Get your 12 Week Forecast

LRC Forecast Experience

The Gary Lezak Weather Blog

Monday’s Look Into This Dry Pattern

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

A very dry weather pattern is currently in progress over most of the western two thirds of the United States.  In Los Angeles, it did rain this month 0.45″ so far. L.A. averages only 0.66″ in October, but no rain is in sight at the moment for them.  In Kansas City, MO, 0.06″ has fallen which is more than one inch below average. And, there is also no rain in sight at the moment.

This first map shows the flow aloft, around 18,000 feet up (500 mb level) valid at 7 PM tonight.  A storm is developing near the northern Great Lakes today:


The weather pattern is currently setting up for the year, and the new LRC 2015-2016 is starting out as a dry pattern from Los Angeles to Kansas City. Now, as I have been discussing let’s hang on and just put this first week of the patter as starting out dry. Let’s see what happens in the next five weeks.  There is a big chunk of this pattern for us to see and experience before we make any strong conclusions.

This next map shows the surface forecast valid at 7 PM this evening.  you can see a strong surface low north of Lake Superior and just south of Hudson Bay in Canada.  Most of the nation will have a gorgeous sunny day!


Now, look at this:


This next map shows the upper level flow valid in 120 hours or Friday night.  A big trough continues over eastern Canada extending southeast into the New England states. A storm is off the west coast trying to break through the ridge. Again, this is a dry pattern for most of the United States for another five days.

Let’s see how the models trend today. We will look at the latest AO, NOA, PNA, and ENSO conditions in tomorrow’s blog. It’s fall foliage season.  Here is a look at one tree I saw as I was heading home Saturday, after getting one last day in a friends pool. Yes, pool time in October.  Have a great day, and thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Let us know if you have any questions.



The Roulette Wheel Of Weather Is Spinning

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The weather pattern is now evolving into what it will be for the next year. The new LRC is setting up right before our eyes, and we are likely in week 1 of the first LRC cycle of the 2015-2016 season.  The roulette wheel of weather is spinning. Where will the ball drop. Last year it dropped in Boston’s slot and they ended up with a ridiculous winter with cold and snow. Over 100 inches of snow fell smashing their seasonal snowfall records.  In Kansas City the ball didn’t even come close to dropping in the right spot, and as we explained so many times during the past year Kansas City was in the wrong spot most of the time, and only 14 inches of snow fell in around a dozen different snow events.  That’s an average of just over one inch per snow event.

Let’s look at two maps this morning, and we will look farther ahead in the next few days. This first map shows the flow around 18,000 feet above us, the 500 mb level or half way through the atmosphere in weight. A storm is digging just a bit into the Great Lakes states and northeast. And, there is a broad flat ridge near the west coast. There is also an upper low off the California coast. There is also a deeper upper low circulation over northern Canada:


This is likely the first part of the weather pattern that will be affecting North America this next year. Now take a look at what happens just a couple of days later:



By Wednesday night the ridge grows strong again near the west coast, and the trough over the northeast becomes strong and negatively tilted, leaning form the northwest to the southeast.  This is disturbing for Kansas City and the west, and exciting for the northeast once again. This would imply one of the main developing features is once again a long wave trough closer to the east coast. Now, again, don’t jump to  too many conclusions. There are another five to six weeks of weather patterns to look at before we  make any forecast for this winter.  El Niño is strong, and there are many other factors to consider. For now, it is a boring beginning to the pattern for us out west.

Have a great Saturday and thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog.


The Changing Pattern

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Yesterday evening suddenly had three bad hours for me as a meteorologist and weather forecaster.  We had gone 31 straight days of getting the forecast high temperature accurately predicted within 3 degrees. And, we were forecasting one day with a chance of rain all week. That day just happened to be an impacting one where the Royals hosted the Astros in Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series.  We forecasted accurately that there would be a cold front move through around the first three innings of that game, but with just a slight chance of rain. Two hours before the game the sky was clear with a few weak, but building cumulus clouds. Then right as the game began a broken line of showers and thunderstorms formed, one of which caused a 49 minute rain delay. We make our forecast for the jumbotron, called Crown Vision at Kauffman Stadium that they play around the first inning. In that forecast I said, “keep your eye to the sky, there may be an isolated shower”. And, it was raining while they played it at the end of the first inning, and yes, for the second time this year, I apparently was booed. As if it was my fault, lol.  To add insult to injury, the high got up to 87°, and our forecast high of 83° was four degrees off.  So, just like that the 31 game, weather forecasting accuracy streak, was over.

