that frontal zone is right over KC at 6 PM on this model. Three hours faster and it will be in the 30s for the Plaza Lighting, one hour slower and we have the warmest Thanksgiving Evening on record. Isn’t weather fun?
Happy Thanksgiving Eve! Have a safe holiday weekend. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.