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Good morning Weather2020.com Bloggers,

The LRC is moving through cycle 5 of this this year’s weather pattern that began way back in early October.  The jet stream did retreat north in each cycle right before this part of the pattern, and in this late May version of the LRC the jet stream has not started moving back south, but it will shift south a bit in the next week, which will lead to an increasing chance of severe weather. So, the storm chasers should get some decent chases in during the next couple of weeks before summer settles in.

There may be a few more isolated thunderstorms around the Kansas City viewing area today, but not quite as many as yesterday. There is almost no flow aloft, so if one does not form almost right over you there is very little chance of any rain.  The chance is 20% at best today, but there will be a better chance by Thursday or Friday.  Here is a look at one of them from yesterday afternoon that dumped almost an inch of rain just southeast of downtown Kansas City:

3

The upper low that just tracked across Texas and Oklahoma was caught underneath a retreating jet stream, and this is why it moved so slowly and was not involved with the main jet stream. This was part of the weather pattern in each of the other cycles as well. In October an upper low also got caught south of the retreating jet stream, but then the jet dropped far enough south to kick out that upper low.   This time, the jet just wasn’t strong enough as summer is now approaching. The jet stream is likely going to dip back south, just a couple of days too late to pick up the upper low and this should lead to increasing chances of thunderstorms in the next ten to fifteen days.

LRC C5 GFS 114 June 1A series of storm systems will be dropping into the western states and ejecting out into the plains. The jet stream, which retreated northward, will begin shifting south again during this next week.  The LRC continues to cycle at somewhere between 55 and 61 days, and most often between 56 and 58 days.  This cycle seems to be stretching slightly to around 59 or 60 days, but it depends on what cycle you look at. This map on the left compares ridiculously well with the first cycle of this year’s weather pattern.

Take a look at this map from LRC Cycle 1 on October 14th, or 230 days before June 1st:

LRC C1 Oct14

So many features line up and this is a good indication that there will be severe weather risks during the next two weeks and a lot of rain somewhere.  Kansas City is due, and beginning to run out of time as summer is just three weeks away.

Have a great day!

Gary Lezak

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sam hill
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sam hill

Gary I’m intrigued by the jet stream issue. You say that the jet stream should retreat south in the next week. How do you know that? Is it from model data or another source? With this being said how can you make long range forecast if the jet stream “acts” up? Can the LRC predict the jet stream positioning?

chris
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chris

Not raining here south of lawrence yet but i can see it coming..we just have very high winds and some wicked cloud formations

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Heavy Rain in prairie village right now!

Kathy
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Kathy

Your blog today sounded a bit more positive for rain than in previous posts. I am encouraged. We are not one of those lucky spots which got any rain and we are now watering our lawn. We could see showers off in the distance, but they just sat there, dumping rain. Now I understand why they weren’t moving. Thanks for the explanation.

gwh64063
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gwh64063

I’m really looking forward to the return of NW flow aloft in June bringing cold fronts and rain chances to KC. We certainly need the rain, though not as bad as KS, OK and TX.