Warming Up

Good morning,

We are expecting a big warm-up into the 50s and possibly near 60 degrees on Sunday!  Temperatures were below average for the first nine days of 2014, and that streak ended yesterday with temperatures slightly above average.  The trend is up for a couple of days.  The Arctic air has retreated way up into northern Canada, and the next cold front will come through Sunday night with Pacific air flowing over the Rocky Mountains and  across the USA.

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I just read through all of yesterday’s comments and found this one from Courtney in Overland Park.  She is looking back to that March 12th huge severe weather day in our region:

What a fascinating/horrifying day…On 12 March 2006 (as he was preparing to host a telethon at a pet store :-) ) , Gary wrote about the warm front in his first blog entry, and that there was some uncertainty over the extent of its northern movement relative to the storm initiation window for our area. He wrote that if it DID go sufficiently north, we would have a serious problem by early afternoon. That statement became an understatement for the souls residing in east central KS and west central/southern MO. It was cool and dreary that morning and though there had been an early storm that produced a microburst and/or a tornado in Lawrence, it did not *feel* like an *all hell breaking loose* type of severe weather day ( to me anyway), and that obviously turned out to be a *very wrong* assumption! By 1 p.m. we were in a PDS tornado watch with a clearing sky and rapidly rising temps. Around 4p.m., the radar began to look surreal…almost like a loop as supercells formed repeatedly (more or less) in the same area where the dryline had stalled and bulged. They would then make a beeline in from the southwest along roughly the same path as their predecessors without becoming linear…and the cycle continued well into the evening hours. Wow, I didn’t mean to ramble on THAT much! I’m sure most remember that event as crazy as it was. I have lived here since birth – nearly forty years now – and that day definitely stands out…not so much for the intensity of the event itself but rather the prolonged and persistent nature of said intensity. We primarily get two severe weather set-ups; the one storm hit and run usually associated with a passing cold front, and the one-two punch set-up with plenty of time in between our same day storms for the atmosphere to “reload”. I believe that Gary said some of the contributing factors to the Mar. 12th outbreak were: there was no cap, the dryline stalled and “bulged”, and the upper air dynamics were such that the storms could maintain their number and strength well into the night. On a side note, I think it was about two weeks after this outbreak that we were supposed to get a mammoth snowstorm…only it pulled one of it’s usual KC tricks and tracked further north than forecasted at the last minute…and then we got to hear about the town in southeast Neb. that got 23″ from “our” storm afterwards. All of this fascinates me so much I swear I could go on and on and on…and boy did I ever with this one. Thanks for reading if you made it this far! :-)

Courtney in downtown OP

Thank you Courtney for your long comment. It was a very difficult day, on a Sunday.  Windy the weather dog at 16 years old was arriving to be on the Pet Telethon. That was a long duration severe weather day.  And, yes I remember that hugs snow storm tracking just northwest of us two weeks later.

I am flying back to KC later today and we are looking forward to the warmer temperatures.  Have a great we will look ahead in tomorrow’s blog.

 

Gary

29 Comments

  1. I think we will have an active severe wx season. Storms will continue to explode east of us. However, I think we are more than past due. I’m rarely in kc for the wx excitement, yet I follow the models and blog religiously in hopes of keeping my family safe from from afar

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  2. Hanging on to last years pattern in February as our only real hopes of big snow event coming our way if not then go ahead and let spring get underway cause I highly dislike cold events without snow!!

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  3. I remember that March and the snowstorm that missed us, I still remember the sleet with 40+ mph winds. I remember the bands of sleet on radar looking like bands of storms, the wind was so strong it almost felt like a severe weather event to me. I was going to college at the time and the wind was pulling open and then slamming shut the enterence doors to the buildings.

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  4. Zonal flow for the foreseeable future!

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  5. We still have a lot of winter left Phil. still too much winter to be calling it too early little bit of blocking or something like that and we get snowstorms just like we did last year then in February it ain’t over till it’s over. just like gary said. End of January into February will be a stormy exciting weather pattern. first you have to get through winter first.

