Get your 12 Week Forecast

LRC Forecast Experience

The Gary Lezak Weather Blog

Quiet Saturday Across The USA

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The monsoon moisture continues to track across the southwestern United States and western Mexico on this first morning of August. Overall, it is a rather quiet start to our eighth month of the year.  Hurricane Guillermo was over the Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii.  Here is this morning’s enhanced water vapor satellite picture taken from Weathertap.com, my favorite radar/satellite site for laptops or desktops:

1

Guillermo is going to track towards Hawaii and it will be monitored closely:

2

I have been spending the past few hours analyzing this early August weather pattern. Here we are at the weakest point of the flow across North America, and yet the pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC. As I showcased early in the week with the October 31st part of the pattern lining up with the middle of this next week, we are moving into that part of the pattern now. I have gone back and looked at all seven cycles of this year’s pattern.  This part of the pattern can be seen in each cycle. Now, we won’t get the October, December, late January, March, late April, or June versions of this pattern. We will be getting the August version. Let’s see how it sets up and I will show the comparisons in tomorrow’s blog. For now, it’s a rather quiet summer day across North America.

Have a great weekend, and thank you for participating in this LRC Forecast Experience blog.

Gary

July 31st Weather Thoughts & The Summer Monsoon

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the last day of July, 2015.  It will be a rather quiet weather day. If there is a time of the year down to the possible day where I would say it is the most likely to be the calmest day of the year, then I would choose the last day of July or the first day of August.  As we have discussed many times in the past few weeks, the jet stream reaches it’s weakest average strength and weakest average north position right now around this date. Take a look at the watch/advisory map from the National Weather Service as of this morning:

5

There are flash flood watches in effect for parts of the desert areas of Southern California into southern Nevada, and over New Mexico into western Texas.  The only heat advisories are located over the Pacific Northwest. The rest of the nation is rather quiet today.

The southwest has had a very active monsoon season. Rarely do the thunderstorms sneak over to the coastal side, but during this month it has happened several times. I grew up in Southern California, and some of my most exciting weather memories from when I was a kid is when the monsoon moisture would get into the coastal areas and bring with it a few showers and thunderstorms. Here is a lightning strike over LA taken by Harry Chandler for the LA Times on July 18th:

Lightning LA July 18 2015

And just last night lightning caused power outages in Palm Desert, CA just west of Palm Springs. The weather began to make its way into the Coachella Valley around 8 p.m. after some heavy rain hit the High Desert earlier in the day. Anyone looking toward the sky saw a massive lightning show toward the eastern valley. It was quite a lightning show last night as the monsoon moisture continues to spread in.

Here is the link to our video on the topic of the Summer Monsoon:

We will look ahead into the August pattern over the weekend. Have a great Friday, and last day of July!

Gary

The Cycling Weather Pattern Moving Into August

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to cycle from where it set up last October into early November.  If you get an understanding of this cycling weather pattern, we call the LRC, then you can have a huge weather forecasting tool in your arsenal to make accurate weather forecasts from 1 day to over 200 days into the future. This is how we are making these accurate 12 week forecasts that are now featured in the 1Weather app.  You can download it if you have an android device by going to this site:  Download the 1Weather App.  You can also get these forecasts and videos right here by putting in your zip code or city on the top of the Weather2020 site.

LRC Forecast Discussion:

Let’s begin today’s blog entry we will look at October and how it compares to this next week’s pattern:

LRC Cycle 7 August 5 GFS

The map above is a GFS forecast for mid-next week on August 5th.  And, the map below shows the same part of the cycling weather pattern from near the beginning on Halloween morning, October 31, 2014.

LRC Cycle 1 October 31

We are showcasing this example today, but this is just one snapshot in time. The entire weather pattern is cycling in the 43 to 50 day range, centered on around 46.5 days as we have been showcasing in dozens of examples since October.  October 31st happens to be 278 days before August 5th, or a 46.3 day cycle.

What we are showing you here is one small example of the cycling pattern. There are seasonal differences in strength and position of the jet stream. In October the jet stream was massively strengthening with winter approaching and the temperature contrasts growing. In late July and early August the jet stream is reaching its weakest average strength and farthest north position. The same pattern continues, but we are in very different seasons.

Just yesterday some of the models were modeling a major heat wave developing, but we knew that those models could be put into a shredder and thrown away.  This pattern has not been capable of producing a major heat wave. The corn belt will continue to have some heat, but mostly a continuation of fronts with consistent rains to help with the corn and soy bean crops. This will be the focus of our next AgExact report that will be out next week.

