Good morning bloggers,
Hurricane season is now in hyperdrive as we look at the bigger picture. We have Hurricanes Norman, Olivia, Florence, and more development. And, here we go again with the models. If you remember, the National Hurricane Center had a 0% chance of development for Tropical Storm Gordon, while our prediction was at 84% chance of storm development from months earlier. This time, we aren’t concerned with development as this has obviously occurred. This time we are highly concerned on the track as there are major implications depending on whether Hurricane Florence will blast the coast or curve offshore. The computer models have some scary solutions for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Take a look at this:
These are three of the models with two of them, the Canadian model and the European model bombarding populated areas of the United States, while the American GFS model showing it curving off shore after a major threat. Remember, we have a tremendous insight using the LRC. Based on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, known as the LRC, I would place a 55% chance of it curving out to sea and a 45% chance of one of those other solutions of it making landfall happening. This is the part of the pattern that ends up producing a big eastern storm, and when that happens, it will deflect the hurricane back out to sea. The question is exactly when will this happen. If it is a day or so faster it may hit the coast, and if it is a day slower it will get deflected out to sea.
The National Hurricane Center Track:
By Tuesday of next week Hurricane Florence will likely be a major hurricane and still be way off shore. The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC and again, the speed of this storm is critical. Let’s keep monitoring this. Even though I am leaning in the curving out to sea as it approaches the eastern seaboard, it is definitely something that must be monitored day by day.
The dark green areas show the Flask Flood Watches which include the KC metro area, yet we are on the edge of this watch. Look at the red around Hawaii. Are you kidding me? Hurricane Norman is very close to Hawaii and Hurricane Olivia must be monitored closely. Hawaii is obviously in a hot spot this year for activity as there have now been FOUR hurricanes throwing impacts on the islands already this season. Surf will be up. Norman will track north of the islands bringing very high surf to Hawaii.
Back west over the middle part of the nation, what is left of Tropical Storm Gordon is going to combine with another storm system to create some flooding rains. Over 2″ of rain did fall in a few spots yesterday, and in areas that really needed it.
The models have trended towards a storm developing, combining what is left of Gordon with the next storm on schedule in the cycling pattern. Yes, we are still in the same pattern for just four more weeks and then we will welcome the new LRC in October. For now, it is still more of the same, but slightly different.
The models have trended into the heaviest rain to be located over the eastern half of Missouri. Let’s see how this forms. Expect cloudy and cooler conditions in KC with periods of rain or drizzle the next three days.
Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join in the conversation over on the Weather 2020 blog.