Good morning Weather2020 fans,
Spring officially started with the Vernal Equinox Thursday and the battle of the seasons is strong. Winter has been winning most of the battles, but as we move into April spring will begin winning more often. This means that severe weather season is about to really get started in the next couple of weeks. There have a been a few winter severe weather events, but overall it has been pretty quiet with so much cold air overwhelming the weather pattern.
Back in the second cycle of this year’s LRC an “inside slider” was diving south inland over the Pacific northwest on December 7th. Dr. George Fishbeck, many years ago in the 1970s, would call these storm systems inside sliders when he was the ABC weatherman in Los Angeles where I grew up. This has been the main type of western storm this season and one of the reasons why it was another very dry winter over California. Most of the storm systems would come inland before going through a transition and then intensifying as they tracked into the Great Lakes and into the eastern states.
The models have been all over the place with major errors, but occasionally there is a model that even at 13 days out that has a solution that makes sense, or fits what we know it will likely look like. This second map shows the 312 hour forecast from the 06z GFS model run. And, if you compare it to the map on the left you can see how they have very similar features. The map on the right is a forecast that would be valid on April 4th, or 117 days after December 7th. We have been describing a 56 to 58 day cycle and this would be 58.5 days times two, so most likely when we get to 312 hours from now this will set up a day or two earlier than this forecast map. But, either way, it does have and shows a solution that does “fit” the weather pattern, so we can look at this forecast as a possible solution for that time frame of April 2nd to 5th range.
The weather pattern is about to become more active and severe weather set-ups and late winter storm systems will be likely in the next three weeks as the battle of the seasons becomes more ferocious.
Have a great weekend and we will discuss this a bit more soon.