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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

A unique weather pattern is setting up, one that I have never seen before. The weather pattern continues to evolve. According to Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC) the weather pattern evolves from August 1st to November 30th, and really shows up between October 1st and November 10th. We are smack down the middle of both of these time periods.  I have seen a few early winter forecasts that come out when the first cold front arrives in September. In my opinion, these forecasts over react to one day, one storm, one index. The early forecasts have unanimously forecasted a brutally cold winter just to grab headlines, again in my opinion.  If you have been following the LRC for years, like a few of you have, then you know that we don’t issue our winter forecast until deeper into November. There is still so much more of this weather pattern to piece together. It is a huge puzzle, and yes we have figured out part of the chaos within this cycling weather pattern. There is organization to the chaos and it is described by the LRC.

AO 2015 Oct 22

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dipped into negative territory in early October, down briefly to a negative four, but it has gone all the way back to neutral, and it is drifting into the positive. When the AO goes deep into negative territory it indicates that there is a higher likelihood of Arctic air shifting south into the United States. When it is positive it is more likely that the Arctic air will be held up north over Canada. This does NOT mean that this will happen every time. Last winter there was very rarely any negative AO or NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation and yet it was a very cold winter. How is that possible? The LRC!  The weather pattern that set up last year was a very cold one with or without any major blocking.  So, let’s not jump to any conclusions this early.

LRC 2015 October 23

There are a lot of other things going on.  El Niño is likely developing during the next three months.  And, right now the jet stream is far to the north allowing for a warm end of October in the Kansas City metro area. Farther west there is a storm system approaching that will likely have an impact on World Series game four Saturday night. There are two main streams of flow aloft that can be seen on today’s 500 mb chart.  There is one stream way up north extending from Alaska east across northern Canada to Greenland. There is no blocking whatsoever and this is likely why the AO and NAO are going into the positive index territory. There is also a second stream, also displaced a bit to the north, but it is dipping off the west coast and then it flows over a big upper level ridge centered over Mexico into Colorado. This is providing the conditions favorable for temperatures to warm to way above average.

The pattern is still evolving.  Hang on for the ride. Some exciting days are ahead of us. For now, Kansas City is still waiting for it’s first freeze with no sign of one in sight as November approaches. We have our 41 Action News Snowflake contest that has started. You can enter by going to www.kshb.com/snowflake. Here is the graphic we are showing on the air:

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Have a great day! And, Go Royals tonight! I titled this blog entry, “Where Is Winter”. Well, we know winter is still just under two months away, and I was just making a point that it is way too early to make that winter forecast, at least according to the best long range weather forecast method known in the field of meteorology today.

Gary

 

 

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

I’m going out on a limb and saying our first inch of snow waits until February! I see huge problems with warm air advection in the storms we do have in this pattern, and no real cold air.

Dobber
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Dobber

Big limb f00dl3

Terry Mercer
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Terry Mercer

Ya a real big limb foodl3. Cold air will be there and I don’t think there will be a problem getting cold air this winter. Don’t cry wolf too early. Just because it’s warm now don’t mean it will have this this time around. I say are first inch of snow will fall in December.

Terry Mercer
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Terry Mercer

I meant to say next time around.

Mike
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Mike

Terry,

First inch of snow in Dec.??? Now that’s a bold prediction!!!

Mike
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Mike

f00dl3, How ya doing? Remember last October and November, we were wondering the same thing. Gary, often asked or commented on where’s the cold air. Then, his first forecast was for average to above average temps for the winter. After the second week of Nov. the cold came and didn’t leave until late May. Look at the snow cover way up North into Canada and Siberia, the snow cover is far more extensive this October then last October. This is the breeding ground for cold air masses and we should see plenty of them this winter down in the lower… Read more »

Dobber
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Dobber

He likes secrets. I bet we get ice. Salt shortage?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m happy to hear no freezes in sight. Not a fan of winter

Baseball Mike
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Good morning Gary—we received 1.70 of precip the other night into the early morning. Do you see a freeze/cold air coming soon? This eighty degree weather is nice but strange for this time of year–I would like a freeze soon and a more normal pattern. Does rain look likely for Monday night? Let’s hope the Royals can win but on the road is always unpredictable. Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Ben
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Ben

When is the average freeze date? Seems like we’ve already passed it.