Kansas City is one of the most unpredictable cities in the United States.  Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows:

1.  Kansas City, Missouri
2,  Oklahoma City
3.  Minneapolis
4.  Cincinnati
5.  Indianapolis
6.  St. Louis
7.  Birmingham, Alabama
8.  Boston
9.  Milwaukee
10.  Dallas

Here is the link to that article:  Most Unpredictable Weather

And, guess what, today we have another forecast problem. Low clouds were surging this way while I was writing this blog entry:


This satellite picture above shows the low clouds in the dark shaded areas, with the higher clouds as the white shaded areas. There as a thick band of low clouds approaching KC from the north. It appears they will arrive later this morning, and even though I saw this as a possibility yesterday, I still forecasted clouds with sun breaking through and a high of 67°.  If the clouds surge in before noon, and it appears they will, then the high may only be 62 or 63 degrees, and it will suddenly be two days in a row not within three. When you get on a hot streak like we were, it may seem easy to be within 3 degrees, but I would bet we won’t have another streak longer than 12  days the rest of the year as the difficulty factor goes up with the changing seasons.


It’s Friday, and the map above is Sunday’s surface forecast map. Look at it closely. Notice how all of the surface low pressure areas are far to the north. One of them is off the west coast of Canada, a second one is way north of North Dakota, and the third big one is way up near Greenland.  This is providing the conditions for some possible record breaking warm air near the Great Lakes south into the plains. The only rain forecast on Sunday is in Florida. The rest of the nation is dry as a bone most of this weekend.

The LRC is likely into day 3 today of the 2015-2016 season.  What is this pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year. I will say it again, don’t jump to any conclusions yet. It is way too early.

Have a great day!


LRC Cycle 1 & Let’s Go Royals

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The weather for all of the playoff games the next few day is looking great. Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. If you know anything about the cycling weather pattern hypothesis named by the 41 Action News weather bloggers over 10 years ago, then you know what we are seeing, at the beginning of this year’s pattern, is not good for us weather enthusiasts. The other thing that you may know is that it is still very early and major changes can happen at any time. We likely just experienced day 1 of LRC 2015-2016 yesterday. And, suddenly the chance of rain in Kansas City is down to near zero through this evening, which is great news for the Royals home playoff game against Houston. It should be rocking out at Kauffman stadium tonight. The two wild card games saw pitching dominate and the road teams won. Hopefully the Royals can get a big game 1 victory tonight. Take a look at the 500 mb flow valid this evening:


I got an A+ in Synoptic Meteorology Lab at the University of Oklahoma, one of my favorite classes.  I only got a B+ in Synoptic Meteorology, which wasn’t fair because I had the top grade of all of the undergraduates and my professor, Dr. Fred Carr gave the three graduate students in our class an A, and I got the top grade for the undergraduates because he graded on a curve. But, it was an undergraduate course, so that may have been unfair, not that I have been thinking about it for 30 years, LOL.  In Synoptic Lab we were taught to plot maps. A black dashed line shows the troughs, and the squiggly lines show the ridges.


Now, what do you see on this map above?  I didn’t plot it today, I just wanted you to look at it and see if you can see the features.  This is the 90 hour forecast valid 7 PM Sunday.  It is just incredible how dry it is from the west coast to the east coast, so there should not be any weather problems, except for some October heat building, this weekend for the baseball and football games.  Take a look at the strong surface low well north of the USA/Canada border.  And, there is a warm front way up there and a trough extending south from the surface low that goes all the way to the Texas/Mexico border.  This will provide the conditions for record breaking October heat Sunday into Monday.

