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The Gary Lezak Weather Blog

Where Will These Thunderstorms Track?

Good evening bloggers,

What is happening? Are these really heading towards Kansas City? As of 5:15 PM they certainly seemed to be taking a bee line right towards KC.

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The image above, is from 5 PM sharp. I will update this at 6 PM sharp, and see where they are headed.  The models did not model this well at all for this time frame, so let’s do rule number 1 of forecasting the weather, “Always look outside, because you never know”.

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Here is a 6 PM radar image. Let’s watch this closely during the next hour. The farther south thunderstorms are intensifying.

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Wow, look at the difference by 7 PM:

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It’s amazing how close it is, and yet how far away it may still be.  I think the next hour will tell the tale!

And, here we are at 8 PM, and it appears that it will begin taking that southeast track. I am not 100% convinced, and we will know so much more at 9 PM. Here is the 8 PM radar:

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9 PM Radar update:

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It appears that this is weakening. Let’s see how it evolves in the next hour.

I will update this every hour until it falls apart or turns away……

Gary

The Grass Is Greener

Good morning bloggers,

It hasn’t rained in two weeks in many spots, suddenly, and yet the grass is still green. I was somewhat surprised this morning on my daily walk with Breezy and Sunny at how green all of the lawns still are, even the ones that are not irrigated.  I was expecting a few showers and thunderstorms this morning, but not again:

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There were altocumulus clouds all over the place this morning with a few towering ones trying to form into showers and thunderstorms. But, it didn’t quite happen at least as of 7:30 AM. We get a symptom of this entire year with two small areas of showers and thunderstorms jus north and just south of the KC region.

Where are we in the LRC Cycle now?

We are at the very end of LRC Cycle 6. The seventh cycle will begin right around August 1st.  The Thanksgiving weekend part of the pattern is now cycling through and you can actually see it on today’s July version and compare it to the November version of this year’s LRC:

LRC Cycle 1 November 24

LRC Cycle 6 July 30

It is truly incredible and the waves that are affecting the plains now can be shown to be directly related to the waves that were ahead of the main storm in November.  In July, however, one of the many seasonal differences to the pattern is th heat over the southwestern United States that bends the upper flow over the anticyclone as you can see above. And, in November, the heights rose significantly over Canada allowing for the storm to close off and get stuck to slowly meander across the United States, taking seven to eight days to track into the northeastern United States by early December.

In this sixth and now becoming seventh LRC Cycle, it will also take around seven to eight days for this series of systems to track across the nation. By August 6th, this part of the pattern finally will be moving off the northeast coast.

So, what will this mean for where you live?  Look at this rainfall forecast for these next eight days:

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This forecast would imply that all of the Kansas City region will get between 1″ and 6″ of rain, most of the area receiving closer to 1″. This would be a great drink of water for the soy bean crops. The corn crop is already made and it will be great in our area. If there are any farmers out there I would love to get some confirmation on this.

Have a great day!

Gary

To Rain or Not To Rain, That Is The Question

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We continue to have challenging forecasts around the nation in this summer pattern. We have had a fairly wet month of July around Kansas City, and yet we need rain. At this time of the year the lawn could have a drink of around 2″ per week to keep it lush and green.  Even though almost 8 inches of rain has fallen this month, most of it came in the first half of July, the first 13 days to be more precise, so it has been around two weeks without any widespread rain.  There have been a few spots that have been hit by 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts, but most areas have been missed during these last two weeks.

Weather video of the day:

It is rather difficult to explain, so hopefully this video makes sense to you. If you have any questions let us know.  Have a great day.

Gary

Dispelling the myth: weather prediction and the LRC

Good morning,

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We are now moving into the 7th LRC Cycle, and just as the 8th LRC Cycle begins in late September, the new LRC will begin setting up.  El Niño, the strongest in recorded history, has faded into the beginning of a potential La Niña winter. The status is currently neutral.  With this big development we know better. We are still in the same pattern.  The jet stream is currently reaching it’s weakest and farthest north position, so August usually is quieter than July. Let’s see how it sets up in the next month.

I met Dr. John Papazafiropoulos a couple of weeks ago at Lifetime Fitness while we were both working out.  He started discussing the LRC with me and said he had been doing some statistical analysis.  And, then a few days later he wrote this article on LinkedIn posted below. Here is the link:  Dispelling The Myth

Dispelling the myth: weather prediction and the LRC

Published on July 14, 2016
Like Dispelling the myth: weather prediction and the LRC
Dr. John Papazafiropoulos
Weather prediction has always been a mixture between art and science and is one of the oldest and thus most resistant to change sources of information.

A local Kansas City weatherman, Gary Lezak, has been working for about a decade on a new way to predict the weather, especially in the areas of greatest weakness at the moment with the traditional prediction methods: long-range forecasts.

