Good morning bloggers and welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience,
Today, we will look into the next week and the potential for thunderstorm complexes to affect our area. But, we will begin by looking at more beautiful clouds. Last night, when I was on the air tracking the developing thunderstorms, I said that I was in “cloud heaven”. The past few days have been just fascinating in watching the clouds build and grow into these beautiful cumulonimbus types. It became even more incredible on my way out to dinner at 6:45 PM while driving down Wornall Avenue in Kansas City, MO. A huge cumulus congestus cloud was building with the sun in a perfect position to create this shadow on the altocumulus cloud just above the growing cumulus. Take a look at these three pictures, of which I have enhanced using iPhoto on my Mac:
The conditions are again favorable for a few thunderstorms to form this afternoon. I will have my camera handy to take some more pictures. Now, what is going to happen in the next couple of weeks?
The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and we are now going to experience the June version of this weather pattern. In two weeks I will be on my way to Lake Tahoe to present the LRC to the Broadcast Conference of the American Meteorological Society on June 19th. I am currently working on the presentation as I concentrate on the Super Bowl weather forecast and the LRC. We are currently in the part of the weather pattern that cycled through during late January into the first two weeks of February. This is the part of the weather pattern that has produced significant precipitation in the KC viewing area within each cycle and this is why we have been forecasting a wet first half of June for weeks now. We just went through a rather dry May, even though there have been small thunderstorms for over a week now. It just has not been a wet pattern near KC. Could that be about to change?
The weather pattern is reorganizing and cycling into what should end up being wet and stormy during the next week or two. The flow aloft will be strengthening as the jet stream shifts a bit farther south. This will create the conditions for MCS activity, the first of which will be tracking our way Sunday night or early Monday morning. An MCS is a Mesoscale Convective System, or an organized complex of thunderstorms. The latest NAM and GFS models have solutions that would bring one of these MCS’s into our area by early Monday morning. The NAM model is forecasting a 2.5″ bulls eye approaching KC from the west and northwest. The GFS has a lot less. If this system organizes there could be anywhere from 1/2″ to over 3″ of rain from this one complex. There will likely be many other chances of an MCS during the next week to ten days or so. Take a look at this surface set-up for Tuesday:
Both the NAM and the GFS models have similar solutions for Tuesday. And, this will lead to severe thunderstorm initially breaking out in a developing zone north and west of Kansas City. The thunderstorms will likely then organize into an MCS and ride our way. The Kansas City metro area is way overdue for some heavy rain. So, let’s see how this materializes.
Have a great weekend. Sunday is National Cancer Survivors Day and I will be out celebrating with cancer survivors at the Bloch Cancer Survivors Park on the Plaza from noon to 2 PM tomorrow. Come on by and celebrate with us. I am going to be a 15 year bone cancer survivor later this year!