The Stormy Part Of The Weather Pattern Is Coming

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Good morning Weather2020.com bloggers,

The weather pattern will become much more favorable for severe thunderstorms after a rather quiet period.  The jet stream will be dipping south next week and we are moving into the part of the cycling weather pattern that has produced some of the biggest United States storm systems this season.  Before we get to the southward moving late season jet stream there will be a tropical flow of air spreading northwest that will lead to more rain showers and thunderstorms during  the next two to three days.

Kansas City Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Cumulus clouds growing into thunderstorms later this morning through this evening. The chance of rain in your backyard will go up between now and Saturday morning. High:  86°
  • Tonight:  Lingering evening thunderstorms, and then dry for a few hours.  Low:  66°
  • Friday:  The showers and thunderstorms will become a bit more numerous with clouds again building up.  High:  84°
  • Saturday:  The thunderstorms become less numerous again.  There will still be a few heavy downpours. High:  84°

There will be risks of severe thunderstorms next week over Tornado Alley, and some high rainfall amounts are also likely which would lead to flooding.  Kansas City may be on the edge of these risks and high rainfall totals, so hopefully we will get some heavy downpours in the next two days of the tropical flow.  Here is one possible set up for next week:

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A front is likely going to make it down into southern Nebraska and to near the Iowa/Missouri border next week, but it may stall right there. This would likely lead to tremendous amounts of rain just north and northeast of Kansas City. I will not be shocked if there is a tremendous rain shadow over an area just southwest of a flooding rain zone.  Kansas City could be near that area.  So, as I said around ten days ago, I am distrustful and wary (which is the definition of “gun shy”) of this rainfall forecast.  I am forecasting 10 inches of rain near that zone on this map, but where will the southwest cut-off end up being located?

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Thank you so much for joining in the LRC Forecast Experience. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

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Dobber
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Dobber

The cloud you showed a picture of Gary…. Was it east of town over independence/ blue springs? They got a nice shower a little bit ago

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Some showers moving into the south side of metro right now?

sam hill
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sam hill

Well that rainfall map just did us in. How many times have you shown the rainfall forecast map showing 3 inches of rain or more and we get .02 out of it?

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Hope your right on rain. Looks like Maryville will get some good moisture. Plus tell your co-worker I thoroughly enjoyed the spelling bee last night! 🙂

Dobber
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Dobber

I like the term gun shy. I damn sure would be to at this point. Bad luck around here