We hope everyone is having a great weekend,
Long Range Forecast Of The Week:
Late Cold Outbreak likely near the end of the month into the first week of April! This has been in the forecast for 100 days already! This will impact the opening week of Major League Baseball! It’s the part of the weather pattern that produced the brief warm-up on Super Bowl Sunday across the east, and this will happen again, but it will be followed up by an Arctic blast! A storm is going to move across the Pacific Northwest coast. We are currently near the end of the third cycle of this year’s LRC, and we will be moving into the fourth cycle soon as the Super Bowl part of the weather pattern cycles back through in a few weeks.
But, first, we have this next storm system that is caught in the part of the weather pattern that has produced a severe weather outbreak (November 16th, 17th), a thunderstorm event days after it was 20 below zero in January, and now this next set up. What will happen this time? A big warm-up will again happen ahead of this storm system that is right on schedule according to the LRC. Weather 2020 has had this storm in the forecast for 100 days now pegged for this week centered around March 11th. Here is a screen shot from the Weather 2020 app:
The Weather2020 app is the only place in the world where you can get a weather forecast like this one. The temperatures are the averages for that week, not a forecast. Weather2020 won’t be 100% accurate, but this winter the accuracy has been between 80 and 90%. By the end of the year I am certain we will be in the 60 to 70% range. The 15 to 100 day forecasts will be as accurate as any seven day forecast is today! Now, let’s see what happens this week before this forecast can be counted on as accurate. A storm is going to be crossing the west coast and then it will go through a transition that has been happening with most storm systems this season. This first map shows the 500 mb forecast as we are moving into March 11th. This is a forecast map valid at 06z on March 11th, or 1 AM central time:
If you go back 57 to 58 days into the last cycle on January 12th we can see a very similar pattern and right on schedule. As this trough dropped into the west a huge warm-up occurred as we watched a major Arctic air mass get forced out, and thunderstorms were the result on top of snow in the Great Lakes states.
Let’s go back to LRC Cycle 1 as a severe weather outbreak was about to take place through the Mississippi River Valley between November 16th and 17th. This is the 500 mb flow on November 16th, or 57 days before January’s version of this storm, and 114 days before the March version that is about to happen now.
Kansas City is about to have it’s first 70 degree day since November 16th, and right on schedule, or exactly two cycles ago, 114 days before Monday. This storm will impact areas east of Kansas City all the way to the east coast. We will be looking ahead into the fourth LRC cycle soon. The Super Bowl part of the weather pattern is about to return later this month.