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Good morning bloggers,

Tropical Storm Gordon will weaken to a depression today, and then go through a rather interesting transition by Saturday as the overall LRC flow (500 mb wave train aloft that is cycling according to the LRC) picks up the storm and combines with an upper level trough to create a new surface low by Saturday over Missouri.  This is a rather complex development and how it forms will decide which locations get the most rainfall later this week. Ahead of this development is a band of tropical moisture and a weak cold front moving slowly across the plains states today. Take a look at the radar images from around 7:40 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 7.36.30 AM

Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 7.33.11 AM

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain likely north and west of a Pleasanton, KS to Lone Jack, MO to Chillicothe, MO line. South and east of this white line shown above will likely get missed by most of todays rain, and this is the target of the main storm developing by Saturday, however.  Temperatures in the 70s.
  • Tonight: Scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms.  Low:  67°
  • Thursday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
  • Friday-Saturday:  Much cooler with highs in the 60s with rain likely, heaviest south and east of I-35

Here is the rainfall forecast from the latest GFS model run:

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The prediction of Gordon to form and track where it did was precisely done by Weather2020 8 months ago by applying the LRC technology.  One point I will make today. Our analytics had an 84% chance of a storm to form and track there by June 1.  The National Hurricane Center had 10% chance five days before. Think about that for a few minutes.  Now, what comes next? There is a 64% chance Florida will get hit by a hurricane later this month. Right now, Florence is likely not the one.  We will monitor closely, as we have had a prediction for one to threaten the southeast coast, including Florida within around two and a half weeks.

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We will see how the models trend today on the rain chances for rest of the week. Right now, the bottom of my rain gauge is bone dry. Will it overflow the 1″ tube, or is my pond going to continue to have a beach around it. Have a great day and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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KS Jones
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KS Jones

The storm’s consistent northeasterly stream since Sunday changed to a southwesterly flow in northeast Kansas yesterday afternoon. Was that because of interaction with the counterclockwise movement of the tropical storm?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Funny how the very same system that produces prolific rain over MN/NE/IA/C KS washes out when it gets here giving us one day of rain and then zips on by. We can’t even get a tropical system to give us rain. Models showed one thing but what happened was the same old, same old. We get barely enough to keep things green. The storms are from a different angle (southwest) but the end result is generally the same – nothing glaringly different yet. Guess the new LRC is still only just slightly influencing the pattern. The fact the front did… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Don’t know where you were at yesterday but it rained almost all day in most of the metro. I got 1.5″ in s. OP 123rd and Antioch.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yesterday was a rain day but the only day that will be rainy. Me and my wife just got back from Iowa on Monday – it rained 4 days straight up there. The system as I said just zipped on by giving us only 1 day of rainfall. Today doesn’t look too promising.

Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

Models seem to be backing off on rain amounts … POOF watch in effect?

getmbuck
Guest
getmbuck

Olathe 131st and BlackBob ending the day at 1.42 inches. Grass seed planted Saturday in a very good soil area just germinated ! Hope the moisture train continues here but my farm in Coffey County Kansas received 5 inches and runoff in our main pond overtopped the dam. Guess we need to unclog the spillway pipe, who would have thought that would be an issue a month ago?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Have gotten 6.32″ of rain since it started raining Sunday evening. The Big Blue is flooding, and the road that passes through our farm is 8′ under water north of here and 4′ under water south of here. Have to drive a mile through our pasture to a township road that takes us over the bluffs to get to towns.
Hope that was worded properly, and I don’t owe any syntax. (ha)

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

143rd and Switzer exactly 3 inches. 2.7 today and .3 yesterday. That’s enough here for a while.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Overland Park.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Can’t remember a day like this recently where it has rained legit all day in the metro. We need a system like this over the winter…

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Or mabye a couple

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The rain finally made it east to Independence, and we have picked up 0.9″ today.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Still can’t get anything appreciable at the farm in NW Vernon Co. A shower earlier, less than tenth, huge shield of rain to my east is rapidly diminishing. Always going to be a big rain in a few days, just never gets around to doing it. Not convinced in slightest Gordon will give me much rain either, maybe a few more showers. Been waiting since June to get enough rain to get creek running again, still waiting

Larry
Guest
Larry

Some rain is better than nothing in parched NW Lawrence. My rain gauge (overnight through 3:30 PM) has 0.86″. Lawrence is still 11.63″ below average. It appears Gordon is going to miss eastern Kansas.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Had a brief tornado touchdown up here last night along with another 3 in of rain. Hopefully we start to dry out up here and fall can settle in. Some trees have begun their fall foliage.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Touchdown ? Damage ?
Yeah, you have really had the rain. R those rails back in use yet ?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yes Richard. A very brief touchdown and minor damage. One main is back open but the other we r still Workin on. Hard to catch up as the rain last night caused 5 more washouts south of the previous ones. Drier conditions for the foreseeable future will help

Richard
Guest
Richard

My older brother worked /retired from the Rock Island here in KC. Machinist. He passed a few yrs ago.
I have a nephew who is engineer on BNSF here.
And my brother-in-law worked for the Alaska RR for years too.

