Severe Weather Risks Next Few Days

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience blog.  A storm system, near Southern California today in the upper levels of the atmosphere, is now beginning to be ejected out into the southern Rocky Mountain states and plains states.  As it approaches severe weather will be possible in many areas. The biggest risk appears to be setting up for Friday evening and Friday night, but there are many questions as to where the surface features will set up.

day2otlk_0600

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this risk for Friday.  Severe thunderstorms are likely in the slight risk and enhanced slight risk areas.  From the SPC: “Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage, and some tornadoes will be possible across the central plains southward into the southern plains and eastward across the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.  An upper level trough will progress into the southern and central plains on Friday. Large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching upper=level trough will aid convective development during the late afternoon along the warm front in east-central Kansas and southward along a dry line. The models are in general agreement that a cluster of thunderstorms will organize across eastern Kansas late Friday afternoon and move into western Missouri during the early evening.”

Now, they are quite positive that this is coming together, and it very well may all come together on Friday, so let’s pay very close attention. But, there are some factors that are still rather uncertain and these factors will play into how this comes together tomorrow.

  • The first one is the strength and position of the warm front
  • The second one is the morning showers and thunderstorms that will likely influence cloud cover and instability
  • The third one is the cloud cover that could impact instability

Here is the surface forecast from a really cool new site where you can get the European model. It is a pay site at Eurowx.com.  The European model and the NAM model are the two models agreeing the most.  These models have been the most consistent, but it doesn’t mean they are exactly right. Let’s take a look at last night’s European model surface forecast showing the features:

1

The European Model is modeling morning thunderstorms tracking across eastern Kansas into western Missouri early Friday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms farther south into eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas. These areas of rain and thunderstorms will likely influence the surface set-up for a few hours.  By Friday night, as you can see below, the upper level storm is strong enough to help force a strong surface low to develop over central Kansas. I know we talked about this in the previous storm that hit Illinois on day 2, but was pretty much a bust on day 1. The timing of these surface features are just a few hours slow for Friday’s set up, but this does not mean it won’t still trigger significant severe weather this time.

2

I will finish this blog entry by 11 AM……….

Have a great Thursday. Let’s see how this all sets up.

Gary

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bill in Lawrence
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bill in Lawrence

Gary….. Good evening to you sir!!!! I know….crazy….I’m blogging and there is not a flake of snow or a freezing temperature within 400 miles!!!!! 🙂 I’m really not sure if this is even close to being a correct idea but it looks like the 0Z GFS and NAM are presenting a little bit different solution for tomorrow night….the GFS looks to track the upper level low and surface low a bit further north than the NAM….on the GFS the triple point is about 30-40 miles north between St. Joe and KC where the NAM places it pretty close to KC….it… Read more »

Jack
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Jack

Gary, looking forward to your opinion on what YOU think is going to happen, not just what the models are saying. Trust your gut.

Rockdoc
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Don’t mean to horn in but there is a great writeup on shortwave troughs and their potential affect on weather in this season as well as winter! The weather bloggers in Denver put together a series on how to ID them. Take a look if interested.

Rockdoc
Guest

That’s Weather5280/blog. Very informative. I know Gary can add on his thoughts on these features and what they mean. Looks like a very busy day tomorrow for Gary and the gang. Hang on to our seats and enjoy the weather ride! Just hope no one gets hit should all ingredients get added to the mixing bowl at the same time.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

New data shows that KC metro stays mostly dry tomorrow with some clouds

AW
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AW

Just a random question for you Gary…

If you were to go to Mars (or any human)…
1: Would you use the same system as on Earth to forecast temps (or any other planet)?
2: Do you think that the LRC also exists on Mars and other planets, despite most having lack of liquid water (or any other liquid)

AW
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AW

P.S. If you respond and it’s after 1:45, could you answer on the KSHB blog?

Mike
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Mike

Alice, Nothing has changed from last year, from the year before, and the million years before that. Severe weather set-ups are unknown until they actually unfold the day of.The forecast is for thunderstorms to develop in and around KC tomorrow, severe weather is a possibility. That’s all you need to know. Will early morning thunderstorms mess up later in the day thunderstorms, we’ll have to see. Where will the warm front be, where will the heavier rains be, well, we know they’ll be here or very close, so, that’s what you need to plan for. All weather outlets are playing… Read more »

Alice
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Alice

Mike….
It was not me .
Read my reply above to Gary

Craig
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Craig
Rockdoc
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Looks like good wind sheer at 500mb. So this may add more fuel to the fire around 6pm. Question is what are the winds higher up?

Rockdoc
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Meant to ask what are the projected winds both above and below 500mb which is at ~18000 feet. Will there be enough sheer to start rotation.

Kathy
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Kathy

I’ve learned a little after reading yesterday’s blog. So, if the morning storms stick around and/or it stays cool and cloudy all day, we will probably have no severe weather, but if the sun comes out, destabilizes the atmosphere and it warms up and/or the warm front is on our door step, then we need to be on our guards, right? Guess I’ll be paying close attention to the weather tomorrow. Thanks for the great info and explanation.

Mike Combs
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Mike Combs

Because hail forms further up in the clouds, severe hail can fall quite a ways north of a warm front. The upward slope of the warm front may be just a few degrees. On the other hand, tornadoes need the wind shear/rotation to be very near the surface so tornadoes form when the warm front is right on your doorstep (as you said).