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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

There are two storm systems showing up on the models that have our attention this morning. Storm chasers will be heading to the Red River Valley today, and then the will be drifting into Kansas on Friday as this first storm system approaches.  This first storm system will feature an advancing warm front and a rather strong surface low that is forecast to track into central and eastern Kansas Friday night:

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Today, there is a stationary front located near the Red River Valley along the Texas/Oklahoma border and this is the focus of today’s severe weather risk.  Here are the risks for the next three days:

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day2otlk_0600

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This system on Friday still has questions on timing, strength, the position of the fronts and surface low, morning rain and thunderstorms that could affect the evening activity, and more. We will look deeper into this next storm system on the KSHB blog later today, and in this LRC Forecast Experience blog tomorrow. As usual, let me know if you have any questions.

This storm, and the next one due in next week are right on the LRC schedule.  This second one is a storm we have been targeting for wide spread heavy rain and thunderstorms with severe weather for 12 weeks now.  The models have just picked up on it in the past 48 hours.  Look at this set-up for early next week:

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As you can see, Kansas City is in the 2 to 3 inch zone with a strong surface cyclone developing. The European model has been farther south, so let’s see how this looks in the coming days. I will be showing both storm systems tonight on 41 Action News, and you can watch the weathercasts streaming online at www.kshb.com.

Have a great Wednesday!

Gary

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Tom Smith
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I just wondered when we would be through with the cold phase. Probably my imagination, but it seems to be lasting longer this time.

Kathy
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Kathy

I agree with AW, except I vividly remember the set-up on Sunday, May 4, 2003, when it was in the mid-50’s at our house and close to 80 in areas to the south in areas like Pleasanton and Garnett. An F4 tornado raged through parts of Wyandotte, Platte and Clay Counties that day, and many of my friends and neighbors down the road lost their homes. Early in the day, I remember telling my husband that it was too cold for tornadoes despite the NWS putting KC in a high risk area. Not sure how all the ingredients came together… Read more »

AW
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AW
Mike Combs
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Mike Combs

Kathy your statement about the temperatures was a clue for that day – when you have that great a temperature contrast you have a strong surface front between the two points (your place and Pleasanton in this case). Fronts look kind of like a pointed knife, blade upward, under a rug. The rug represents the warm air and the knife the cold air. With a warm front the rug is pushing the knife backward. With a cold front the knife is sliding deeper under the rug. Both kinds of front cause air to move upward. That day a strong warm… Read more »

Kathy
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Kathy

Fascinating information all. Since I live in NE Clay county, the warm fronts usually make it to us later than those of you who, like Gary, live in southern areas of town. I will remember, now, to be weary of days like May 4, 2003 when I was in the colder air but areas to the south were much warmer. And yes, I do remember it getting much warmer as the day progressed. I’m learning a lot here. And thanks Mike and AW for the NOAA archive and explanation.

Gary H
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Gary H

I hope we have a nice Sunday this weekend. It was bad enough that last weekend was very wet, and I’m trying to get the house ready to list. This weekend needs to produce good weather, at least in part! However, the grass is very green and thriving, so I can’t complain too much.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Had 32 degrees this morning in Maryville. No frost though, assuming the dew points were too low, along with humidity level low. Just a guess. Hoping for warmer afternoon, got some mowing to do!
Michael

AW
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AW

Seems a bit on the cooler side for Severe Weather. I Understand why they put Wichita in enhanced, as it’s going to be 78, but Kansas City? I don’t think we’ll make 65. NWS is really pushing it…

Dobber
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Dobber

Cold rain is fine with me