Today’s Severe Weather Risk

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1:30 PM Update:

Good afternoon,

I just plotted the 1  PM surface map as you can see below.  The warm front is rather ill defined. The dry line also has not firmed up. The surface low has a broad circulation, and I can’t find a cold front at this hour.  What does this mean? Well, it means that this system hasn’t become organized enough yet to generate new thunderstorms. By this evening the surface low will strengthen slightly, but these surface boundaries (a boundary is a front, trough, or dry line) are likely not going to become much better defined.

2015042418_metars_ict

The SPC moved the slight risk a bit farther west. You can watch our live stream at www.kshb.com beginning at 4 PM. I am expecting some organized thunderstorms to form before sunset way out west and then move northeast and develop eastward after dark.  There isn’t a slight risk in KC, but we must continue to monitor it closely.  The area of rain cooled air over southern Oklahoma and Texas may be a factor as well as it moves north. There may only be a thin band of destabilization.

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

A storm system is moving out into the plains this morning. At the surface, cyclogenisis is going to be in progress today.  What is cyclogenisis?  It is a term that meteorologists use to describe the development os a mid-latitude storm system.  A low pressure area will be rapidly growing in strength with a pressure gradient tightening up in the presence of vertical wind shear (winds increasing with height) and convective instability (rising motion. These two processes cause the pressure to lower at the surface, and this is what is happening in the next 12 hours.

Right now there are multiple low pressure areas developing this morning, but the main one is beginning to form over southwestern Kansas.  If it were really all coming together for Kansas City today, then this surface low would have already formed, but it matures later today and tonight. We will be monitoring and plotting this development closely as there is a risk of severe weather, but more likely out over central Kansas today:

4

The surface lows congeal into one strong surface low later today and tonight, and by Saturday morning you can see this, not so classic, set-up.  The cold front is strange. The warm front reorganizes. The dry line is there, but a bit ill defined as it moves out of it’s Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma source region. It’s a strong surface low, and we will have to pay close attention to the thunderstorms that form. Some severe weather is likely, but how significant and wide spread will it be?

5

Morning showers and thunderstorms were weak, but increasing at 7:45 AM. Here is an image meteorologist JD Rudd posted this morning:

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This area of rain is increasing, and as it grows and gradually moves east, a pool of rain cooled air will likely develop and influence the stability over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The cloud cover, lower dew points, and rain will influence the instability for quite a long time today, and this will likely lead to a late generation of strong thunderstorms over central Kansas.

Today’s severe weather risk is slight. The SPC continues to have this “enhanced” slight risk area, and they have shifted it west, and they placed an area farther south as well, and they just reduced the tornado risk to 5% over Kansas:

day1otlk_1200

 

From the latest 8 AM update:

COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S…AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER…DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS…POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES…IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND…INTO EARLY TNGT.”

This is what we have been concerned with the entire time. When the energy comes out later this afternoon and evening, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, we will have to see where the thunderstorm complex forms. It will likely still target part of the KC viewing area later this evening.

Have a great day. Let’s see how it all sets up. We can discuss the new data in the comments section of this LRC Forecast Experience Blog.

Gary

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Getmbuck
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Getmbuck

Poof factor verified. Missed the show again !

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The whole system is drifting north…

Dobber
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Dobber

the sun Is out

Mike Combs
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Mike Combs

Happy Birthday Gary!

Getmbuck
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Getmbuck

After .12 this morning April total at 131st and Murlen in Olathe is 3.48 inches. Total for year here is 5.83 so April has been a blessing for precip. Hope to add to it next 24 hrs. Still concerned about the poof factor killing the show before it gets here

Jack
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Jack

So, Gary, are you thinking storms will form out over south-central Kansas then possibly combine into a MCS with some large hail and winds?

AW
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AW

NWS out of Topeka…

http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=top&embed=#.VTprklLegy4

Storms develop in Central Kansas and move east-northeast. Large hail and damaging winds possible. Tornadoes possible west of Topeka. Some chance of strong tornadoes. Far Northeast Kansas, little to no tornado potential.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Ok its chilly out there. I don’t see it getting much warmer today

rred95
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rred95

I assume the widespread wet system for next week , that looked so promising for us, is going to mostly miss us to the south?

Gary H
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Gary H

Ignore my comment. I hit the wrong “Reply” button.

rred95
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rred95

I know we have to talk about the chance of severe weather, but what about rain? is there a still a good chance of beneficial rain this weekend?

Savannah
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Savannah

My first thought this morning was “No thunderstorms or rain this morning AND warmer temps today than expected… sounds like our severe risk for today went up”. But it looks like it did the exact opposite. What gives?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Looked cold in Chicago last night. Chances of another brawl tonight?