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Good Friday afternoon Weather2020 bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to set up as the LRC is evolving right before our eyes. There was some significant blocking at high latitudes that developed earlier in October, and there has been some indication of that coming back around mid-late November. This mornings GFS run did not have blocking at all, but recent runs have had some blocking in around two weeks, so let’s watch it closely. The influence on the weather pattern would be significant, but the LRC is still dominant and how the pattern is cycling and where the main features set-up are essential for making our winter forecast. We are working on this now, and our winter forecast will be out in another three weeks or so.

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A hard freeze will be in progress by Saturday morning in many spots, and then this next change will rapidly be approaching by the end of the weekend. A stretched out, positively tilted trough is forecast to extend from southern Canada north of North Dakota, southwest into a weakness in the flow over Colorado, and then southwest to Baja. The northeast to southwest tilt is a positive tilt, and usually would push the precipitation pattern off to the east of Kansas City. However, something interesting has changed since this new LRC evolved from September to current.  And, look at the precipitation forecast for Monday evening, with the somewhat tropical connection to Tropical Storm Vance:

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So, it appears we are set up for a heavy plains rain event, shifted westward from previous years, and a brand new pattern continues to evolve. Very exciting, and Winter Is On The Line, as I titled this blog.  We will go  a bit more in-depth into these developments over the weekend. Have a great weekend and I should have the blog updated by Sunday morning at the latest.

Gary

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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary – I’m confused – wasn’t just a few days ago you and many other mets were saying that there was no freeze in sight for the forseeable future. Look where we are this AM….

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Frequent snow in the northern latitudes is a product of the blocking as the storm track hammers the northern latitudes while the southern latitudes stay warm and relatively snow-free. It’s more an indicator that our winter will lack snow than it is anything else.

Terry Mercer
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Terry Mercer

Foodl3 I’ve heard the more snow up there that the weaker The polar vortex becomes and Is more likely to come down south in North America.

Mike
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Mike

f00dl3,

You might be right, however, the snow cover last October was observed in this same region prior to last winter too. (more coverage this year compared to last year)

Mike
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Mike

The OPI(October Pattern Index) finished way negative. Some would say that this is a indicator for how strong winter’s chill will be. (I think Gary H. mentioned this one time)

Mike
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Mike

Hey Gary, Winter will be very white and cold. Look at all that snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Way ahead of pace for this time of year. Cold breeds snow and snow breeds cold…throw in our way above average moisture pattern so far, we should have plenty of moisture to work with this winter. We have another wet storm coming as you mentioned in the blog. Could it be a rainy winter???Oh no!! I have my concerns about wild temp swings, but, we had that last year early on and then it turned cold and stayed cold. Remember early… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think he’s just trying to spread hype about it to some extent, but I think it partly depends on your definition of “bad”. If you like cold and snowy, blocking up north is bad, because it keeps the cold air bottled up in Canada. If you like warm, wet and mild winters, it’s good – because it means the storm systems that move in pull more moisture up from the gulf. The downside, is when there’s blocking up north during the winter, if it’s anything like 2011-12, that translates into the anti-cyclone being dominant from April-September, equaling warm and… Read more »

Terry Mercer
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Terry Mercer

Gary When you say Our winter is on the line. Is that bad or good and what do you mean by that?

Terry Mercer
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Terry Mercer

Gary I m?eant to ask You in My previous post. You Used the words very exciting and Our winter is on the line. Do you mean very exciting in as a lot of snow or wintry weather For us?