Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience blog. A storm system, near Southern California today in the upper levels of the atmosphere, is now beginning to be ejected out into the southern Rocky Mountain states and plains states. As it approaches severe weather will be possible in many areas. The biggest risk appears to be setting up for Friday evening and Friday night, but there are many questions as to where the surface features will set up.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this risk for Friday. Severe thunderstorms are likely in the slight risk and enhanced slight risk areas. From the SPC: “Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage, and some tornadoes will be possible across the central plains southward into the southern plains and eastward across the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley. An upper level trough will progress into the southern and central plains on Friday. Large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching upper=level trough will aid convective development during the late afternoon along the warm front in east-central Kansas and southward along a dry line. The models are in general agreement that a cluster of thunderstorms will organize across eastern Kansas late Friday afternoon and move into western Missouri during the early evening.”
Now, they are quite positive that this is coming together, and it very well may all come together on Friday, so let’s pay very close attention. But, there are some factors that are still rather uncertain and these factors will play into how this comes together tomorrow.
- The first one is the strength and position of the warm front
- The second one is the morning showers and thunderstorms that will likely influence cloud cover and instability
- The third one is the cloud cover that could impact instability
Here is the surface forecast from a really cool new site where you can get the European model. It is a pay site at Eurowx.com. The European model and the NAM model are the two models agreeing the most. These models have been the most consistent, but it doesn’t mean they are exactly right. Let’s take a look at last night’s European model surface forecast showing the features:
The European Model is modeling morning thunderstorms tracking across eastern Kansas into western Missouri early Friday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms farther south into eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas. These areas of rain and thunderstorms will likely influence the surface set-up for a few hours. By Friday night, as you can see below, the upper level storm is strong enough to help force a strong surface low to develop over central Kansas. I know we talked about this in the previous storm that hit Illinois on day 2, but was pretty much a bust on day 1. The timing of these surface features are just a few hours slow for Friday’s set up, but this does not mean it won’t still trigger significant severe weather this time.
I will finish this blog entry by 11 AM……….
Have a great Thursday. Let’s see how this all sets up.