Moving Back Into The More Active Part Of This Cycling Pattern

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Good morning Weather2020 fans,

Spring officially started with the Vernal Equinox Thursday and the battle of the seasons is strong.  Winter has been winning most of the battles, but as we move into April spring will begin winning more often. This means that severe weather season is about to really get started in the next couple of weeks. There  have a been a few winter severe weather events, but overall it has been pretty quiet with so much cold air overwhelming the weather pattern.

1Back in the second cycle of this year’s LRC an “inside slider” was diving south inland over the Pacific northwest on December 7th.  Dr. George Fishbeck, many years ago in the 1970s, would call these storm systems inside sliders when he was the ABC weatherman in Los Angeles where I grew up.  This has been the main type of western storm this season and one of the reasons why it was another very dry winter over California.  Most of the storm systems would come inland before going through a transition and then intensifying as they tracked into the Great Lakes and into the eastern states.

2The models have been all over the place with major errors, but occasionally there is a model that even at 13 days out that has a solution that makes sense, or fits what we know it will likely look like. This second map shows the 312 hour forecast from the 06z GFS model run.  And, if you compare it to the map on the left you can see how they have very similar features. The map on the right is a forecast that would be valid on April 4th, or 117 days after December 7th. We have been describing a 56 to 58 day cycle and this would be 58.5 days times two, so most likely when we get to 312 hours from now this will set up a day or two earlier than this forecast map. But, either way, it does have and shows a solution that does “fit” the weather pattern, so we can look at this forecast as a possible solution for that time frame of April 2nd to 5th range.

The weather pattern is about to become more active and severe weather set-ups and late winter storm systems will be likely in the next three weeks as the battle of the seasons becomes more ferocious.

Have a great weekend and we will discuss this a bit more soon.

Gary Lezak

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Dobber
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Dobber

Why the heck was I moderated?

HeatMlser
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HeatMlser

Then don’t come back to KC. This sucks.

What you’re not hearing is that winter is the new norm around here. Consider this, and the past few. There is no spring. There is no fall. There are just horrific, never-ending winters, which are negated by horrific, scorching summers.

This place blows, and people like Lezak being winter freaks only make it worse.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Yeah wont be long until
The humidity bombs arrive making it miserable.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I am still in Florida on spring break with the kids – don’t want to come back to snow!!

Joe in OP
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Joe in OP

Yes, a totally unexpected mini snow storm.

Nick St. Joe
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Nick St. Joe

Right now, snowing lightly here even a thin dusting!

blue flash
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blue flash

April 4 being the home opener for the Royals, that looks like a decently warm weather pattern, correct?

stjoeattorney
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stjoeattorney

Gary NWS is calling for 1-2 inches of snow Monday. Is that going to occur?

I WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER BIG SNOW INSTEAD OF SEVERE WEATHER.

Dobber
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Dobber

Nice write up lezak