Catastrophic Flooding Possible from Florence

/Catastrophic Flooding Possible from Florence

Catastrophic Flooding Possible from Florence

Good Thursday bloggers,

Florence was moving northwest at 17 mph on Wednesday. Now, it is moving west-northwest at 5 mph. This slow down was expected, but it is the slow movement that is going to cause issues. Yes, wind will be a problem, but the rain and flooding will be the biggest problem as rainfall at the rate of 1″ to 2″ per hour will fall most hours for two days across North Carolina and northern South Carolina.

Florence is about 100 miles east of Wilmington, NC  Thursday evening. So, at present course and speed it will arrive on the coast around 1020 AM Friday morning. The bands of heavy rain are now inland so, here we go.


FRIDAY 7 AM: Florence will be near the coast, dumping torrential rain as the eye wall moves very slowly. This will also keep the wind going at 50-80 mph with higher gusts, hour after hour.


SATURDAY 7 AM: 24 hours later Florence will have drifted southwest about 75 miles. The wind will be weakening as the rain continues at ludicrous rates.


SATURDAY 7 PM: The storm will be drifting west through South Carolina and you can still see bands of torrential rain in southern North Carolina.


RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: 20″-40″ of rain is likely across much of North Carolina and northern South Carolina. Amounts near 50″ would not be a surprise, so this is setting up to be a catastrophic event.


Florence will track into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys early next week before it exits the USA through New England. This will bring .25″ to 2″ of rain, so some minor flooding will be possible in those locations, as Florence will be weaker and moving much faster. Heavy rain will occur across Oklahoma and Texas as tropical moisture heads north. This moisture may create an isolated shower over the weekend around here, but we are keeping the forecast dry.


Now, back here in our part of the world, a cold front will be heading south early next week. It will likely arrive by the middle and end of next week. This will increase our rain chances. Ahead of the front we will see chances of isolated showers and T-Storms as the tropical moisture to the south drifts north.


Florence is not the only game in town. We have 4 named systems in the Atlantic. Joyce and Helene will not be a factor for the USA. Isaac on the other hand needs to be watched for next week as it weakly tracks west through the Caribbean Sea. It could become an issue in the Gulf of Mexico.


Have a great night and Friday.

Jeff Penner

2018-09-15T08:54:10+00:00September 13th, 2018|General|8 Comments


  1. Richard September 13, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

    Check out a map to see where New Bern NC is.
    Not directly on the coast. But on an inlet.
    Just saw a video that it is already flooding due to storm surge.
    And Florence has not even made landfall yet.

  2. Rockdoc September 13, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

    For those looking for more indepth discussion on the internal dynamics of the storm, you can check out this site. It’s not overly technical but will give you a flavor of the internal changes that go on. If you’re on twitter, you can follow Mark Sudduth @hurricanetrack

    • Richard September 13, 2018 at 8:35 pm - Reply

      Thanks for that. Looked at it.
      So apparently he lives in Wilmington. And stayed. Its going to be a long haul.
      And he retweeted an explanation of the ” weakening” of Florence, along with a set of graphics.
      Here’s what
      ‘s structure change does to wind forecasts (from NWS). Left image is yesterday AM forecast, right image is current. Florence didn’t weaken, it redistributed its energy in a way not reflected in category. Bigger storm now MORE impactful (esp OBX)!

  3. Heat Miser September 13, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply


  4. Richard September 13, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    This is the guy Rockdoc mentioned. Mark Suddath. Hurricane hunter extraordinaire. 430,000 miles on his Chevy Tahoe since 2003.

    “Think Florence is less dangerous because it is “weaker”? Think again…”

  5. Anonymous September 13, 2018 at 9:19 pm - Reply

    Bastardi just rips manmade climate change. Humdud needs to read

  6. Not buying everything September 13, 2018 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    Bastadi just tore up man made climate change today, it was awesome!!!! humdud should give it a listen

  7. Snow Miser September 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm - Reply

    I think the biggest danger in this hurricane is, not that it’s particularly strong, but that it’s so slow moving. Some parts look like they’re going to get pounded continually for a couple days or more.

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