Not Good News For California:

GFS 240 Hour October 17

Here is the good and bad news.  The good news is that the pattern is just now evolving and it is still in it’s formative stage. So, when you see a map ten days out at this time of the year, and we don’t have any other cycle to compare it to, then we know that either this model has a good handle on it, which would be very bad news for those wanting a significant break from the California drought, or this model is just wrong and there is still hope it will look very different ten days from now. This near the west coast ridge better go away and soon. It is lasting way too long and this could very well be a significant part of this pattern. I always tell you to not jump to conclusions until we get to around November 10th. So, for now, let’s hope this is wrong. It would not be good for KC either.

That’s it for now. Thank you for sharing in this LRC Forecast Experience.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. The weather is looking excellent for today’s baseball games in Toronto and KC.  Let’s Go Royals!


Winter Forecasts Too Early

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Winter forecasts continue to pour out of various sources around the world. Yes, we now are 100% confident that El Niño is developing and strengthening. Here is the video we posted:

El Niño is the warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean, and it will have an influence on the weather pattern this winter.  As discussed in yesterday’s blog, it is strengthening as of today and it may become the strongest El Niño ever recorded. And, now this forecast comes out from AccuWeather:

AccuWX Winter_October7_screen-shot-2015-10-02-at-2.30.36-pm

There is one huge difference from the Weather2020 Winter Forecast that will come out once we identify the features in the pattern that, we believe, no one knows yet since they are just now forming. The huge difference is that you see one map here. One map that has one forecast for 90 days.  We are making 12 weeks of forecasts, and we will be forecasting and timing out when the cold outbreaks, the warm spells, the biggest winter storms will hit down to a series of dates, and at times down to a specific date.  What do you think of this one static map from AccuWeather?  To me, it is just what a classic El Niño would indicate, and this is fine. But, as you know we believe something bigger is going on.

Now, look at the GFS rainfall forecast for the next 16 days. Now, I have no confidence in this as the pattern is in major transition.  One thing to watch closely in the LRC developing period, which is in progress and will last for the next six weeks, will be the storm systems that come into the west. If California is going to have a very wet winter, then we must see some evidence of a storm breaking in there during the next month or so. This is not promising, but it is very early.

Screen Shot 2015-10-07 at 7.50.08 AM

The Houston Astros are coming to Kansas City for game 1 of the American League Divisional Series on Thursday evening. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:37 PM.  We do have a front approaching the area right around that time. Here is a simulation of the forecast at 8 PM Thursday night that I showed on the air last night:


Now, will it be just a spotty shower or brief thunderstorm zipping by, or will it be an organized line of thunderstorms? This is one of the questions we will try to answer and forecast on 41 Action News and today into Thursday. Let’s see what the new data shows. And, we will look at the other games as well in tomorrow’s blog.

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.


Some Indications Of A New Pattern Evolving

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We hope everyone is having a great start to Tuesday. The weather pattern is always fascinating, but it can also be exciting for us weather enthusiasts at times.  In the past year, if you lived in Boston, MA it had to have been one of the most exciting years ever for the weather hobbyist as they had over 100 inches of snow and so many exciting storm systems.  If you lived in KC, then you likely went the entire winter last year frustrated with very little to cheer for.  Well, the good news is that a new weather pattern is setting up which provides tremendous hope of a new weather pattern, but it doesn’t guarantee it will be a great one in your area. There are strong indications that something new is happening right now.

Let’s begin today by looking at four indexes starting with the AO. The second graphic shows the PNA index, and then the NAO.  We will finish by looking at the E Niño 3.4 region temperature anomaly:

AO October 5 PNA October 5 NAO October 5


These indexes will be something we discuss in detail in the next few weeks and months.  The only take away I want you to consider today is the rather obvious change that seems to be happening right now, and right on cue. The PNA suddenly is taking a surge from the negative to the positive. The AO is suddenly going from near neutral to slightly negative and now dipping deeper into the negative right in the next few days. The NAO is still staying near neutral, and El Niño has just reached the high level of 2.4°C above average in the important 3.4 region.  Remember, according to the LRC, a unique pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th.  A cycle evolves, and then this pattern continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer.  Everything is changing right now, but to what? We will continue this discussion tomorrow.

Have a great Tuesday. Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog.