No Snow On The Super Bowl!

Good morning bloggers and welcome to Weather2020,

Weather2020 put out a press release earlier this week for the Superbowl weather forecast:  NO CHANCE OF SNOW on the Superbowl.  Here is the link:  No Snow On Super Bowl Press Release.  Here is an excerpt from the release:

No snow will impact Super Bowl XLVIII at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N. J. on Feb. 2, 2014 as forecasted by Weather 2020, a newly launched mobile app based on Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC), a revolutionary weather forecasting technology created by Gary Lezak, a seasoned weather expert and current chief meteorologist at Kansas City’s 41 Action News. The one-of-a-kind app provides weather forecasts up to 12 weeks in advance. Weather 2020’s forecast deflates the official forecast from “The Old Farmers’ Almanac,” the 196-year-old reference guide that has become known for its long-range weather predictions, which is forecasting bitter cold and possible snow. “The Farmers’ Almanac’s” predicted forecast has even compelled the NFL to compile contingency plans that include rescheduling the Super Bowl for either the Saturday before or the Monday or Tuesday after Feb. 2. While these preparations are rational based on “The Farmers’ Almanac’s” forecast, Weather 2020, based on the LRC, has forecasted nearly a zero percent of snow on Super Bowl Sunday. Weather 2020 has also forecasted the possibility of rain days before Feb. 2, but with forecasted temperatures reaching as high as into the 50’s, the precipitation will not result in snow.

Let’s take a look at the pattern that cycled through at the end of LRC Cycle 1 and the beginning of LRC Cycle 2.  The part of the pattern that will be cycling back through occurred around 55 to 61 days ago in the last cycle.  When you look at this pattern the east coast had one system passing by around December 3rd as you can see on this first 500 mb map below.  But the pattern was dominated by southwest flow the rest of that week.  Take a look at the maps, and you can click on them for a larger view:

LRC C2 Dec 3

The map above shows the 500 flow on December 3rd, and the map below shows the flow on December 4th.  The cycling weather pattern has been close to 57 or 58 days, but it could be anywhere in the range of 55 to 61.  So, these next 7 maps could all be close to how the pattern will be setting up on Superbowl Sunday.

LRC C2 Dec 4

Between December 4th and 5th another Polor Vortex was dropping south to near the USA/Canada border, as you can see below, on December 5th map, this will likely happen a few days before Superbowl Sunday.  There is a little ridge on the east coast at this time:

LRC C2 Dec 5

By December 6th, the vortex lifted northeast into eastern Canada with a new trough digging south across the Pacific Northwest.  This little ridge and the northward moving vortex will likely return right around Super Bowl Sunday allowing for warmer air to be drawn in.

LRC C2 Dec 6

This next map below shows a strong storm forming over the Pacific Northwest near Seattle, WA.  This places the east coast in a long fetch of southwesterly flow:

LRC C2 Dec 7

And, by December 8th, another Polar Vortex is dropping south across Canada.  The east coast continues to be in southwest flow aloft, which can produce snow if there is a cold air mass in place.

LRC C2 Dec 8

 And, on December 9th a very cold weather pattern became firmly established over the United States, but the east coast was still in higher heights.

LRC C2 Dec 9

I just showed the seven day stretch that will likely cycle back through in LRC Cycle 3, right around the Superbowl. There was an impacting snowstorm in the last cycle, with that part of the pattern returning a day or two after the Super Bowl, so we will be paying close attention to exactly how the surface pattern sets up. Do you remember the Philalelphia snowstorm during the NFL football game on December 8, 2013?  The Detroit Lions were in town and snow was falling at the rate of around 2″ per hour during the game and they played the game with the Eagles winning 34-20.  This part of the weather pattern will most likely return just one or two days after the Superbowl, but will it snow in this next cycle?  Very likely it will, and if the LRC cycle length remains close to the 57 days it has been consistently, then this potential snow would happen after the Super Bowl warm-up.  High pressure moved in as you can see on thid December 8th surface map below:

LRC C2 Surfac Dec 8LRC C2 Surface Dec 9

The set-up for that snowstorm in Philadelphia had this high pressure area move in behind a cold front.  A warm advection pattern did set up and heavy snow was the result in the northeast and near the coast. We strongly believe that when this pattern returns in the early February version of the LRC, that any chance of snow will be with a storm four or five days before and one or two days after the big game.  a warm-up is likely sometime late in Super Bowl week, and any chance of snow is quite low for the game, and using the LRC we have put out the no chance of snow press release based on this likely set up in LRC cycle 3.  This is a tight window, but our confidence is high!

