Thanksgiving Storm, A Hurricane, & A Monster El Niño

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Next week I will be writing up the extensive and in-depth winter forecast as we identify more of the features that are now cycling through this brand new and unique weather pattern. Today, we are going to talk about the still growing monster El Niño, A Thanksgiving Weekend Storm System, and a developing hurricane.  Yes, a late November hurricane is likely going to form in the next few days over the eastern Pacific Ocean and it may have impacts in the United States as the moisture gets drawn into this developing storm system.

Let’s begin with the latest El Niño status:

Screen Shot 2015-11-23 at 11.28.24 PM

The latest temperature anomalies have come in, and this powerful, and possibly strongest El Niño ever recorded, continues to strengthen. The latest anomaly just reached it’s warmest temperature at 3.1°C above average. We are now in a full fledged powerful El Niño event. The Tropical Pacific Ocean waters are quite warm off the South American coast and there will be major impacts this winter.

Possible Hurricane Development:

The eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is supposed to end on November 3oth. This storm may become the 18th named storm this season, and if it is named, it will be called Sandra.

Hurricane Late November

A tropical system is now developing well off the Mexico coast. You can see the developing system on this enhanced satellite picture from around 7 AM this morning.

SAT_NHEMI_IR4ENH

A Thanksgiving Weekend Storm System:

A strong storm is now developing near the northern California coast. There is a heavy precipitation event in progress from northern California north into Washington and Oregon with snow at the higher elevations.  This is another system coming in from the northwest, so it is not impacting Southern California with the highly anticipated rains from any El Niño influence so far. These rains may come later in the winter, but for now these systems are just missing them to the north.

1This first map on the left can be clicked on for a larger view. It shows the flow aloft today. There is a wave of energy being kicked out of the western states and out over the plains, but it is a dry system. This would likely be a wet system in May or June when more low level moisture is available.  It will produce a band of clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two today.  The main and rather strong storm is intensifying over California today. The main jet stream is still over Canada, and this flow is indicative of an AO and NAO positive index.

3Look at what happens by the day after Thanksgiving.  The upper low gets stuck, and completely cut-off from the polar jet stream over Canada.  The flow becomes even more split off the west coast, and this system will be producing some excessive rainfall.  The models will have a very difficult time in the next few model runs while this unusual process develops. What I mean, is while this high over low tries to form the flow aloft will likely have many different solutions, and how it will impact the weather in each location is going to be challenging. Take a look at this precipitation forecast between now and Friday night:

Screen Shot 2015-11-24 at 7.48.45 AM

As you can see there is a forecast of over five inches of rain over parts of north  Texas, Oklahoma, and into northern Arkansas. This is the area we picked out in our preliminary winter forecast to be very wet this winter, and it is already starting. After Friday, the pattern becomes even more complex. Take a look:

 

4

By the end of the weekend, the upper low will begin to get forced out. For Kansas City to have any winter precipitation this upper low, that you see in Idaho, would have to be much farther south. Or, at least that lead strong disturbance would have to track across Texas and not southwestern Kansas. This is another symptom of the high AO and NAO indexes.

NAO November 24 AO November 24

What does all of this mean? We will sort it out in the next few days.  For Kansas City it likely means that all of the precipitation will be in the liquid form despite a strong cold front moving through and a storm coming out into the colder air.  In other patterns this would be a recipe for snow and ice, and there will likely be that transition zone, but farther north and west. We will discuss this as we get closer to the holiday weekend.

Thank you for sharing in this exciting weather experience.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good evening to you sir!! If I am reading it correctly (a huge if!!!) the 0Z NAM has a colder solution for Friday and beyond compared to the 12Z run. The freezing line makes it through Lawrence and even through KC on this run. Obviously this is just one run and it could be total bunk nor is it showing any kind of major event but I think it is interesting that it is showing the freezing line marching further east than in the past few runs. Will be interesting to see how this entire event plays out in… Read more »

terry mercer
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terry mercer

I just noticed Topeka Kansas is in a Winter storm watch!

L.B
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L.B

At least if we do have snow it shouldn’t stick around long. Question? Is it just me and my computer or does the KSHB web page just suck big time in general? videos load occasionally, articles sometime load what you actually are trying to read and advertisements? for cryin out loud! I know they need to make money but hackin people off aint the way to go about it

Dale
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Dale

It sucks. I don’t even bother anymore. I’d rather go elsewhere.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Really I think any month during the winter we can snow. But i think January /February are the snowiest. But according to Gary we can big storm between Christmas and New Years and the first week of the new year could even have even a bigger storm then.

