Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Well, it has happened. The Kansas City Royals beat the Giants last night to force a game 7 of the 2014 World Series. Yes, tonight is the last night of the 2014 baseball season and either the San Francisco Giants or the Kansas City Royals will be the World Champions. Incredible!
The weather forecast for the game tonight could not be much better for late October. It will be a bit cool, but with almost no pressure gradient there will be almost no wind once again. This is the last day that will be like this for a while as a rather major change is developing across the Northern Hemisphere.
The map above shows the 500 mb flow valid at 7 PM this evening. The 500 mb level is the level we look at to find the storm systems in the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere has no weight, and thus there is 0 mb of pressure, and the surface has a pressure close to 1,000 mb, so the 500 mb level is literally almost exactly half way through the atmosphere in weight. This level has no friction influence from the surface and you can forecast the weather by just looking at this level, if you are a very good forecaster. We use our knowledge of the cycling weather pattern, called Lezak’s Recurring Cycle, to make long range forecasts, and in the past year our forecasts have been accurate at the rate of 76.9%, including 90.9% last winter, our best season of forecasting we have had. We hope to have that level of accuracy again this winter, but for now we have yet to identify all of the features in this developing pattern that we are about to experience for the next year. The entire weather pattern is in a major transition, and there is a strong wave forecast to begin diving southeast over the Rocky Mountains and out into the plains states by tonight.
This change is significant, and a strong trough is going to evolve and snow will be the result in many spots from southern Canada, south through parts of the Great Lakes, and south all the way into Kentucky. This developing storm is just one exhibit for this year’s LRC. Is it a concern that this storm is forming way off to the east? As I said, this is just one part of the overall cycling pattern. Right now, I am obsessed with the World Series! We will go more into this developing pattern later in the week!
Have a great Wednesday! And GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!