Now, on to Kansas City. The weather pattern I just described above will also impact us later in January into the first couple of weeks of February.  There will be some more cold air between now and then, but another major Arctic blast will likely arrive around Superbowl Sunday in KC and the plains with potential storm systems.

For now, we have a weak system coming our way tonight, and then the stronger one on Friday.  This first weak system will spread thick cloud cover and some light snow and freezing drizzle into our area. Take a look at the latest NAM model simulated radar:

1

A disturbance aloft will be approaching and creating the conditions for an area of snow to develop and approach Kansas City from the south.  The map above shows the simulated radar valid at midnight tonight. And, this map below shows the simulated radar six hours later at 6 AM Thursday:

3

The area of snow is forecast by this computer model to just barely get into the KC metro area before exiting rapidly off to the east.  And, KC will likely be on the western edge of this band of precipitation. I will be watching radar this evening closely from Southern California and I will update you tonight if this gets exciting at all.  There will likely be some minor accumulations of less than an inch of snow, and possibly some freezing drizzle creating some slick conditions later tonight.

And, then we get to concentrate on this next system.  Warmer air will be drawn in ahead of this next storm and the precipitation type will most likely be rain with a few thunderstorms possible.  Here is the simulated radar valid Friday afternoon.  And, any shift to the east or south and Kansas City could again be on the edge of this system. It would be nice to get a good soaking.

4

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather 2020 blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. Have a great Wednesday.

Gary

48 Comments

  1. Phenomenal blog entry today Gary, it’s just amazing how much I’m learning through your extensive analysis and detail. It really gets you excited to follow it even closer.

    These warmer temps over the next 7-10 days will be nice and the moisture on Friday would be ideal as well.

    I’m also interested to see how you believe the rest of KC’s winter will play out. Though we’ve had some moderate snow events, I’m hoping we see a bigger one at some point.

    Have a great Wednesday everyone!!!!!

    Reply
  2. Thank you Gary for the great Super Bowl write up!!!

    Reply
  3. Great post Gary. I recently moved back to Joplin for work, rhis blogs keeps me informed as to what is going on in the region. Thanks for all your efforts.

    Reply
  4. Gary do u think that most of January will be pretty quiet on snow and maybe warmer Thanks

    Reply
  5. Thanks for this blog Gary, I was hoping you would give your thought on the weather for the Superbowl. The Farmer’s Almanac prediction seemed pretty bold, and I’m just amazed how many people follow their forecasts. Their forecast of a Superbowl snowstorm seemed to be the statement of their Winter Predictions across the country this year. If it busts, which it likely will, all the Farmer’s Almanac Beliebers will be highly dissapointed.

    Reply
  6. Gary, As you are with your mom in California, my mother is headed to MAYO next Thursday. On the old website, we could access regions of the US and see the weather prediction for that timeframe. I’m on an android phone so can’t access the app. Can we still view this feature on the website itself? I was wanting to know what the weather looks like for MAYO/Rochester MN for the 16-22. We are hoping they keep her and do the surgery after her apt on Friday. Any info you can give me, I’d appreciate. My parents will be driving, so I”m trying to find out all I can. Thank you so much :)

    Reply
    • Christine,

      That is part of the plan to place the forecasts on the website, but it will come sometime down the road a bit. Good luck with your mom. My mom got dealt some tough news from our meetings yesterday, but she is going to battle hard!

      Gary

      Reply
      • Prayers for you and your family

        Reply
  7. Gary, great writeup about the Superbowl forecast. It was a press release ? What publication or news outlets was it released to ? I wish the NFL would see it. Did they make contingency plans due to the Farmer’s Almanac prediction…or were contingency plans put into place simply because of where it is being played. I would think that at the time the location is chosen, contingency plans are always a part of it, if it is going to be an outdoor venue someplace that might see winter storms. (when do they do chose the venue..1-2 yrs in advance ?).
    Anyway, I hope the NFL takes notice of your LRC and uses IT instead of the Almanac in the future !