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    • I think it will be stil be a snowy winter come the second half of winter. Has been a pretty good winter so far.

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    • You mean ed right? I mean mu, err sportsfreaked, the list goes on and on.

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  6. I am amazed at how some comments get ample attention and others are poo pooed.

    There was talk of a storm being here the 11th to 14th and Mike comes on here (Mowermike I’m sure from his undying support for the LRC) and says it’s going on now??? just east of KC??? Really? That was 2 days ago. It’s the 11th today and the storm is nearly off the east coast. I find your “shoehorn” analysis (making it fit) ridiculous. Can I say that on this blog? Or do I hurt someone’s feelings? How can you predict a storm for Jan 11-14, it doesn’t happen, and then it “fits the LRC”?

    Also, the idea of peer review gets attacked? What is that about Gary? You know full well as a scientist that peer review is THE STANDARD!! Yet, you tell Seds essentially that peer review is moot? That you made a 30 page report and “let some people look at it”? That’s not peer review man! Good luck with the Grass Roots approach to the LRC buy-in. You will NEVER get the scientific community to see you as any more than a marketing opportunist.

    Stepping off the soapbox……..

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    • Pete,

      Why can’t I state my opinions without the undying critisism from you. All I was stating was that he did not think that a storm would happen around the 18th and that the LRC forecasted one between the 10th and the 17th. Here it is again, from the Dec. 31st post.

      “Long Range Weather Forecast: Strong Storm between January 10th and 17th:

      There has been some weather chatter about a storm around the 18th of January. Looking at the LRC we see a very strong storm tracking across the United States before that date, and more likely around the 11th to 14th.”

      Well, didn’t a strong storm just happen yesterday on the 10th of Jan.?(wasn’t 2 days ago as you stated) YES it did. KC was on the NW side of the storm and 1″+ rains fell in MO. That’s a strong storm for Jan. There is not a strong storm in the forecast for Jan. 18th. So, everything said above from the Dec. 31st post happened. I’m not defending Gary at all, I’m stating my opinion on how that forecast verified. I’m not making anything fit, I’m stating the facts from the above post on Dec. 31st. He used is forecasting tool to predict a strong storm prior to the 18th. You’re not hurting anyone’s feelings, you state your opinions and I state mine. That’s called discussion or debate.

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      • “I am amazed at how some comments get ample attention and others are poo pooed”

        That’s not true at all. I guess we could ask the same about you? Why aren’t you on here when a LRC long range forecast verifies from weeks out?

        Pete, I know there are flaws and it certainly isn’t always accurate, but what is in life?

        If a forecast could tell you what the pattern will be like a month out, and it comes close to within a few days, you wouldn’t call that an accurate forecast?

        Example:

        The LRC is forecasting the return of arctic air and stormier conditions for late this month into the first half of Feb. It’s been doing so since late Dec.. for KC and the surrounding areas. Now, many would say, I can predict that, it’s winter! Sure, but why didn’t the LRC predict the same for mid Jan.? It could happen then too? Well, the LRC didn’t predict cold and snowy conditions for mid Jan. It predicted a rather extensive warming trend and that is what is going on. This same zonal flow happend in Nov. and it is now returning. Cycling weather pattern.

        Thoughts??

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  7. Phil,

    Yet again, not true.

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  8. If memory serves me correctly, isn’t the average period between stronger storm systems in the lower 48 during fall, winter and spring about a week? Making a claim that X week will have a strong storm system has at least a 70% shot at panning out to be true between October 15th and May 15th. Even in zonal flow once the jet stream shifts far enough south.

    There’s a pretty storm system out west right now producing 2 feet of snow in the Idaho and Wyoming western slopes of the rockies, and 60 MPH gusts in the foothills. That’s a pretty strong storm – it must fit the LRC.

