Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The weather could not be much calmer than it is right now, considering it’s the last day of April. Take a look at this morning’s satellite picture:
This is the infrared satellite picture taken from Weathertap.com. There is an area of thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, but those are the closest thunderstorms. What did I just say? How incredible is that? It is practically clear across all of the United States and almost all of Mexico this morning. The jet stream has retreated north and severe weather season is taking a big nap.
As we look ahead through early next week, the flow aloft will continue to be too weak to support any organized severe weather. The flow aloft will gradually become strong enough by the middle to end of next week and severe weather will return to mostly the western plains states. We don’t see any major storm systems for a while, but if you watch our video made over a month ago for the week of May 17th to 23rd, then you will know that is one of our target weeks for a potential severe weather outlook. Go to the top of the screen and get your 12 week forecasts, and you can see the video there.
El Niño has arrived
A weak El Niño event is now in progress. The Climate Prediction Center defines a full fledged El Niño to be when five consecutive three month averages in the 3.4 region are 0.5° above average. We not only reached that five month averages in a row last month, but El Niño is strengthening. It is quite rare to see El Niño get stronger as we move out of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
El Nino has strengthened before as we moved into late spring and summer, but when it has it has ended up in a strong El Niño the next winter. Two years this happened were in the 1982-1983 & 1997-1998 winters. Look at the forecasts as of this week:
What does this all mean? We will be discussing this as we move through the summer and into next fall. I would like to analyze those years and others before I come to any possible conclusions.
El Niño only has an influence on the bigger picture, the LRC. The pattern continues to cycle as you can see on the LRC Index:
Have a great day. We will look ahead to our next chance of rain and thunderstorms and the severe weather risks for next week in tomorrow’s blog.