Where Are We Now: The State Of The LRC As Of This Week

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Good Sunday morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We will begin with a look at today’s severe weather risk, and then this blog entry will end with a showcase of where we are now within the cycling pattern, and a great example of our weather forecasts that is being used to help plan and create peace of mind for brides and vacation planners.

Before we get started let’s look back at yesterday’s severe weather reports:

yesterday

If you were watching any of the national media outlets the past few days you may have walked away thinking that significant severe weather would be occurring with outbreak after outbreak Friday and Saturday.  The term “enhanced” that has been added to the slight risks this year is likely throwing off the ones who decide on how to cover the weather forecast and weather topics at these national outlets and other media outlets.  The risks have not been upgraded to moderate, and the increase to enhanced was likely way overdone in the past two days. Yesterday there wasn’t even one tornado report, and the day before there were 15 tornado reports, but it really wasn’t that active, in my opinion.  Pretty soon, if not already, people will not be taking these seriously when they here things like, “32 million people are in the path of this horrific storm”.  Weather2020, as we grow, will hopefully be a voice of reason in the coming years, at least it is one of our goals.

Now, here we go again today with the word enhanced.  In year’s past it would be a slight risk. The point here, is that it is still a slight risk of severe weather.  Now, even that word, “slight”, I think should be worked on as well.  Here is today’s risk:

day1otlk_1300

This risk has continued to shift farther and farther south.  Let’s look into the LRC and how it lines up with this week’s weather.

The LRC Today

We have been describing this year’s Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) as cycling in the 43 to 50 day range, centered right down the middle on an average 46.5 day cycle.  Take a look at LRC Cycle 1 from October 23, 2014:

LRC Cycle 1 October 23

According to the LRC, the weather pattern sets up in early October, evolving from late September into early November, and this is the beginning of that year’s LRC.  The pattern then is established with long term long-wave troughs and ridges that return on cycle from then on through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and into the next summer before a new unique pattern sets up the next fall.  The first cycle begins in October. Now, with this said, the pattern is always cycling, but Weather2020 has figured out the organization to the chaos with the LRC. We have presented dozens of examples this season, just go back in the blog and you can see these examples of this year’s pattern. Look at the above map on October 23, 2014, and look at the map below on April 28th. One can clearly see the comparison of the the patterns from October to April. I have labeled the five most prominent features.

LRC Cycle 5 April 28

The pattern is cycling regularly, and our knowledge of this cycling pattern allows our Weather2020 team of meteorologists which includes, myself, Jeff Penner, Doug Heady, Eswar Iyer, and other fellow colleagues to make accurate long range weather forecasts.  Jeremy Nelson is using it in his television market in Milwaukee, and Brett Anthony is using it in his Tulsa market.  In the next few days following this first example the pattern will continue to line up. The models may make major errors and our team knows when the models are likely right and just as important when they are likely wrong. Last night’s GFS had a pretty good handle on the LRC all the way through. Take a look at what happens four days after this first example above:

LRC Cycle 5 GFS May 2

I again labeled the features from #1 to #5 and you can compare the 500 mb maps, one a forecast above, and the second one the actual data from October 27, 2014 below.  Have you done your math?  These two examples are comparing LRC Cycle 1 and LRC Cycle 5.  October 27th is 187 days before May 2nd.  187 divided by 4 is 46.75.  Yes, almost exactly down the middle of what we have been describing since last fall, a 46.5 day cycle.  We knew in late October that the pattern would look like this in late April or early May. It’s right on schedule.

LRC Cycle 1 October 27

We are making long range weather forecasts, accurate weather forecasts at a 75% rate, on this site.  We strive to be 100% accurate, but forecasting the future isn’t that easy, but we have figured out how to do it.  If you are planning a wedding, a vacation, or just want to know what is going to happen in your neighborhood you can get the forecast by clicking on the week. A discussion will pop out like this one below. Weather2020 received a request for a wedding forecast on May 2nd, their wedding date and this is the forecast we made on a broad scale.  We can get specific to a location like we have documented with the last two Super Bowl forecasts, including the only accurate weather forecast for the Super Bowl that was played outside in East Rutherford, NJ. Weather2020 forecasted temperatures to warm into the 50s for that game and over a month before the game was played, and it verified.

The forecast for this week made 12 weeks ago is now verifying for this week. Well, let’s see how it plays out. In the past even a five to seven day forecast was often wrong, and in most outlets they are still way off. Our 12 weeks of forecasts, #12weekforecast if you have twitter, are better than an average 7 day forecast is today in other outlets. Here is the forecast that is on our site for the Kansas City region made 12 weeks ago:

Screen Shot 2015-04-26 at 8.51.41 AM

Have a great Sunday. We will work on our next blog later in the day on Monday! Let us know what you think of today’s discussion and if you have any questions just let us know.  Thank you for your participation in this LRC Weather Forecast Experience Blog.

Gary

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

I’m kind of concerned that this “cold phase” had most of the cold air stay to our north. We actually only had a 5 day stretch below normal, with way more days above than below. Come June/July/August, the jet stream is going to be even further north. The “cold phase” may not make it out of the Dakotas.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good Sunday evening to your sir!!! Thanks so much for the in depth and informative write up….I know these take a tremendous amount of time and effort and just wanted to say how much it is appreciated!!! And….Amazing maps!!! 🙂 We wound up with just under 1/2 an inch here….enough for sure to keep everything green and moist. It will be interesting to see for sure how this cold phase sets up in early June and then again in mid-July. While I think it can for sure be argued that this pattern can produce some heat stretches….above average even… Read more »