The Next Storm in LRC Cycle 3

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We hope everyone is having a great weekend,

Long Range Forecast Of The Week:  

Late Cold Outbreak likely near the end of the month into the first week of April!  This has been in the forecast for 100 days already! This will impact the opening week of Major League Baseball! It’s the part of the weather pattern that produced the brief warm-up on Super Bowl Sunday across the east, and this will happen again, but it will be followed up by an Arctic blast! A storm is going to move across the Pacific Northwest coast.  We are currently near the end of the third cycle of this year’s LRC, and we will be moving into the fourth cycle soon as the Super Bowl part of the weather pattern cycles back through in a few weeks.

But, first, we have this next storm system that is caught in the part of the weather pattern that has produced a severe weather outbreak (November 16th, 17th), a thunderstorm event days after it was 20 below zero in January, and now this next set up.  What will happen this time?  A big warm-up will again happen ahead of this storm system that is right on schedule according to the LRC. Weather 2020 has had this storm in the forecast for 100 days now pegged for this week centered around March 11th.  Here is a screen shot from the Weather 2020 app:

Accurate Forecast March 10th week

The Weather2020 app is the only place in the world where you can get a weather forecast like this one. The temperatures are the averages for that week, not a forecast. Weather2020 won’t be 100% accurate, but this winter the accuracy has been between 80 and 90%.  By the end of the year I am certain we will be in the 60 to 70% range.  The 15 to 100 day forecasts will be as accurate as any seven day forecast is today!  Now, let’s see what happens this week before this forecast can be counted on as accurate. A storm is going to be crossing the west coast and then it will go through a transition that has been happening with most storm systems this season.  This first map shows the 500 mb forecast as we are moving into March 11th.  This is a forecast map valid at 06z on March 11th, or 1 AM central time: 1

If you go back 57 to 58 days into the last cycle on January 12th we can see a very similar pattern and right on schedule. As this trough dropped into the west a huge warm-up occurred as we watched a major Arctic air mass get forced out, and thunderstorms were the result on top of snow in the Great Lakes states.

3

Let’s go back to LRC Cycle 1 as a severe weather outbreak was about to take place through the Mississippi River Valley between November 16th and 17th. This is the 500 mb flow on November 16th, or 57 days before January’s version of this storm, and 114 days before the March version that is about to happen now.

2

Kansas City is about to have it’s first 70 degree day since November 16th, and right on schedule, or exactly two cycles ago, 114 days before Monday. This storm will impact areas east of Kansas City all the way to the east coast.  We will be looking ahead into the fourth LRC cycle soon. The Super Bowl part of the weather pattern is about to return later this month.

Gary Lezak

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Nick St. Joe
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Nick St. Joe

It will be Interesting to watch the radar in that version when the time comes, one of the calling cards of this years pattern is the strong surface high pressure generating “positively” tilted dips that the Jet stream does when it sends systems from the northwest, they have been responsible for the arctic blasts, but even occur with out them like with this system coming for Tuesday/Wed. really have been lucky with “Tornado” season over the past two years with the NWS office only issuing 7 tornado warnings in the past two years for the KC coverage area!! It will… Read more »

Nick St. Joe
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Nick St. Joe

Im glad it was weak then, because it almost looked “funnel shaped at one time” I just told my buddy that if we saw any power flashes below it to get out of there as fast as possible, but it was a unigue experience 😀 I was betting on the fact that it was “November” and cool enough that the storm wouldn’t go tornadic, glad it wasnt 10F warmer or so 😛

Nick St. Joe
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Nick St. Joe

It will be interesting to see what this next storm does, I remember the November version, and it actually started the severe weather outbreak right over St. Joe, me and a buddy of mine went up to king hill up here and watched that cell come in, it had a feature that looked like a wall cloud, but there was no tornado warning for it, but a few days later another KC weather blog had someone that took a pic of the same cloud formation from Iatan(it was well to the north of them, but passed right over me) and… Read more »

Alice
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Alice

Gary,
Really enjoyed this “lesson” about the LRC ! Thank you ! I gain more respect for it..and for you each time that you put out these comparison charts. It is really fascinating ! You would make an excellent teacher Gary.

Now, one question.. Are there always 4 cycles in each years’ LRC ? Or does the number of cycles vary from year to year.
Thanks Gary