LRC Forecast Experience
The Gary Lezak Weather Blog
Good afternoon bloggers,
Thank you for all of the messages I have been getting. My twitter account was hacked. Very sad. We are working on getting it resolved. I know I haven’t blogged yet today, I was going to, but right now I am addressing this issue.
Thank you for your patience.
Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
I am in Southern California visiting my family. I hadn’t seen them or been out here for a visit in 18 months. It is really going well, and I was able to enjoy this yesterday on my ride from the coast to the desert:
This was a high based thunderstorm that formed over the San Bernardino Mountains. The base was above 10,000 feet as I could see the base above the mountain peak before the rain shafts reached the ground. I did get to experience a few sprinkles out of it. I also experienced two possible land-spouts. But, I could not get a picture or verify as it was in the distance and I was driving. They didn’t last long, and this is what has me convinced they did occur.
As the new pattern evolves, there is a hurricane developing and caught in this change. Can you find it on this enhanced water vapor satellite picture?
Tropical Storm Matthew is going to become rather strong, but where is it going to track?
The GFS and the European model forecasts have been changing from model run to model run. The overnight runs had one solution of this system moving into the east coast (GFS) and another one of it staying way off shore. The offshore solution from the Euro model is on day ten, while the east coast solution from the GFS is valid three days earlier.
Let’s keep monitoring this closely. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. It’s almost October 1st, and many of you know what that means!
Good morning bloggers,
Where will this tropical system track?
There are many solutions scaring the eastern seaboard right now on possible strong hurricane formation and tracks into the east coast. This is possible, but guess what bloggers, the pattern is in massive transition. The models will likely have significant deviations from the tracks you are seeing, so let’s see how it looks in the next few days. Here is a quick video showing the overnight tracks that came in:
We are doing some maintenance on the Weather2020 site the next 24 hours, so if there is a period of time where you can’t comment or get in, please know that it will be brief. You may not notice at all.
Have a great day. I am heading to Los Angeles to visit family and friends.
Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The massive change in the weather pattern is now taking place and will evolve over the next few weeks. As this is happening, the tropical season is often affected. We must monitor the tropics very closely. Take a look at this morning’s outlook from the National Hurricane Center:
The system with the 90% chance of forming into a tropical storm is entering our predicted hot spot for this year and it will likely form into a hurricane in the next seven days. Take a look at where the European Model takes this system on day 10:
This shows a strong cold front moving across Missouri south to Texas and the hurricane just south of Florida. Remember, this would be caught in the new LRC as the old LRC will have been wiped out by day 10. This map above is valid 00z October 7th.
The GFS model has a different solution as you can see below:
This forecast is valid one week from Wednesday night. This takes the hurricane and threatens the mid-Atlantic states. Let’s follow these developments in the next five days as it will likely grab national attention soon.
Right now, the weather is just outstanding out there. Have a great day and let me know if you have any questions.
Good afternoon bloggers,
We have a lot going on with Weather2020 right now and I have been in meetings all day. I have a week and a half off from KSHB-TV and I will be heading to Los Angeles later this week.
Why am I excited about this forecast for Wednesday at 7 PM? Hint: It’s 5 PM Pacific time:
I am excited because I will be driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs Wednesday afternoon. There is an upper level low with just enough moisture available for some beautiful cloud formations to develop over the mountains. I can’t explain it, but it is my home town and growing up there the weather most often was over the mountains and I had to always experience it from afar. So, this is likely one of the reasons I can call drizzle a storm system because even that was extremely exciting and rare in Southern California. Wednesday, I will likely see some cumulonimbus clouds forming, and of course I will share it with you.
Above, you can see the weak upper low stretched out from Southern California to west of Baja. There is also an upper level storm over the Great Lakes states and this is why we will likely have high pressure building over the plains between now and Thursday. Eventually it will all shift eastward and look at what is forecast to happen by next Monday:
According to the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th. This map, one week from now is valid October 3rd. This means that something very different is now evolving.
Look at what is forecast to happen on this map above. This is a forecast for 264 hours from now, or on October 7th. If there is ever a date that I believe is a starting date for the LRC it is usually close to this date. That is one interesting storm near Kansas City on that day, but do not get excited yet. We do not know the pattern yet, but we will soon. This could an interesting first week of the LRC. It isn’t what the models show, however, it is what actually happens that counts.
Have a great Monday.
Good morning bloggers,
We will be tracking a fall cold front this morning. It isn’t very strong, but it will be noticeable when it moves through and we finally wipe out the hot and humid air mass that has been in place. As of 4:30 AM the front was still way up to the northwest of Kansas City and still hours away. A large area of rain was forming with a few embedded thunderstorms and this area of rain was marching its way towards KC:
This area of rain with a few thunderstorms has continued to march northeastward and is heading across eastern KS into western MO. This front will pass through by early this afternoon:
The massive change in the pattern continues
The LRC 2015-2016 pattern continues on its final cycle in LRC Cycle 8. We are likely experiencing a hybrid pattern right now where there is a little of the old and a little of the new all mixed in. The old patterns identity seems to still be dominating today, but the new patterns identity seems to be taking over on the models during these next ten days. It is really incredibly fascinating. This storm system is looking so much like the Thanksgiving weekend part of the pattern from last year, but it seems to all fade away during the next ten days. We have to be very patient as this does happen every year, and the models are all over the place on solutions. It is a series of zero hours (todays actual data, then tomorrows actual data, day by day). It isn’t what the models say that count at all. How will we know when it is different? That is a tough one, but let me take you all through it and we will experience this together. Our forecast for September based on the LRC 2015-2016 LRC has been close to spot on with a warm September over much of the nation, and the near to above average rainfall pattern.
September Temperature Anomaly
Something interesting did change a bit in September. The northwestern part of the United States has been cooler than average, as you can see above, including another area of the southwestern United States. The southwestern cooler anomaly is directly related to the tropical systems that affected this region cooling off the deserts a bit.. You can also see that a good 80% of the nation had above average temperatures with the eastern third having much above average.
Last 30 Days Precipitation Anomaly
Rainfall wise, it was wet across the corn belt and fairly dry across much of the southeast into the northeastern United States.
It will be quite fascinating to monitor what happens to the pattern in these next two weeks. I have not just experienced this during the past 30 years of monitoring it, but we can go and back check every other year from the 1950s to now and it happens every year. The new LRC begins sometime during the first week or so of October.
Have a great Sunday! Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let me know if you have any questions.
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