Trainman
Guest
Trainman

Love the RI

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Def a change for the better, hope this wet pattern gives EVERYONE the rain they need!!

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

oh my, maybe for the Kansas folks this is great, but this rain event again proved to be extremely underwhelming and not overly beneficial for us. last night Gary wrote “By the time I write the blog in the morning it may be about as an exciting of radar I have seen in a long time.” 🙁 🙁 🙁 same results now as we have seen all year. I am watching the radar dry up. maybe Saturday? To be honest, I don’t care about what the models predict. We have a precedence set that the rain will not be that… Read more »

Nate
Guest
Nate

When is this heavy rain coming to wash out the algae from my pond? Until then, the drought is still on

Richard
Guest
Richard

JoeK,
The rain today is not associated with Gordon. (Repeating what Gary said last night on air).
What cycle/part of the pattern does this front line up with ?
I am not good at going back, looking at the archives as a lot of you.
Thanks

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Richard,

You are correct, the system today is related to the system we experienced July 17th and 18th that dropped over 4 inches of rain ( at KCI). This time around, there was more available moisture that has allowed for a more widespread event. Of course, there are so many other dynamics at play, changes in the jetstream AKA seasonal variances, but the systems are related or appear to be from my prospective

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thanks Joe

Richard
Guest
Richard

Hey Joe
Are you the one who talked about growing sorghum awhile back ?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Yes, a family tradition that has been passed down. We use steam to cook with. A pretty neat experience!

Rod
Guest
Rod

Gary: you mentioned there was a 64% chance have a hurricane hitting Florida or the southeast United States in the next 2-3 weeks. I’m going on a beach vacation to Saint Augustine in around two weeks & staying in an ocean front home. What specific date range did you predict a system could impact FL. Thanks

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Is Saturday night looking dry? Big concert at Arrowhead.

Chiefs
Guest
Chiefs

When is the next bout of rain supposed to come in to make up for that 3 and a half inches that was forecasted for my area?heavy rain all around me with a hole directly over head.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Ask Jeeves

Nick
Guest
Nick

Socked in with steady heavy tropical rain in St. Joe. 😀

birdieman
Guest
birdieman

Seriously, what ever you want to call Gary’s LRC, it’s only nominally more accurate than what dan Henry, fred broski, etal would say back in the day. There are seasonal predictions that play out most years with the occasional anomaly related to changes in the jet stream, el nino, etc. Still 50/50 chance the forecast plays out as predicted

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

A good post. The theory, with work, can be a lot better and made more useful but it, as I said earlier, is going to take time.

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

It’s been raining here in south OP (123rd/Antioch) since around 7am, at times much lighter than others. Has literally poured for a while a few times. Nice soaking rain. Also, congrats on your TS Gordon prediction Gary. It has kept TWC busy for at least 48+ hours.

Max
Guest
Max

Gary, Based on what you know so far, do you expect the rest of the 2018 hurricane season to be a busy one or not?

birdieman
Guest
birdieman

Drought! Sky is falling! Floods! Sky is falling! My 80 by 130 lawn/farm was too dry, now it’s too wet!!! Sky is falling!! Run to the light carolann!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

So..much….rain…….

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

Winter is coming

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Bring it!!!!

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Right now in midtown-vsby 2.5SM RW+, pouring and I love it!

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

Raining in GV

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’m looking at the rain out my window and imagining what it would be like if it were snow. :-/

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

It finally came east and I am getting some beneficial rain. the grass seed is going to love this type of rain.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

143rd/Switzer….quickly approaching 2 inches. Got under a tiny one yesterday that gave us about .3.

Bill
Guest
Bill

These storms are incredibly efficient rain producers. Love it. Although i will say I’m expecting localized flooding aka avoid KCMO/Westport for the rest of the week 😂

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

Really feeling that the east side of town is gonna get missed on this round, out in Grain Valley.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Good slug of rain headed your way now…

Chiefs
Guest
Chiefs

I see they expected the flash flood watch down by Wichita. Is there a possibility that they do that around our area too?