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    • Phil,

      Once again that is not a true fact. He has never claimed that a forecast verified when it hit 200 miles away. Still, you can’t carry on a constructive conversation. When you can, I will be more than happy to discuss.

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    • f00dl3.

      The storm was predcited to affect KC and sorrounding areas. You know that. The LRC didn’t predcit a strong storm for the USA and than claim accuracy. You know that the prediction was for us here in the plains.

      Hopefully you were being silly.

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  9. will you grown up adults STOP arguing over an issue that is an opinion only type of deal!!! First for those who are constantly attacking gary Lezak, go make your own forecast and compare it with his before you judge him. Unless you know what forecasting is like and have many years of experience in the unique challenges of it, you have no business in judging or being critical or being rude.
    Second, for you supporters, I applaud you. Gary may very well be on the verge of a great discover, Continue to uplift him and encourage him. Some day he may look back and say, it’s those bloggers that were positive about my theory that helped me get through and make this discovery. Positive reinforcement is key in helping individuals succeed in life.
    To Gary Lezak: keep up the good work in your theory, I am excited and eager to see what the next chapter in your LRC theory is going to be. God bless

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    • Thank you Austin,

      And, I am just catching up on today’s discussion. It is all fine, as long as we don’t personally attack anyone. Now, when it comes to the storm that I predicted between the 10th and 17th, most likely 11th to 14th, as Mike stated, it did happen! And, KC had snow and brutal cold! The Arctic Air Warning verified. Remember, the general consensus from meteorologists is that you can’t forecast the weather with any accuracy beyond around five days. And, we know that we have shown that it can be done, is being done, but they aren’t all perfect forecasts. Our long range forecasts on the order of 15 to 100 days into the future are as accurate as a five or seven day forecast is anywhere else. When we get one wrong, well that’s one that’s wrong. My goodness.

      And Austin I really appreciate the support. We are moving forward. It will be shown to exist and it will be peer reviewed some day, because it is there. Many of you can see it. And, in January it becomes even more obvious. I can now look at the GFS and “know” when it’s right and when it’s wrong. Amazing, and we believe that the LRC, the cycling pattern, is on target around 80 to 90% of the time, but the forecasts based on it may be more on the order of around 60% IF we do really well.

      Gary

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  10. That’s where the issue lies with a lot of folks, there seems to be a lot of “wiggle” room with the LRC, timing, location, etc. And when a “strong” storm was talked about between the 10th and 17th most people didn’t interpret that as being .75″ of rain in Springfield or St. Louis.

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  11. EMAW,

    Very true. I wan’t defending that. His forecast for KC with this last storm might have been wrong. I’m not sure what the actual forecast was from weeks ago. I was talking about the other outlet that was predciting a storm around the 18th and Gary stated this using the LRC.

    “Long Range Weather Forecast: Strong Storm between January 10th and 17th:

    There has been some weather chatter about a storm around the 18th of January. Looking at the LRC we see a very strong storm tracking across the United States before that date, and more likely around the 11th to 14th.”

    Yes, he said more “likely” the 11th-14th, the storm happened on the 10th. 1 day off. We were in the storm yesterday, fog. drizzle, a few showers, but the impacts where very minor for us. The bigger impacts were east of here. It was still a strong storm. The above statement from Dec. 31st is all that I am talking about.

    BTW, I know this is your weather! Zonal flow baby!! Too bad our Chiefs aren’t playing tonight or tomorrow. Bummer.

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  12. Mike,
    Yes, I always love zonal flow in January!
    As far as the Chiefs . . . I can’t go there as this is a family friendly blog, spring training countdown is on baby!

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    • EMAW,

      Too funny!!
      I know what your’re saying…our words about that wouldn’t not be good for this blog. I don’t know if I will ever get over that. 38-10!!!

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  13. Mike, what’s the rest of the winter look like to you?

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  14. Gary:
    Good evening to you sir!! Hope you are having safe travels back and that you had some very good quality time with your mom!!!!

