LRC Cycle 1 & Let’s Go Royals

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The weather for all of the playoff games the next few day is looking great. Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. If you know anything about the cycling weather pattern hypothesis named by the 41 Action News weather bloggers over 10 years ago, then you know what we are seeing, at the beginning of this year’s pattern, is not good for us weather enthusiasts. The other thing that you may know is that it is still very early and major changes can happen at any time. We likely just experienced day 1 of LRC 2015-2016 yesterday. And, suddenly the chance of rain in Kansas City is down to near zero through this evening, which is great news for the Royals home playoff game against Houston. It should be rocking out at Kauffman stadium tonight. The two wild card games saw pitching dominate and the road teams won. Hopefully the Royals can get a big game 1 victory tonight. Take a look at the 500 mb flow valid this evening:

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I got an A+ in Synoptic Meteorology Lab at the University of Oklahoma, one of my favorite classes.  I only got a B+ in Synoptic Meteorology, which wasn’t fair because I had the top grade of all of the undergraduates and my professor, Dr. Fred Carr gave the three graduate students in our class an A, and I got the top grade for the undergraduates because he graded on a curve. But, it was an undergraduate course, so that may have been unfair, not that I have been thinking about it for 30 years, LOL.  In Synoptic Lab we were taught to plot maps. A black dashed line shows the troughs, and the squiggly lines show the ridges.

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Now, what do you see on this map above?  I didn’t plot it today, I just wanted you to look at it and see if you can see the features.  This is the 90 hour forecast valid 7 PM Sunday.  It is just incredible how dry it is from the west coast to the east coast, so there should not be any weather problems, except for some October heat building, this weekend for the baseball and football games.  Take a look at the strong surface low well north of the USA/Canada border.  And, there is a warm front way up there and a trough extending south from the surface low that goes all the way to the Texas/Mexico border.  This will provide the conditions for record breaking October heat Sunday into Monday.

Not Good News For California:

GFS 240 Hour October 17

Here is the good and bad news.  The good news is that the pattern is just now evolving and it is still in it’s formative stage. So, when you see a map ten days out at this time of the year, and we don’t have any other cycle to compare it to, then we know that either this model has a good handle on it, which would be very bad news for those wanting a significant break from the California drought, or this model is just wrong and there is still hope it will look very different ten days from now. This near the west coast ridge better go away and soon. It is lasting way too long and this could very well be a significant part of this pattern. I always tell you to not jump to conclusions until we get to around November 10th. So, for now, let’s hope this is wrong. It would not be good for KC either.

That’s it for now. Thank you for sharing in this LRC Forecast Experience.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. The weather is looking excellent for today’s baseball games in Toronto and KC.  Let’s Go Royals!

Gary

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Mr. PeteGregBaseball MikeCRWHeat Miser Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Sounds like a dry winter?

Greg
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I’m hoping for a dry, milder winter…have to do alot of driving on Twin Cities metro roads to my stepson’s basketball games!!!

Baseball Mike
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Good evening Gary–it is pouring here in Berryton–I don’t think it will last long but since September 20 we have only had .30 of an inch until tonight—I hope this is not another dry year as we enter into the new LRC–Anyone know where Denny Mathews is? Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

If Old Man Winter were person and if he were to promise a dry, boring winter, I believe I would punch him in the face!

Gary H
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Gary H

I, too, am concerned with the Euro and GFS both agreeing pretty well on the next 14 days 500 mb outlook. Very boring pattern for the country with ridge in the west and trough in the east with, really, no energy digging into the SW to break down the ridge. Either both models are wrong or this is not a good LRC this year and may lead to very dry conditions across the Midwest. Here’s hoping to a “2nd phase” to this year’s LRC that is stormier.

Gary

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Good Morning Gary. Looks like a weak cold front will be pushing your way today. I’m in Colorado and they said the front wI’ll push though the front rage in the afternoon. We’ve had moisture pulling up from the southwest the last several days up in the mountains, but it will finally clear out. What about that low with all of the rain that’s hanging off the PNW and Alaska coast? Will it just move across through Canada or will it get pulled into the trough as the trough moves east? The 10 day has a low off of SoCal… Read more »

Kathy
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Kathy

As I was driving to work this morning, I noticed how dry it was. I thought to myself “if this is the beginning of the LRC, then we are in trouble for the year. ” The map this morning is BORING. And even though the LRC may cycle to something more exciting in the next phase, I worry that we may have a boring winter. I hope I am wrong.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary can a ridge like that last year to year and be in the new evolving LRC pattern? Is there still that chance that we are still seen some of the old LRC pattern? New LRC pattern thats just now in day 2? Do you still think that these models are still having a hard time handling the new evolving LRC pattern?

CRW
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CRW

I have been watching and I have a feel that the ridge isn’t going anywhere in the near term. I think it’s just one part of the LRC.