Chiefs
Guest
Chiefs

Extended

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

EAX said they will likely do so in the next 24 hours as the track of Gordon becomes more obvious. Something similar to what went on earlier this week in northern Kansas might occur in central Missouri.

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

Gary —

You posted just a 64% chance of a hurricane making landfall on Florida . . .

But you previously said there was a 90% chance of a hurricane hitting Florida this year.

https://vimeo.com/266592686

You also said you know “where when, why, and how strong” – can you share that here?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

“The prediction of Gordon to form and track where it did was precisely done by Weather2020 8 months ago by applying the LRC technology.”

Nit-picking: The LRC is not a “technology.” “Technology” is a machine or a piece of software. The LRC is not a machine or a piece of software, it’s a theory on cycling patterns of the atmosphere. Calling the LRC a piece of “technology” would be like calling ENSO a “technology” which clearly it isn’t.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Snow Miser,

Technology refers to methods, systems, and devices which are the result of scientific knowledge being used for practical purposes. This defines the LRC perfectly.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Or for evil purposes. Just depends on who’s got their hands on what technology. This theory of course can be used for great good once it’s developed and refined, but that will be some time from now.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Let me put it this way: Is the LRC something Gary could patent? Obviously not, you can’t patent a description of of an atmospheric cycling pattern. The LRC is a scientific theory, not a technology. You can’t patent a scientific theory. That would be like Einstein trying to patent the Theory of Relativity, which obviously he couldn’t do. If it’s not something you could potentially patent, then it’s not a “technology.”

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

You’re right of course, Mr. Heady is doing the same thing.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Does it really matter that much to you? I sure hope I don’t make a spelling mistake in a post. I’m sure you would correct it.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

As I said in my first comment on the topic, yes, it’s nit-picking. It’s just a silly use of the term “technology” IMO. That said, if we’re going to talk about scientific theories, which is what we spend a lot of time doing here, we might as well practice being as precise as we can – correct? That includes being precise on grammar (and yes, I do frequently point out people’s spelling mistakes). Once you start slacking off on grammar, you get used to being lazy, and before you know it, you’re getting lazy on everything, scientific theories included. Keeping… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Snow Miser,

We agree on grammar principles! Still disagree on technology 😀 See above post and let me know what you think

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

My post below yours was already a response to it. If you aren’t talking about a man-made system or mechanism, you aren’t referring to a “technology.”

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Snow Miser,

I think you missed my post at 1109. That was the one I was referring to. As you will see, there are multiple meanings behind the term “technology”

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Correction, post @ 1053

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I am very good at the grammar aspect. However, I choose not to point out what appears to be bad grammar from others. That’s because I realize that a person may be typing on a phone that likes to change words, or where a mistake wasn’t as visible before a person hit the send button. While I tend to agree with you on grammar being important, I do not find it necessary to point out others mistakes. Perhaps the person didn’t care about a couple of small typos. The nit-picking went from nit-picking to a diatribe, in my opinion. No… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

ClassyCat,

Your stance is one of Class, respect and what seems to be a fading quality, most likely caused by a perceived anonymity in the cyber world. Correcting minor mistakes is considered rude. I do agree with Snow regarding making a legitimate attempt to use proper grammar/spelling/punctuation, but stop short of feeling the need to place myself on a pedestal by trying to knock down others over something silly as a speellingg errrror 😀

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

For the record, I don’t *always* correct everybody’s spelling mistakes, after all I do them occasionally myself. Only when people do certain really egregious ones, such as the ubiquitous its/it’s or your/you’re type errors that everybody should know but half the people don’t. It’s lazy not to know basic grammar like that IMO. The other kind that I often point out to people online are things like … I can’t tell you how many people I’ve seen write “advanced” when they mean “advance.” For people whose native language clearly isn’t English, it’s no big deal (my Japanese ex-boss used to… Read more »

Ben
Guest
Ben

The NWS is showing 5-7 inches for Chillicothe and 41 had 1.75 as of this morning. Why such a big difference?

Brian
Guest
Brian

Hopefully the farmers get the needed rain over the next few days.

Luke Bryan hit the nail on the head when he said said: “It clouds up in the city, the weather man complains.”

Personally I’m ready for some dry cool days. The humidity and wet might be my least favorite weather.