    Continued prayers for your mom Gary. She is a strong lady to have gone through so much this year and still has that beautiful smile.

    Reply
    • Alice,

      It has been sent out to all of the outlets that have mentioned the snow forecast that we know of, and it has been sent to the NFL, and all the sports networks.

      Gary

      Reply
      • Thumbs up for that Gary ! It is high time you get some national recognition !!

        Reply
  8. Gary,
    Do you think Friday will be a total wash-out? I am taking my 5th graders to Snow Creek 9-2 , and would like to know if we should reschedule. Thanks

    Reply
    • The GFS has trended away from a lot of rain. And, the latest model run pushed that heavier “wash out” rain off to the east of KC. So, it’s your call, we are on the edge.

      Gary

      Reply
  9. Hey Gary do expect KC metro area to have potential some big snow event’s in this time frame in later January and the first few week’s of February or so?

    Reply
    • Nope.

      Reply
      • Yes with two big snowstorms.

        Reply
        • That is a wishcast lol. We haven’t had one big one all season.

          Reply
          • And so is your “Nope”. How is that any different of a wishcast than someone saying there will be? Even though we likely will not have as much snow as the I44 corridor as storms have been heavier down there so far, is no indication that a few storms migrate a couple hundred miles. All still fits within the LRC.

          • We will just wait and see. A lot of people didn’t think we was last year. Then all at once we had to big back to back. I think will have one or two. Isn’t wishcasting the same way say where not going to have any snow more than 4 inches all winter? There’s same that I’ve heard say that on here. Not saying any names.

          • I’d like to see some names…The pattern is what it is. Odds are we won’t get a big storm.

  10. GFS trending away from big rainfall amounts this Friday. Showing less than .10 inches on the 12z run. The NAM still has around .50 inches of rain on the 12z run. Going to line up with all the other heavy precip. events that have passed to our south and east so far this winter. Hopefully it will trend further NW as the storm approaches. Rain would be a good thing Friday. The NAM actually showed frozen precip. towards Sat. morning as the system pulls away.

    Reply
  11. Hello!
    Are you still seeing a good winter for Denver with some good snow storms?? Hope we get hammered!!!
    Thank you

    Reply
  12. Gary, l hope the best for your mom. Whatever she is fighting, don’t get dicouraged.

    Reply
  13. *discouraged

    Reply
  14. Yes I’m with Nick, hope Denver has a wet winter/spring ahead with good snowfalls!
    What are you thinking for the Denver Metro area Gary?

    Reply
  15. Okay, I will sing the same song, third verse, or is it fourth verse. Just as happened three times before,
    everybody is getting caught up models, everything will go back northwest, just like it did this weekend.
    The entire area will receive a three fourths to one inch of rain and I would not be surprised to see sleet,
    freezing rain and snow.

    That having been said, this cloud cover is really doing a number on the temperature, along with the east just to wind. It 1 o’clock and 21°.
    I realize things can change quickly, but several years ago we had several setups just like this, I bet when we get up tomorrow, the
    National Weather Service is reduced for high-temperature from 37° down to 34° by Thursday night or Friday morning will be under
    a Winter Storm Watch. Snow and cold ground. It will do a number as will the cloud cover, keeping the temperature below forecasted
    levels. Just like a couple years ago, with a similar set up none of the models from any place to get a handle upon the temperature.

    We will see if I am right or wrong in another 2 1/2 or three days.

    Gary, be thankful you have a mother who is willing to fight and that you still have a mother!
    Unfortunately, I am an orphan this, both of my parents are dead..

    Reply
  16. stjoeattourney – never underestimate the power of warm air advection.

    Reply
    • Very true. Can take you from 0 degrees to a steady 33 degrees and heavy rain almost like magic.

      Reply
  17. Gary – what’s up with the weather widget thing on your 41 Action News website. It says tonight’s low is supposed to be 8!

    Kansas City, MO 64112
    Cloudy28°FCloudyFeels Like: 18° FHigh: 28° FLow: 8° FHumidity:55%Dew Point:14° FBarometer:30.33 inWind:ENE 11 mphVisibility:10 milesSunrise:7:35 amSunset:5:14 pm

    Reply
  18. 440 pm misty 34 degrees. Cancellations are starting here south of KC. Follows the I 44 highway it seems. No school so far this week down here.

