LRC Forecast Experience
The Gary Lezak Weather Blog
Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Whew! It has been an active few days in August. This is right on the LRC schedule. Here is that weather forecast video we made for this half of the month:
This video forecast has verified 100%. It’s another incredibly accurate long range forcast using our breakthrough technology. Remember, we are the only ones in the world making any long range forecast videos like this, and they are verifying time after time, forecast after forecast. What lies ahead of us? September is usually one of our wettest months, when you are in a wet pattern. This cycling pattern continues, and we are forecasting a warm September and near to above average rainfall.
This is a rain gauge from Shawnee, KS. Mike Frizzell tweeted out this picture. Wow! Shawnee was in the band of thunderstorms yesterday evening that had training echoes. I had an additional 0.69″ last night, as south Overland Park was just barely out of the band of thunderstorms. This still pushes my three day total to over 6 inches.
So, what lies ahead. Let’s take a look at today’s video blog:
Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Let us know how much rain you have had the past few days and if you have any questions.
Good evening bloggers,
A Tornado Warning has been issued for just north of Kansas City! And, we will discuss, as this actually happened on a day off I had two cycles ago in May. We had a tornado warning across the northern KC metro area, then, and we have one now just a bit farther north. This is yet another example of the LRC down to smaller scales.
As I watch this like the rest of you do, it’s pretty interesting in watching our coverage. I had one of our storm chasers call in and they had the anchors talk to our storm chaser, and not our weather team. That is so wrong. I can’t stress it more, that is so wrong as they don’t know what questions to ask him. He was on for 30 seconds and he is right underneath the cell. Why not stick with him and ask the right questions. JD would have done great, but this is not what was done.
Above, you can see the tornado warning, where there was one brief tornado touchdown, and the line building farther south. We have to monitor each one of these thunderstorms closely.
Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
If you look at the entire world there is one slight risk area for severe thunderstorms today. And, this slight risk area is centered over Kansas City where it has been quite wet the past few days, especially on the south side of the KC metro area. Here is the latest severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center:
The surface features are weak with an old front or outflow boundary hanging around. The real warm front may be farther south in Oklahoma. It’s really rather complex.
A potential very weak surface low may develop, and this could create the conditions for marginally severe to severe thunderstorms. This is a forecast map valid at 3 PM, but I don’t see evidence of this yet. Let’s see how this evolves. Weather2020 is the official meteorologist for the Rhythm & Balloons festival with a concert tonight. We obviously will be monitoring this closely.
5 PM Update:
The surface low never materialized, and there is no warm front as described by the SPC. And, as a result, the thunderstorms are struggling to strengthen. Here they were as of 5 PM:
it’s a nice weak line of thunderstorms as of 5 PM, but will it strengthen as we approach sunset? Let’s monitor it closely.
Good morning bloggers,
It could be a stormy evening. I will write up a new blog early this afternoon.
Well, I had 2.49″ of rain last night, adding to the 3.26″ from yesterday for a two-day total of 5.75″. Wow! Here is a look at the 3:30 AM radar when thunderstorms were wide spread with a torrential downpour on the south side of KC.
We are in the monsoon flow.
I will write up a new blog later this morning. It appears that we will begin to see these rain chances go down for a few days. I am on my way to meet with the publisher of “It’s A Sunny Life”. Amazon.com was out of stock, but they just made a huge order, so they are available again.
Have a great start to your day. How was this drink of water for the crops?
Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Well, incredible is the first word that comes to my mind this morning. After so many frustrations on the south side of the city, well it ended last night. I just checked the rain gauge and 0.43″ fell after midnight adding to the 2.83″ from yesterday for a total of 3.26″ in south Overland Park, and it is not even close to being done yet. How much rain did you receive?
Do you remember, what I called, the rare July storm? Well, we are now having a rare August storm in LRC Cycle 7. This August storm is right on the LRC schedule as the pattern is cycling between 47 and 52 days. What happened around 150 days ago in March? There couldn’t possibly have been severe weather in the same spot could there be? Well, you know the answer, and I will say the statement of the year in this blog, “You can’t make this up”. The Indiana tornadoes yesterday came around 150 days after this:
The severe weather on March 27th occurred in a very similar spot to yesterday, 152 days apart or very close to a 50 day cycle, right on schedule.
On this water vapor satellite picture you can see a lot. One thing that is quite visible is the ITCZ, or the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The low-level circulation over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans is dominated by the easterly flow around the equatorward flank of the subtropical high-pressure belts near 30N and 30S. There are weak synoptic-scale disturbances that cause the wind to fluctuate between northeasterly and southeasterly. These disturbances are called easterly waves because they move from east to west, in contrast to middle-latitude disturbances that usually move from west to east. Also endemic to the tropical oceans is a class of extremely intense, circular vortices called tropical cyclones, which account for the strongest sustained surface winds observed anywhere in the earth’s atmosphere. Most of these storms develop during the warm season, over a few well-defined areas.
These tropical systems that become tropical storms and hurricanes will most often form just north of the ITCZ, and there are a few out there this morning. Hurricane Gaston is over the harmless waters of the Atlantic Ocean, and the orange x is now entering the Weather2020 forecast hot spot this season and it will likely develop into a tropical storm (Hermine?) in the next 24 to 48 hours:
Another band of rain is coming across this morning, and there is a rather strong MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vort Max) and you can see it in today’s video. If you go back and look at the July 4th weekend storm, then you will be able to see that I posted some of these spinning disturbances then. From the Storm Reports comparison, to the weather pattern comparison, to these smaller scale disturbances, the entire pattern is cycling. Again, incredible. Okay, there is thunder, and I am going to look outside!
Here is today’s video. Thank you for participating and sharing in the LRC Forecast Experience! Have a great day!
Good Evening Weather2020 Bloggers,
Look at the set up as of 4:30 PM. The cold front is just northwest of Salina, and this is where the thunderstorms are beginning to form:
This front will move very slowly, and monsoon moisture is streaming north, and there is as usual at this time of the year copious amounts of low level Gulf of Mexico moisture. There is also an anchor upper level storm, that we will discuss in tomorrow’s blog, over the southwestern United States. This will have to lead to some high rainfall totals tonight. Here is the latest NAM model:
The developing zone that is now coming together:
This is where the thunderstorms will likely develop between now and sunset, and then the conditions are highly favorable for tracking them to the northeast:
Flooding is the biggest threat tonight. There is a good chance of another heavy rain event Thursday night into Friday, but let’s see what happens with this first one. Thank you for participating in this exciting weather experience. Have a great evening.
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