Hurricane Amanda & The Holiday Forecast

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Good morning Weather2020 Bloggers,

There is a rare early major hurricane in the Pacific Ocean.  Hurricane Amanda fired on Thursday, and it is the first hurricane of the eastern Pacific hurricane season.  There is no real threat to land as this hurricane will likely weaken as it turns and drifts north.  Amanda became a Category 4 storm this morning on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the second strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific behind 2001’s Hurricane Adolf.

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Here is a closer up look at Amanda as of 7 AM this morning:

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While Amanda spins over the Pacific Ocean we have our own spinning storm over the southwestern United States. It was centered near the Colorado/New Mexico border this morning and it is still slowly moving towards the plains. This system has been helping produce the conditions for heavy rain over the most drouth stricken areas to our west, but it has not helped produce heavy thunderstorms in our part of the world over eastern Kansas and western Missouri yet:

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The upper low will maintain it’s strength into Monday and then it will weaken and likely start drifting away from the central plains.  The atmosphere should become more unstable this afternoon and there is apparently a southern Kansas disturbance rotating around the main storm this morning and this will likely track into eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening. We will have to see if any heavier thunderstorms develop. And, there will be another slightly stronger disturbance approaching us on Memorial Day which will likely produce a good chance of rain and thunderstorms sometime Monday, possibly early in the day, and then again later in the day if the atmosphere can destabilize.

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The ridge aloft will briefly shift to the east today, as you can see above in the 582 dm line. That ridge shifts to over the Mississippi River and this should place eastern Kansas in a more favorable position.  There are two main jet streams and they are both way up to the north.  One of the streams can be seen in the five lines over northern Canada. Remember, the closer the lines are together the stronger the winds are, and this is how you can see where the jet stream may be located.  One of those streams is in northern Canada, and the other one has strengthened around the upper low in the Pacific Northwest.  The farther north jet streams have helped completely halt severe weather season.  The jet stream will likely drop a bit farther south into the Rocky Mountains and northern plains states within a weak bringing an increased risk of severe weather over the northern plains and sneaking down into Nebraska by around a week from now.

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The upper low will be weakening by Tuesday and drifting southeast. Often at this time of the year we can start to see why we have been so dry or wet in the past year. And, with us being in a dry weather pattern still to this date we can see a hint as to why.  This upper low dropped into the southwest, meandered around and drifted east, then it started drifting northeast right towards Kansas City, but now it is expected to track southeast again. This is a symptom of what likely was going on in the big picture during the winter and early spring and one of the reasons for our are not getting many wide spread rain events.

Let’s see how this sets up in the next couple of days.  Please let us know if you have any questions or comments on this weather pattern.

Gary

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Blake
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Blake

Gary, hope you are having a great weekend. Just signed up as a blog subscriber. Looking forward to when us DROID users also have access to the app and the LRC forecasts before the next road trip.Thank you.

Christine
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Christine

I remember seeing a significant chance of severe weather for this coming Thursday. Have your thoughts changed on that now?