Looking Into Thanksgiving Weekend

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

I saw some very wet snowflakes, or what I like to call slush droplets. They were definitely very melted snowflakes that came down in a heavier downpour around 1 AM. As it moved east, it finally changed to all snow for a brief while just one county east of where I live.  From slush droplets to flight delays. Chicago had many flight delays today from the storm that is moving off to the east.  Here is the 10:43 AM radar image snowing the snowstorm in progress this morning:

Screen Shot 2015-11-21 at 10.42.06 AM

LRC Update:  Here is a comment that came in that was posted just as I started a new blog. I will respond here in today’s blog:

From blogger Wes:

First off, let me say that I have been following the LRC for years now, and I am a firm believer in it. I enjoy watching the cycle unfold and repeat through the following year. I have a question about this year’s cycle. I have been watching it, and I was wondering if the big Thanksgiving Week system is related to the one that struck in late October, after the 21st. The main part of the system lifted into the Great Plains, but a southern piece of energy remained and combined with Pacific moisture. This resulted in an overrunning event in Texas with lots of heavy rain near/N of the frontal boundary. The late fall/winter part of this cycle would suggest a potential for Winter Weather in Texas – as the GFS and, to a slightly lesser extent, the Canadian model show late next week. I also noticed that the cool snap that preceded the late October system is similar to this one right now, in terms of the position and strength of the high pressure. Is this just a coincidence or part of the pattern/cycle?

My response:  First of all, thank you for asking these great questions Wes.  One of the main aspects of the LRC is that the pattern that sets up will have main features that become the dominant features in the overall pattern.  Storm systems may look similar in other parts of the pattern, and not just the ones that line up well from cycle to cycle.  There are these long-term long wave troughs and ridges where storm systems will intensify as they move into the troughs and weaken as they move out. The later October 21st system is related to what is going on in the next week in that way, but it may not be right on cycle. That storm will also repeat. I am unclear of the cycle length at the moment, and when we clearly identify it, then we can see where all of this fits. So, it isn’t a coincidence. It is all part of this unique weather pattern.

Thanksgiving Week Developments:

Take a look at this dew point forecast from this morning’s GFS model. 55° to 65° dew points are forecast to surge into the plains states from the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning. And, notice the higher dew points over the central Pacific Ocean too. I just found that interesting.  The dew points are almost always low with the cool Pacific Ocean water near the coast. This is why Southern California is very different from Florida. The coastal areas of Southern California are under the influence of the Alaskan current where the water flows from the Gulf of Alaska down the west coast. In Florida and along the east coast the water flows in from the tropics with the Gulf stream and this high humidity fuels the summer thunderstorms that happen there, and of course it fuels any tropical system that may develop.

1

The higher low level moisture surging in will be the low level fuel for another heavy precipitation event. Take a look at the surface valid Wednesday evening:

2

There are two strong surface highs, one over the northwest Atlantic, and the other one, a somewhat Arctic high near the USA/Canada border. The conditions are becoming favorable for this very cold air mass to develop.

The new data has trended in the GFS direction on the timing and strength of the upper low next week. We will discuss this more specifically on Sunday.

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and sharing in this exciting weather experience. Have a great weekend. Let’s see how this next week sets up.

Gary

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Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

The Euro is suggesting 5 to 10 inches by the 240hr mark. That’s a long ways out though.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

For Euro data, I use a site/phone app called HazWX. It’s a pay site, but gives awesome graphics, and data outputs. My buddy Brandon Sullivan who graduated from OU in meteorology created it with his small team. They were doing quite well, and then sold out to AccuWeather. So along with making bank from his modeling site, he is now a lead data analyst. He is doing well for himself, lol. While I dislike AccuWeather, I was fully on board with him when he was debating the idea after his dream of working for the SPC went south on him.… Read more »

Toni Taylor
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Toni Taylor

Thanks Alex,

I use Eurowx.com, and enjoy it. And, the GFS 00z also had that snowstorm, but not the latest GFS. Let’s watch it closely.

Gary

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

The Euro is wanting to close November out with a Major Snowstorm. That would be awesome if it panned out. About 1 week away, though. GFS isn’t on board.

clint
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clint

Alex do you have a link. GFS Gives us a little at 195 hour mark

Dale
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Dale

The gfs is having difficulty grasping onto a solution regarding the cold next week. One day it’s brutal cold, niw it’s not bad. What is the European Model showing for next weeks temps?

Wes
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Thank you for taking the time to answer my question! I am very excited to see what happens in the coming weeks with the LRC. Have a good weekend! -Wes