    Reply
  19. I will admit that the models have been having a hard time dealing with this pattern, even after Friday, lots of waves moving by going to be tricky for forecasting the next week.

    Reply
    • He put all his chips on the table. Truly going out on a limb.

      Reply
  20. I respect that! Win lose or draw.that’s commendable Gary

    Reply
  21. The article that soemone posted above seemed to poke fun at the field of TV mets. That’s the way i read it as. Well you put it out there 30 days out so we’ll see what happens.

    I have found 2 outlets that refer to the LRC in my research. One of the outlets that someone posted on here was the weather center. Does anyone know who operates that site? It was very detailed and as someone stated yesterday they appear to have a met degree and they appear to have been at it for a while. I don’t know this as fact as it’s just an asssumption on my part fom reading his blog and winter forecast.

    Gary I have a question and if you don’t have time to answer I understand as you need to spend as much time with your mom as you can. My question is this. Are you more into trying to prove your theory or are you more into marketing your theory for a business oppurtunity? In researching your theory I have found it to be a business registered as a LLC in MO but under the laws of Nevada. I like to know as much as I can so I can undersatnd where ones motives are in defending their particular theory. Please don’t misunderstand me there’s nothing wrong with a business angle if that’s your only intention. It would seem to me that you would have a better chance of being successfull as far as a business if your theory could be verified and accepted. It’s going to be fun to learn and track your LRC theory.

    Please know that my prayers are with you and your mom and family in this difficult time. May God bless you and your mother and I hope that you can find some strength in the well wishes of those who have written and prayed for you.

    Reply
    • Sam,

      Thank you for the kind words. And, where is my motivation. The #1 priority is to share the LRC with everyone, as we believe it is the best weather forecast tool/method in the field of meteorology today, for long range, but even down to hours before a storm hits. Getting a peer reviewed paper is also a goal, but the only way I can do that is if I take around two to three months off to adequately prepare that report. I obviously don’t have that time. Just these few days allows me to do research.

      Gary

      Reply
  22. Didn’t Gary say last week that we would have a storm sometime next week?

    Reply
    • Yes. He said the 15-18.

      Reply
      • 10 to 69 days I think.

        Reply
  23. Where is the big bad storm that the LRC predicted for next week? Is it a poof? All the hype on it disappeared.

    Reply
  24. Nah, we will get plenty more snow this winter…not worried at all.

    Reply
  25. It’s not a money making scheme. Only us weather nerds care about it. The average Joe watching the local news and weather have no idea what it is and don’t care to know.

    Reply
  26. Like I said Dougy I think we will have a storm or two that we have at least 6inches late January early to mid February. Just because you think that where not because we haven’t had anything yet close to that. Gary did say things where going to be exciting about that time frame.This from a Snow Lover.

    Reply
    • Gotta love your optimism!

      Reply
  27. Ed

    Reply
  28. I think there at least 5 more!!!

    Reply
  29. I know Gary and Jeff have used the LRC to forecast for crops that farmers use and make money at their long term forecast. You may not see it and it will not line up the same way every time, but the overall accurate general trends are extremely valuable to many people who depend on weather for their business.

    To say it is a money maker scheme is totally inaccurate. Gary and his team rarely brings up the LRC on his weather segment and only promotes it here on his blog. If you think his forecast is hype, go back and see how accurate he and his team has been this very difficult year. Its easy to get frustrated watching storms pass us to the south or strengthen to our east, but the LRC had showed us this pattern very early if you are objective.

    Reply
  30. Well Gary, your press release’s prediction of no snow for the Super Bowl will either advance the credentials of the LRC nationally, or aid to sink it nationally. I saw some northern New Jersey news website printed an article about it, and they managed to bungle it and call it the LCR. In any case, either the Farmer’s Almanac or you are going to be wrong, as the two predictions are quite mutually exclusive.

    Reply

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Super Bowl 2014: Weather predicted to be unseasonably warm, no snow | All New York Giants - […] Super Bowl forecast comes from “Weather 2020,” which is an app based on something called the Lezak’s Recurring Cycle …
  2. Super Bowl 2014: Weather predicted to be unseasonably warm, no snow - ALIPAC - […] during the day are projected to reach into the 50's. The Super Bowl forecast comes from "Weather 2020," …

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