    Well as invariably happens my true day job has thrown my weather hobby on the far back burner….posting will be very sparse if not nonexistent as the reality of teaching smacks me in the forehead!!!! Figure may as well go with a bang…..crack…ahhhh….noise as this post will be the limb really breaking!!!!! But here it goes….

    1. Gary’s record as a meteorologist in Kansas City and as a member of this community stands for itself……nothing else needs to be said…..

    2. I’m going to let the LRC stand on its own two feet and throw out some random observations about the next weeks:

    3. Looking back at mid -November, the pattern was zonal and there was some ridging in the interior west of the United States just as the models are now indicating. There were countless posts on how this pattern could go zonal for the entire winter…the GFS is zonal for the next 16 days….this winter looks to be like 2011-2012 without the moisture…then the first part of the cycle began to cycle back for round 2…..

    4. I would expect the GFS to show zonal and for the most part warmish for the next 10-12 days….that is the part of the LRC we are in….furthermore…the models in the longer range can get stuck in the prevalent pattern and only show glimpses of a change. In late December they had us pretty cold through this weekend and it took them some time to catch onto this “zonal” pattern

    5. If you look at the PNA and AO, both are forecasted by the ensembles to either trend negative or neutral from the positive they are now….beginning around the 20-24th of January…just as they began to do in mid to late November…especially the PNA

    6. Both the 12Z and 0Z GFS have begun to show glimpses of the change…at 240 hours on the 12Z the ridge begins to build over the Pacific and there is even an inside slider coming down the interior of California….yes on a different run the ridge was more over the interior west but the ridge is there….there are glimpse in the longer range models of the later November pattern showing up beginning around the 25th of January

    7. The exact details of how this will translate at the surface are still blurry….honestly the chances of us seeing any kind of cold like we saw in late December is probably extremely small if there is any chance at all….there is and will still be -30-40 degree air over the Territories but the chances of say lakes freezing up for a second time for a 2-3 week period are slim to none and slim probably left town. However, I would say that from say January 25th-February 15th we have a good shot at 2-3 stretches of 3-4 days of below normal temps with a chance or two of a good snow storm or maybe even an ice storm. I would also bet that late March and early April will be chilly and damp with maybe a later than average freeze….

    The limb has for sure just broke……as always…I am a history teacher playing a weather hobbyist….playing a weather guru….playing a ….(cue the Tropic Thunder…) so much of this must be taken with a huge grain of salt!!!

    I do 100% think that the LRC is a fantastic tool in the meteorologists tool kit…I have seen it be used as such countless times over the past 7 years. I also know that nobody wants to write this up for a peer review more than Gary and know that that day will come. Until then…I am just glad he chooses to share the ideas and and listens to critiques and discussions on this board and that people give those critiques mostly in a respectful manner….

    Have a great night everybody…….time to analyze an article on Ethnofederalism!!!!!

    Bill in Lawrence

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    • Sounds like you have an exciting Saturday night!

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    • Thanks for sharing Bill in Lawrence. I always enjoy your posts.

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  15. Bill = True gentleman!

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  16. We’ve had a couple of decent snows in Lawrence already. More will come I’m sure. Tornado chasing in our area is still several months away…tornado chasing will have to wait until April at least…better luck then.

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  17. I am aware there was a storm, but I wouldn’t say it was a strong storm, certainly not memorable. It’s just sad that man can’t control the storm track because other areas could have used a good soaking rain instead of the places that got the rain

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  18. This blog is starting to become like the other one. People can disagree if they want, but the same trolls with the same boring stuff being repeated constantly come on here without making their point professionally. They just like to use adjectives to talk about certain people. Same people, new screen names. They don’t even use different material than in the past, which makes the point of them changing their screen names hilarious and proof that the only intent is to cause trouble, not offer up any real constructive criticism.

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    • And, there is a no tolerance policy. Constructive criticism is fine, but the same questions over and over, even when they are answered is unacceptable. Hang in there, this blog will not tolerate any of these attacks.

      Gary

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