The Same Pattern Has Four Weeks Left

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Good morning bloggers,

6

A steadily growing area of rain is drifting northeast across Kansas.  It will be a wet and rainy day in KC with a few spots receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain.  The heaviest rain early this morning was located over southern Kansas with a disturbance spinning around.  The same pattern continues to cycle, and we can go all the way back to the beginning of this pattern in cycle 1. Look at the satellite picture from that day:

image2

And, look at our forecast from this October 10th day:

image1

These pictures were taken from what I wrote 342 days ago, or exactly on cycle from the 47-48 day cycle, and remember, Hurricane Nate had just come inland a few days earlier in almost the exact spot the Tropical Storm Gordon tracked.

A new and unique pattern will be setting up in a few weeks, and for now, it is still the same, just the September version.  The rain was increasing as I was writing this. Here is the KC timeline:

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy with rain likely 1″ is also likely with local amounts up to 2 inches possible.  Temperatures will be dropping to 65°.
  • Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle or rain likely.  Low:  59°
  • Saturday: Cloudy and cool with some drizzle or very light rain. High:  63°

This forecast looks rather similar to the cycle 1 version of the pattern. Pretty fascinating, right?  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Hockeynut69Heat MiserMike HolmKurtMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

The storm this week did appear to be the old LRC. We heard 1-3” most of the week and in my area received .5” at best over the last 72 hours. Not quite poof, but certainly underperformed compared to the forecasts of all the local forecasts.

Kurt
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Kurt

I am puzzled why St. Joseph has a reporting station for precipitation totals if it is wrong or what? YTD is only 12.9 inches on the NWS site. That can’t be right…now way St. Joseph is 14.9 inches down YTD that’s incredible, yet this is a hit or miss pattern, but wow.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

This isn’t going to fill any ponds. At least in the metro…

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I don’t know Pete. I’m in the metro and received as of right now 4.5 inches since Tuesday. That’s a pond filler to me.
.3 Tuesday
2.70 Wednesday
.25 Thursday
1.25 Friday…still raining

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Lucky!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

OMG look at the rainfall totals for this weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/pws%3AKKSSPRIN10

Richard
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Richard

Flash flood warning Miami and Linn counties

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Funny your targeted advertisements! Headypattern.com is now available to purchase!

Conspiracy???

Richard
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Richard

This morning were you talking about the Heady domain no longer existing ?

Richard
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Richard

(On yesterdays blog/this morning )

Richard
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Richard

Just curious. Was there ever a Headypattern dot com ?
Why are you mentioning Heady on here. No big deal. But funny if it flopped.

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm
MikeL
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MikeL

Looking at the radar, the heavy precip has set up just southeast of me (in SW Topeka) and reminds me of how the snow just misses me so often in the winter in the same way. So I’m glad to hear this is the same LRC and hope the coming new LRC gives better results.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Hmmm…..flash flood warnings for Miami and Linn counties in KS in an area that wasn’t in the FF watch. I’m right on the verge of the heaviest training and I am grateful we aren’t getting the deluge of rain, at least not yet.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Very interesting radar returns. Looks like an easterly flow running into and against a south westerly flow aloft. Either way, looks like a I-35 corridor rain and getting one of last spots in KS that was hard hit by the drought.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s hitting the impenetrable force field around my farm, it refuses to move east. I thought I was going to get a flood out of this event a week ago, turns out I might not even get a measurable rain at this point.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Still waiting for the rain shield to make it into NW Vernon Co. Still sitting in same places that got multiple Inches earlier this week, still refusing to come near my farm as has been case all week. It is not really moving east much at all, seems like repeat of what’s happened all week long

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Friday to you sir!!! Looking at the current radar, it appears the heavier rain will miss Lawrence to the south and east; looks like mainly drizzle and light rain for this area….maybe we pick up .30 of drips and drizzle from this event but that may be a stretch. I picked up .9 on Wednesday as well. I am extremely happy that these waves have produced moisture in cycles 7 and 8 as compared to 5 and 6. I now cannot keep up with the mowing (I am mowing our neighbors as well) and the beans are doing… Read more »

Roger
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Roger

I am greatful and happy that most areas are getting wetter. However, I really hope we can get a new pattern that won’t be as dry and boring as the last 3-4 Fall and Winter seasons around these neck of the woods. These have extended into Spring as well. I can only imagine the stress put on plants and vegetation year after year.

Roger
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Roger

Sorry, I meant grateful.

Michael
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Michael

Ooops… Ignore me.

Michael
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Michael

Is it really supposed to be 42 tonight? That seems cold for this time of year?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I don’t know about that, but in Lawrence our pattern changed from dry to wet weeks ago.

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Gary you mentioned on the radio that we may be back in the 90’s late next week. Will it be like near 90 or mid 90’s? Always love the last push of summer in September but thankful that many times that kind of heat is short lived compared to July typically!

Craig
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Craig

GFS now showing Cat3 hurricane over the Delmarva and heading into Washington DC next Friday.
Will be very interesting to watch the model trends!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Is it realistic for a CAT 3 to hit that far north? If so, evacuate Trump from D.C. and I’m good with it.

Nick
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Nick

At KCI getting ready to go to Toronto, looks like a winter day with low stratus and light rain.

Michael
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Michael

SO I have recorded 4.61 inches of rain in Maryville since last Friday! The lawns are green, we are out of the drought on the latest Drought Monitor from NOAA. I was mowing at work yesterday and making one heck of a mess! Need a little sunshine and dry weather. Have a great weekend Bloggers!
Michael

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The remnants of Gordo aren’t even coming close to KC at all.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

It does not need to be an influence

Three7
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Three7

I’m assuming the rain will get heavier as the day goes along?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

There’s only 109 days until Christmas.

Johnny
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Johnny

Stop

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

You’d better start your Christmas shopping now before it’s too late.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol

Bill
Guest
Bill

OMG it is still summmmmmer! Plus I still have 7 weeks to find my adult Halloween costume!