National Forecast Spotlight:

The national media, once again, way exaggerated the weather situation on Wednesday. If you would have watched you would have thought a major heat wave was in progress. Take a look at today’s advisories from the National Weather Service:

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 10.15.16 AM

The only heat advisories are located in a very small area from southern Arkansas south to the Texas and Louisiana coast.  There is no major heat wave. It just blows my mind every week when many media outlets just exaggerate these weather situations. If it was a strong to major heat wave, well, than that would be different. But, this summer it just isn’t happening.

Kansas City Weather:

An area of rain was healthy and continuing to produce heavy rain across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. This is yet another rare summer storm, but it fits this year’s pattern perfectly.  The rain will gradually wind down and weaken this afternoon with a rain cooled air mass in place:

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 10.34.32 AM

 

If you live near KC, look to the south. You can see the northern edge of this system in the high clouds on our southern sky.  This will stay to the south. The next chance of thunderstorms farther north will arrive Friday night into early Saturday and we will discuss this in tomorrow’s blog.

Have a great day! And, thank you for participating in today’s LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

The California Drought: Could It Get Big Relief This Winter?

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. We have breakthrough technology we are sharing with you and if you have any questions at all just let us know by participating in the comments section. We are going to begin our Weather2020 Long Range Forecasting Educational Series next Monday. If you know anyone that is interested in learning about the basics of meteorology and an introduction to how we are forecasting the weather here with our breakthrough technology, then tell them it begins soon right here.

Today, there is another rather interesting summer set-up with thunderstorms stretching from southwest Kansas to near Chicago. We will discuss this as one of our topics this morning, but we will begin with a look at the historic California drought, El Niño, and whether or not it will lead to some significant relief this winter.

The Historic California Drought Has Some Hope Of Relief This Winter:

 

Drought California July

 

California is having an historic drought.  As we move into late July and early August it is normal to go months without rain across most of California. The rainy season, or the wet season, does not usually pick up until October and the wettest three months are during the winter.  The Golden State is being tested big time right now as they have, what is likely, the most extensive and massive water infrastructure in the world.  97% of the state is having some level of drought conditions, a good percentage of which is exceptional, as you can see above.  Even though it has been what can be called a wet summer season in California due to a good supply of moisture from the summer monsoon, the relief from the drought can be described as almost near zero.  This is not the time of year where relief on any broad scale is possible.

When can relief be expected, and what are the chances?  We will begin to know these answers in October.  The LRC, the new and unique weather pattern, sets up between October 1st and November 10th and then continues to cycle through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and deep into summer before the new pattern sets up in the early fall.  We are currently still cycling through the same pattern that set up last October and November.  You can go back and look at the dozens of examples showcasing this cycling pattern, including this week’s blog entries.

El Niño has been strengthening this winter. El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters and it has been shown to have an influence on weather patterns across the world.  Every El Niño is different and just because one is strengthening now does not guarantee that California will be in the right spot to bring them drought relief. It depends on the LRC and the overall pattern and we will not know what this is until around three to four months from now.

California Rain During El Niño years:

In looking at the statistics about half of El Niño winters have above average rainfall, and the other half of them have below average rainfall.  It looks like we will be having a strong El Niño winter and in these stronger events rain is more likely to be above average, but this chance is 3 out of 5, a 60% chance of above average rainfall, but we all know that means a 40% chance of below average rainfall.

Again, and I can’t stress this more, El Niño is only one of the many influences on the cycling weather pattern.  We must see how this year’s LRC sets up. One thing to look for would be one or two stronger and wetter storm systems in California this October. We will discuss this in more detail as the new pattern begins evolving two months from now.

El Niño has a pretty good chance of being in what would be called a strong El Niño this winter. Here is the latest forecast put out by the Climate Prediction Center:

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 7.45.36 AM

We will look into the developing LRC and El Niño as the new pattern begins evolving in the next few weeks to three months. For now, as we have been discussing, the Jet Stream is reaching it’s weakest average strength and weakest average north position during this next week.  If the pattern sets up favorably for a storm track through California we will let you know. Somewhere in the southern United States will be in that storm track and we will know by mid to late fall.

