Where Will Powerful Hurricane Florence Track?

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Good morning bloggers,

Hurricane Florence is still a CAT 4 hurricane this morning.  It will be moving over very warm waters and as it approaches the coast on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night it may slow down a bit. The steering currents weaken considerably by Thursday. The momentum of the west-norwest movement will likely still take this system and blast the Carolina coast. The track shifted a bit south on the last model runs. Let’s look at these first two pictures that show last night at 10 PM and this morning:

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Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 7.50.13 AM

As shown above, there are three tropical storms in the Atlantic, and there is another one approaching Hawaii.  There is also a disturbed area near the Yucatan Peninsula.  We are at the peak of hurricane season, and this year it is living up to its reputation. It is ridiculously active right now.  The track of each of these systems is challenging.  The exact track is rather important as the impacts will be significant.  Look at all of the tracks from ensemble runs of the computer models:

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Most of the models slow down the system and try to loop it around. This hurricane is going to have some fascinating twists that will have high impacts on effects on the ground.  I will be doing a Facebook Live tonight around 8 PM.  Join in if you would like.

Florence

Olivia

While Maui is in the path of a weakening tropical storm Olivia, North and South Carolina are in mandatory evacuation orders from Major Hurricane Florence.  Let’s see how the models trend today.

In Kansas City, there is no chance of rain for quite some time. The LRC has three weeks left, and then we will welcome a brand new pattern. I am so ready.  Have a great day.  You can join in the conversation on the Weather2020.com blog.

Gary

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RockdocRichardBlue FlashAdamSnow Miser Recent comment authors
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Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Got a response on my tweet earlier today and Gary said the hurricane would not stall longer than 6-8 hours, which is contrary to current model guidance and NHC. Me, I think it sits and spins for 24 to 36 hours before moving down SC coast and then turning inland. Four to five day event possible.

Richard
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Richard

Hmm….Gary being conspicuously quiet.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Because he is gone. As in not working tonight on air.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Excellent writeup on the effects of the steering winds and track of the storm. Still uncertainties beyond Friday into Saturday. https://blog.weather.us/major-hurricane-florence-set-to-arrive-in-north-carolina-tomorrow-longer-term-track-remains-uncertain/ National Hurricane Center not willing to call track beyond Friday in terms of where the track goes. They’re pretty sure it will slow down and spin dumping massive amounts of rain, wind with huge storm surge on top of several high tides. They’re waiting for new data later this afternoon. Maybe there will be more consensus with the ensembles. I think models are having issues resolving the high pressure area over the midwest and timing/strength of when it (steering… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

In recent days the blog writeup comes later and is shorter.
Gary is a busy man.

Snow Miser
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Richard
Guest
Richard

Snow
I got a popup that says
This is page and its data are currently undergoing active development. This interface is currently meant to be use on a DESKTOP PC ONLY, with a preferred resolution of 1920×1080 or greater. A mobile friendly version will be developed at a later time.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Well, that’s what you get for trying to view stuff on your phone. 😛

Adam
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Adam

It’s not mobile friendly. Comments are easier to read when there’s a long chain of replies in landscape on a phone.

Adam
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Adam

Lol, I meant weather 2020 then I clicked the above link.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

A photo of Florence from outerspace
comment image

Richard
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Richard

Gary on facebook live. “The models have varying solutions for Florence, but the models don’t know, because they are based on the weather pattern of today. But I have a good idea what is going to happen, because the pattern changes daily. The pattern on Thurs/Friday will be different than today”
Ok, Gary, so, what IS going to happen with Florence, according o the LRC ? I was hoping you would tell us facebook viewers.

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

Gary already said the other day that the LRC forecast is 55% likely that Florence curves back out to sea rather than making landfall.

If you believe the LRC, then maybe all these horrific forecasts indicating doom and gloom are just hype?

Richard
Guest
Richard

This close to the event, and doing a facebook live, I thought he would tell his fb viewers. Maybe not everyone on there reads the blog.
And yesterday/today he has not told us on the blog what he thinks. Unless I missed something ?
I hope it goes back out to sea !

Mike
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Mike

LRC forecast is 55%? We can forecast it almost the same chance by flipping the coin.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

But according to the models, such a scenario is probably less than 10% likely, a significant difference from 55%. If it did curve back to sea, that would be another significant accomplishment for the LRC.

Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

We are so lucky to have local meteorologists who will go into great depth talking about major weather events happening elsewhere. The hurricane coverage by Gary and Joe L of Fox 4 have been unbelievable!

Richard
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Richard

Yes, we are lucky.
As for blogs, JL has gone into greater depth. I think he has more time than Gary. And he is a statistics nerd. (In a good way)

hoopsA1
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hoopsA1

so what is the LRC prediction for the storm thats headed into the gulf of mexico? will it turn into a hurricane? will it hit teaxs?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

looking at the most recent radar….colors are deepening around the eye A LOT!!!! I do believe it is intensifying.

Craig
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Craig
Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

COOL…Facebook Live!

Richard
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Richard

” The GFS model is likely to be replaced to start 2019 by a model called the FV3…which has been more consistent and seemingly more realistic with it’s portrayal of intensity etc with this storm. One meteorologist took a deeper dive into WHY the GFS model may be performing poorly with it’s forecast. It all comes down to microphysics. “

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser
Richard
Guest
Richard

Thanks Snow !

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

The latest version of that has it hanging out just off – and right along – both the NC and SC cost for over 50 hours. That’s more than 2 days. If that comes true, imagine what a Category 3-4 hurricane lasting two days will do to the coast there?

Richard
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Richard

Catostrophic coastal erosion.
That sucker is 400 miles across ! Will it still be that big if it indeed ends up stalling that long ?