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Arctic Blast Coming In At Midnight

Good late night, or early morning,

Take a look at this cold front at 10:30 PM.  This is the most dramatic front of the season, and it will sort of go by unnoticed as there is no precipitation associated with it.  The winds are about to pick up big time with temperatures dropping:


This cold air is now firmly in place on this Sunday morning.  Temperatures have dropped to 14 degrees and there have been a few snowflakes flying through the cold air.  This week will feature some ups and downs and there is one possible storm system that will spread snow across the plains. Will this system take aim on Kansas City, or track to the north across Iowa like most of the models have been hinting at. It will depend on a series of waves coming into the western part of North America during  the next 48 hours.

We just can’t get into the right spot for these storm systems this season. And, it has been quite consistent. Last week’s storm was a nice one for us to track, but it was still frustrating, at least it was for me.  For this one to not be frustrating we will need a strong wave to drop southwest of Kansas City, and this has not been the trend in the models.


The energy that we will be tracking is just entering the picture on Monday way, way off to the northwest in the Gulf of Alaska as you can see above.

2Where will this go from here?  This is the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 AM Tuesday morning and the disturbance is now on the east side of a ridge that is building a bit over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The energy is about to go through another transition, however, and it will make our weather forecast difficult at best. What is going to happen with this disturbance by New Year’s Day?

As it moves southeast we may go back into the warm air with another reorganization of the Arctic air mass that will then be blasting our way again by January 1, 2014.

The latest NAM model tracks most of the snow to our north with another warming trend ahead of this system. We will be tracking this system for the next few days.

Saturday was actually a rather interesting weather day. Check out the picture I took around 2 PM:


That is a precipitating high based altocumulus cloud with a rain/snow shaft extending below the cloud base.  And, the rays from the sun create a beautiful naturalness to this picture, if that makes sense.

Have a great Sunday! Thank goodness the Chiefs game is in San Diego as it would have been brutally cold to tailgate this morning.



  1. low clouds and a howling northwest wind here in St. Joe!

  2. Yup, a chilly wind when I opened the front door up this morning. Gray and windy, definitely back to feeling like winter again.

  3. any new information on the storm for this week
    yesterday the map show what appeared like northern kansas could get hit
    nws not saying much yet –

  4. brrrrrrr! From the Farmers Almanac.
    1st-3rd. Showers, then much colder Great Plains.
    4th-7th. Snow showers and fog.
    8th-11th. Big storm brings heavy snow or wintry mix.
    12th-15th. Frigid Arctic air pours out of Canada.
    16th-19th. Generally fair, noticeably milder thanks chiefly to Chinook winds.
    20th-23rd. Clear, cold.
    24th-27th. Colder temperatures over Northern Plains, shifts east.
    28th-31st. Remaining very cold.

  5. As this is a most dissapointing weather pattern for precipitation and storm lovers in our area; will these fronts bring refreshing air in the summer? Hopefully the warmuos thus spring won’t get a brutal setback
    With this Artic crud!!

    It was extremely muddy yesterday with the snow and ice melt from the last 3 days; be careful of the refereeing in or on your driveway,

  6. Currently having a light snow flurry here in Paola.

  7. Where is the fantasy storm for Jan 18th? Are you expecting a January thaw for a few day in a row?

  8. Sun pooping out now, but 12 outside bite me wind. This clipper for mid week would be nice if it did a 100 mile southwestern dive.

  9. a friend was telling me that this storm around the 18th was going to be a two day event
    starting in the southwest corner of kansas and slowly moving northeast – a huge snow maker
    so gary with all the weather tools you have (lrc weather models etc…) please tell us WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THIS??????

    • Gary Lezak

      The stormy part of the cycling weather pattern that created the conditions for the severe weather outbreak on November 17th will be cycling back through between the 10th and the 17th.

  10. Can someone posts some links of what people are saying about the potential storm around the 18th? So many posts talking about it the last week. Would like to read what you guys are reading.


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