Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
A unique weather pattern is setting up, one that I have never seen before. The weather pattern continues to evolve. According to Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC) the weather pattern evolves from August 1st to November 30th, and really shows up between October 1st and November 10th. We are smack down the middle of both of these time periods. I have seen a few early winter forecasts that come out when the first cold front arrives in September. In my opinion, these forecasts over react to one day, one storm, one index. The early forecasts have unanimously forecasted a brutally cold winter just to grab headlines, again in my opinion. If you have been following the LRC for years, like a few of you have, then you know that we don’t issue our winter forecast until deeper into November. There is still so much more of this weather pattern to piece together. It is a huge puzzle, and yes we have figured out part of the chaos within this cycling weather pattern. There is organization to the chaos and it is described by the LRC.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dipped into negative territory in early October, down briefly to a negative four, but it has gone all the way back to neutral, and it is drifting into the positive. When the AO goes deep into negative territory it indicates that there is a higher likelihood of Arctic air shifting south into the United States. When it is positive it is more likely that the Arctic air will be held up north over Canada. This does NOT mean that this will happen every time. Last winter there was very rarely any negative AO or NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation and yet it was a very cold winter. How is that possible? The LRC! The weather pattern that set up last year was a very cold one with or without any major blocking. So, let’s not jump to any conclusions this early.
There are a lot of other things going on. El Niño is likely developing during the next three months. And, right now the jet stream is far to the north allowing for a warm end of October in the Kansas City metro area. Farther west there is a storm system approaching that will likely have an impact on World Series game four Saturday night. There are two main streams of flow aloft that can be seen on today’s 500 mb chart. There is one stream way up north extending from Alaska east across northern Canada to Greenland. There is no blocking whatsoever and this is likely why the AO and NAO are going into the positive index territory. There is also a second stream, also displaced a bit to the north, but it is dipping off the west coast and then it flows over a big upper level ridge centered over Mexico into Colorado. This is providing the conditions favorable for temperatures to warm to way above average.
The pattern is still evolving. Hang on for the ride. Some exciting days are ahead of us. For now, Kansas City is still waiting for it’s first freeze with no sign of one in sight as November approaches. We have our 41 Action News Snowflake contest that has started. You can enter by going to www.kshb.com/snowflake. Here is the graphic we are showing on the air:
Have a great day! And, Go Royals tonight! I titled this blog entry, “Where Is Winter”. Well, we know winter is still just under two months away, and I was just making a point that it is way too early to make that winter forecast, at least according to the best long range weather forecast method known in the field of meteorology today.