Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Next week I will be writing up the extensive and in-depth winter forecast as we identify more of the features that are now cycling through this brand new and unique weather pattern. Today, we are going to talk about the still growing monster El Niño, A Thanksgiving Weekend Storm System, and a developing hurricane. Yes, a late November hurricane is likely going to form in the next few days over the eastern Pacific Ocean and it may have impacts in the United States as the moisture gets drawn into this developing storm system.
Let’s begin with the latest El Niño status:
The latest temperature anomalies have come in, and this powerful, and possibly strongest El Niño ever recorded, continues to strengthen. The latest anomaly just reached it’s warmest temperature at 3.1°C above average. We are now in a full fledged powerful El Niño event. The Tropical Pacific Ocean waters are quite warm off the South American coast and there will be major impacts this winter.
Possible Hurricane Development:
The eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is supposed to end on November 3oth. This storm may become the 18th named storm this season, and if it is named, it will be called Sandra.
A tropical system is now developing well off the Mexico coast. You can see the developing system on this enhanced satellite picture from around 7 AM this morning.
A Thanksgiving Weekend Storm System:
A strong storm is now developing near the northern California coast. There is a heavy precipitation event in progress from northern California north into Washington and Oregon with snow at the higher elevations. This is another system coming in from the northwest, so it is not impacting Southern California with the highly anticipated rains from any El Niño influence so far. These rains may come later in the winter, but for now these systems are just missing them to the north.
This first map on the left can be clicked on for a larger view. It shows the flow aloft today. There is a wave of energy being kicked out of the western states and out over the plains, but it is a dry system. This would likely be a wet system in May or June when more low level moisture is available. It will produce a band of clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two today. The main and rather strong storm is intensifying over California today. The main jet stream is still over Canada, and this flow is indicative of an AO and NAO positive index.
Look at what happens by the day after Thanksgiving. The upper low gets stuck, and completely cut-off from the polar jet stream over Canada. The flow becomes even more split off the west coast, and this system will be producing some excessive rainfall. The models will have a very difficult time in the next few model runs while this unusual process develops. What I mean, is while this high over low tries to form the flow aloft will likely have many different solutions, and how it will impact the weather in each location is going to be challenging. Take a look at this precipitation forecast between now and Friday night:
As you can see there is a forecast of over five inches of rain over parts of north Texas, Oklahoma, and into northern Arkansas. This is the area we picked out in our preliminary winter forecast to be very wet this winter, and it is already starting. After Friday, the pattern becomes even more complex. Take a look:
By the end of the weekend, the upper low will begin to get forced out. For Kansas City to have any winter precipitation this upper low, that you see in Idaho, would have to be much farther south. Or, at least that lead strong disturbance would have to track across Texas and not southwestern Kansas. This is another symptom of the high AO and NAO indexes.
What does all of this mean? We will sort it out in the next few days. For Kansas City it likely means that all of the precipitation will be in the liquid form despite a strong cold front moving through and a storm coming out into the colder air. In other patterns this would be a recipe for snow and ice, and there will likely be that transition zone, but farther north and west. We will discuss this as we get closer to the holiday weekend.
Thank you for sharing in this exciting weather experience. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.