Good Friday afternoon Weather2020 bloggers,
The weather pattern continues to set up as the LRC is evolving right before our eyes. There was some significant blocking at high latitudes that developed earlier in October, and there has been some indication of that coming back around mid-late November. This mornings GFS run did not have blocking at all, but recent runs have had some blocking in around two weeks, so let’s watch it closely. The influence on the weather pattern would be significant, but the LRC is still dominant and how the pattern is cycling and where the main features set-up are essential for making our winter forecast. We are working on this now, and our winter forecast will be out in another three weeks or so.
A hard freeze will be in progress by Saturday morning in many spots, and then this next change will rapidly be approaching by the end of the weekend. A stretched out, positively tilted trough is forecast to extend from southern Canada north of North Dakota, southwest into a weakness in the flow over Colorado, and then southwest to Baja. The northeast to southwest tilt is a positive tilt, and usually would push the precipitation pattern off to the east of Kansas City. However, something interesting has changed since this new LRC evolved from September to current. And, look at the precipitation forecast for Monday evening, with the somewhat tropical connection to Tropical Storm Vance:
So, it appears we are set up for a heavy plains rain event, shifted westward from previous years, and a brand new pattern continues to evolve. Very exciting, and Winter Is On The Line, as I titled this blog. We will go a bit more in-depth into these developments over the weekend. Have a great weekend and I should have the blog updated by Sunday morning at the latest.