Dale
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Dale

Calm down Terry. If you keep at this pace you will stroke out before we get any snow. We know you love snow and you are literally on pins and needles about every storm. It will snow this Winter, just chill out so you can be alive to see it LOL

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Yeah I know. But no one knows what’s going to happen on but Gary. And what he has told us so far.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Okay lol

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

According to the LRC February would be the month where KC could see the snow. Are my calculations off?

Kathy
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Kathy

Last winter, we had most of our storm systems come through before the cold air moved in. When it was cold, it was dry. I am sensing the same thing might happen this year, only with even more rain events. Like most of you, I do believe the rain events will far outnumber snow events; however, I was wondering what most of you think about ice? Ice is just rain which falls into a colder environment. I am a little concerned that as we go deeper into winter, a few of these rains may translate into ice. Any thoughts????

Austin Braddock
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Austin Braddock

Winter Weather Advisory Just issued for Central Kansas 0.1-0.2 inches ice accumulations are possible. The WWA goes from 6p.m. Thursday to 6am Saturday morning.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

There will be 2 cold spells during each LRC – equating with OCT 30 and with the hard freeze a few days ago. Given a cycle length of 38 days, the next cold blast is due in DEC 9th.

Dale
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Dale

I’m with most people here today. Less snow but more rain. Where is the cold air? The LRC is set and we have had barely any unseasonably cool air.
Sorry Terry, I’m hoping you get buried by snow this year.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Winter are alot colder therefore we should have available cold air. TM

MikeL
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MikeL

I agree on the lack of cold air and limited snow for this winter. The overall pattern so far looks mostly warm and occasionally wet.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

We do not know yet if there’s going to be a lack of cold in the winter time so we can not say that yet so I’m going to have to disagree with you on that. Can’t jump to conclusions before we know what’s going to go on yet from Gary.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Because winter could be a lot colder than it is right now we’re not in winter select gary said don’t jump to conclusions yet .

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m with Mike, there is no serious cold air sight, at least the next ten days

Kurt
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Kurt

I finally had a killing hard freeze over the weekend, had beautiful planted pots all summer and fall. Very happy to see these wet storms as we went through a dry stretch and those winds and dry fuels would have sparked many grass fires.

I enjoy seeing green grass if we can’t get the snow and warm spells means more outside time :-). If last weeks snow was just a state further south….

Mike
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Mike

Fantastic write up Gary! This will be a wet winter with very little snow. My snow prediction is a max of 10″ for 2015-2016 winter. No cold air. Bring on spring!!!

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Please lol

Mike
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Mike

Terry,

I am a huge snow lover. Lets all be real. There just isn’t any cold air for KC. That is a reality. We all believe in the LRC and if you do believe then face the facts we just wont have cold air. I for one hope that I am wrong but this winter will be wet and warm winter.

Mike

terry mercer
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terry mercer

You dont know that Mike if we aren’t going to have any Arctic outbreaks this winter. Did you not see Gary’s pliminary winter forecast? Probably not? Because gary said it was going to be in the right track for a few good snowstorms. Gary will figure out when we’re going to have the cold spell in this year’s LRC. We’re going to have some believe me.

Mike
Guest
Mike

Terry,

You are correct I do not know what is going to happen in the future. All I know is that the cycles will repeat. All of the long range models show the temps being to warm for frozen precipitation. I am sure when Gary does his more in depth Winter Forecast in a couple weeks he will lower his snow totals. Like I said earlier I hope I am wrong because I really do enjoy snow. I want it to snow just as bad as you but at the same time I am a realist.

Mike

terry mercer
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terry mercer

It’s cool no problem we’re cool too. I’m not sure about that because someone else asked that question he probably won’t lower his snowfall totals he doesn’t plan to because he told that to someone that on the blog one day. Plus we’re going into winter time so I’m sure we’ll have plenty of cold air then available.

Alice
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Alice

Thank you Gary !
Hopefully no ice on Sunday !

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary there storm’s system that we are now later this weekend. Will that system return in the winter LRC cycle this winter?

terry mercer
Guest
terry mercer

I meant to say that we are talking about later this weekend? Will it return this winter?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

A bit too warm for ice here Friday

Clint
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Clint

AW I think you may be right, you have been calling this all week. If it happens I will tip my cap and then throw a brick at you because I hate ice lol

AW
Guest
AW

I feel like we may have an ice storm on our hands. NAM, GEM, and GFS are all trending towards an icy mix Friday…

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good early morning to you sir!!! I do not envy you at all with the upcoming weekend forecast….not at all!!!! I think I understand why the 0Z GFS is keeping the frezing line just north of KC for the whole event. Is it becuae it slows the main vort down so much that the tropical moisture is able to over whelm the pattern so to speak combined with a weaker push from that vort in the northern stream. Is this even on the right track?? This wouuld also coincide with a different AO forecast for this set of runs… Read more »