National Weather Discussion:

Some monsoon moisture was spinning around the southwestern states with showers and a few thunderstorms over southern Arizona and New Mexico this morning. And, you can see the band of thunderstorms forming along and behind a summer cold front stretching across Kansas, northern Missouri, into southern Wisconsin this morning:

1

 

The summer monsoon, the seasonal flow of tropical moisture into the southwestern United States, has at times been diverted east. Look at the connection of the summer monsoon moisture to the summer cold front that is now slowing down as it moves into Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and Missouri.

2

We have had risks of severe weather, seemingly, all summer long. Today there is not a slight risk at this moment. Here is the risk from the Storm Prediction Center:

day1otlk_1300

Kansas City Weather Discussion:

Rain and a few thunderstorms were moving across the KC metro area early this morning.  Here is the radar image from 5 AM:

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 5.01.52 AM

The rain will weaken in the next few hours. The clouds will continue for a while and KC will get some big relief from the heat today.  Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Have a great Wednesday and let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Late July Severe Weather Risk

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. We are going to begin our Weather2020 Long Range Forecasting Educational Series next Monday. If you know anyone that is interested in learning about the basics of meteorology and an introduction to how we are forecasting the weather here with our breakthrough technology, then tell them it begins soon right here.

The weather pattern continues to cycle in the 45 to 50 day range. Yesterday we showcased the pattern from June and now at 49 days apart. The jet stream is now at it’s weakest average strength and weakest average north position. In the next two weeks the jet stream will begin it’s slow strengthening as the overall pattern begins to change. Yes, the new LRC will begin evolving soon, but the old pattern continues to dominate deep into September. As these changes begin to take place we will begin looking for our first fall cold front. I think that a hint of one will happen late in August. Between now and then it’s summer time!

1

Look closely at that 588 line. That is the 5,880 meter line or it shows that the pressure all along that line is 500 mb at the 5,880 meter level. The pressure is 500 mb over Kansas City a bit higher up at 5, 940 meters. Notice how there is only that one 594 line south of the 588 line. This shows how weak the flow aloft is across the southern two thirds of the USA. That is a strong summer storm moving across the North Dakota/Canada border and it will drag a cold front through the heat in the plains and Great Lakes later today and tonight.

There is a risk of severe weather today as the energy aloft tracks over the hot and humid air mass ahead of the front. Here is the slight risk from the Storm Prediction Center:

day1otlk_1200

For Kansas City this will mean a very hot day with highs approaching 100 degrees. Then, thunderstorms are likely in the area after around midnight tonight. Cooler air will arrive Wednesday.  Have a great Tuesday. Let us know if you have any questions and thank you for participating in this LRC Forecast Experience Blog.

Gary

Jet Stream Reaching Weakest Average Strength

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We are going to begin our Weather2020 Long Range Forecasting Educational Series one week from today. If you know anyone that is interested in learning about the basics of meteorology and an introduction to how we are forecasting the weather here with our breakthrough technology, then tell them it begins soon right here in this LRC Forecast Experience Blog.

The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC.  This pattern will begin a very slow transition into next year’s LRC in the next few weeks. The jet stream is now reaching it’s weakest average strength, and this can be seen in the LRC Index blend. Notice how the amplitude of the index has been decreasing in the past few weeks:

LRC INDEX BLEND AUGUST 1

The jet stream is caused and created by temperature contrast. The temperature contrast reaches it’s weakest point in late July and early August, and it reaches it’s strongest point in late January into early February.  I am talking about the contrast from northern Canada to Mexico. In the summer, right now, the temperatures may be in the 40s over Canada and lower 100s over the southern United States. This is around a 60 degree contrast. During the winter it can go from -50° over northern Canada to the 90s over northern Mexico. This stronger temperature contrast drives the jet stream strength and position.

And, now that we are at the weakest point of the jet stream we can still see that the pattern is the same. Look at the next two maps:

LRC Cycle 7 July 29 LRC Cycle 6 June 10

These two 500 mb plots are form June 10th, the second map, and the forecast for July 29th in a couple of days.  This is from LRC Cycle 6 and where we are now in LRC Cycle 7.  There will be an eighth cycle of this years LRC in September, but then it will end and a new pattern will set up by early October. For now, it’s more of the same.

The pattern will act differently in this seventh cycle. What will those differences be? We will go over the details in the next few days.

Have you entered the Weather2020 Long Range Forecasting Contest? Here is the link:  Enter The Contest.  The winner will receive a $100 visa gift card. Good luck!

Gary