The model he has created is based on a rather common theme in nature: cyclicality. His model is named LRC and has drawn a lot of attention over the last decade, both positive and negative. I have been following the model for the last three or four years and have done a preliminary statistical analysis which indicates a high degree of both accuracy and reliability (two areas that the model often comes under scrutiny). It is to some degree understandable why meteorologists would resist changing the way they’ve used to predict the weather for a long time, humans after all are rather resistant to change. However, the criticism I have seen leveled against this specific model is rather immature. For example, it appears that many people misunderstand what accuracy means. People expect accuracy to mean 100%, however, it is statistically impossible to generate any prediction with 100% certainty. My preliminary study of the LRC places it at the 95% accuracy level which is the most accepted level for statistical studies for both academia and business. Additionally people seem to have a hard time with the concept that in meteorology any prediction that spans hundreds of square miles is considered accurate even if the prediction might be a few miles outside the predicted area. The best way to visualize that is looking at a toddler walk: trying to predict the direction that the toddler will take is similar to predicting a storm path.

Empirically then the model makes a lot of sense, many natural phenomena are indeed cyclical. Statistically speaking the model so far in my preliminary evaluation demonstrates a very high degree of confidence. While Studying all the available data will allow me to make a much more accurate statistical analysis what I’ve seen so far is to say the least promising. The LRC demonstrates a higher predictive value than existing models when it comes to long-term weather prediction, with the understanding of course that there is not such thing a statistical certainty.

DISCLAIMER: this is not the paid endorsement of this meteorological prediction model even though I do know Mr. Lezak and have offered to work in the LRC team. My opinion is and will remain unbiased

Today’s Weather:

Nice! We will look ahead on Wednesday!

Gary

Wet or Dry, It Depends On Where You Live

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The frustration is peaking again for some of us near KC that got zero rain last night. I literally did not have one drop of rain and yet had thunderstorms within a few miles of my house all night long. I must have seen 100 lightning strikes last night.

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The top picture shows the enhanced water vapor satellite picture, and the second one shows the radar as of 7 AM.  So close, and yet so far away, and now the chance of rain is going back down for a few days.

Status of the LRC

This map shows the LRC Index Blend from the past two LRC seasons. It begins on October 1, 2014:

LRC Index Blend July 20 Plotted

We are now moving into the part of the weather pattern that has the weakest average jet stream strength and the farthest average north position of the jet stream. In two weeks we will be past this peak and the jet streams average strength and position will begin strengthening and shifting south again.  We are also now beginning the seventh LRC Cycle this week.  The best cycle to compare to this one is the last one. Why? Because in June we were moving into summer, and we are now deep into summer on July 25th.  What happened from June 5th to June 20th is lining up well with what the models are showing in the past few runs. This northwest flow aloft will likely dominate this week and then a big ridge is likely going to form. After the big ridge forms and we warm back up, the northwest flow will once again develop in August.

Here is a video with just some of my thoughts:

Let me know if you have any questions and have a great start to the week.

Gary

Today’s Weather Set-Up

Good Sunday to all of you,

I am late on the blog this morning as I just watched the Royals win the World Championship again. It was 8 months and 3 days ago, 266 days ago that the Royals beat the New York Mets in game 5 of the World Series after trailing 2-0 in the ninth inning. There were so many moments. And, while watching those moments again this morning you have to realize what just happened. They went to two World Series and won one. They are the reigning World Champions of baseball.  The Royals are struggling this year with all kinds of young players filling in the hole for injured players. They may not make it back to the playoffs this year, but of course they still may.  My point is, we experienced something special, a once or twice in a lifetime experience to see your team win it all. Let’s continue supporting them as we try to find a way to get back up on top.  Right now, it’s time to continue taking it in and reminiscing on what just happened 266 days ago.

That 266 days ago was in LRC Cycle 1. We are now moving into LRC Cycle 7.  Topping the weather news across the United States this morning is Tropical Storm Darby near the big island of Hawaii. It is forecast to track right over the garden island, Kauai.

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This track is bringing heavy rain, high surf, and some strong wind gusts to the islands. The orographic (elevation/mountain) affects of the rainfall patterns across Hawaii will be impacted by this tropical storm. It really is a fascinating thing to watch. It is taking a track they should produce heavy rain on the dry side of the islands, the desert sides. Did you know there is a desert side on most of the islands?  Let’s see if it produces today, and if they even get the heavy rains?

Today’s set up over the plains:

I did a time-lapse of ice cubes melting in 30 minutes outside this morning. Are we building the iceberg again, or breaking it down:

There is a weak summer cold front slowly drifting southeast. Depending on how hot it gets ahead of this front this afternoon, and a few other factors will decide where and when thunderstorms will form. It is really a bit tricky as there is a lot of cloud cover out over central Kansas:

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This is the front as of 11 AM. I will post some radar images later if anything does develop. I am expecting thunderstorms in this zone later this afternoon or evening, and then tonight as the front shifts south, some spots could get 2″ or more of rain, and this could target areas one to four counties south of KC.

Have a great Sunday!

Gary