Developing Hurricane Gordon Predicted 8-months Ago

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Good morning bloggers,

This may be argued to be the best weather prediction ever made, certainly the best long range weather prediction ever made.  Take a look at this comparison of developing Hurricane Gordon and the prediction made eight months ago in front of my peers at the big AMS conference in Austin last January:

Screen Shot 2018-09-04 at 7.33.58 AM

I shared this with NBC’s Al Roker over 3 months ago:

IMG_5023 (1)

IMG_5022

As many of you who know the LRC, once Alberto formed, we knew with high confidence that Gordon would form near the same spot, and it is almost perfect.  The LRC is down to this scale of precision.  Now, what is going to happen with this system?  Let’s take a look:

1

Look closely and you can clearly see Gordon intensifying on this RGEM model. This implies that it will be a strengthening hurricane in almost the exact spot as predicted by Weather2020 8 months ago applying the LRC.  Where will it go from here?

2

As you can see on this next map, a cold front, or more stationary front by this time frame on Thursday morning, will be bending around the tropical system with an outer band of showers and thunderstorms developing.  The location that end up in this outer band may see four inches of rain just from this system. And, the remnants of Gordon are tracking northwest into Arkansas from Louisiana.  Look at what may happen next:

3

Gordon will begin to be affected by the next LRC wave in the flow. This may begin the intensification of the remnants of Gordon as it tracks into Missouri and exits rapidly Friday night and Saturday.  How will this impact KC?  Will we be left dry once again, or will we break the ice and bring some badly needed rainfall.  As close as we have been to 5″ to 10″ rainfall amounts in the past two weeks, many spots are still ridiculously dry.  My pond has a huge beach around it out my back door.  Let’s see how this sets up.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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wxfreakBillCraigMr. PeteHockeynut69 Recent comment authors
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wxfreak
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wxfreak

Gary thought you may want to see this
https://youtu.be/ZHKKKNCOWFY?t=4970

Bill
Guest
Bill

The rain seems pretty impressive so far. These cells are extremely efficient due to the high PW index which is like 2.1 or something. It almost feels tropical!

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

So far the radar is unimpressive. Rain is in the same location as yesterday. West to northwest of the metro.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Looks look we will get into the rain train tomorrow in the metro and points south. Models are hinting at training, could be flash flooding as heavy as these downpours have been. Let’s break the drought, I saw a few ponds out by De Soto last week at 50% or less, a big rain won’t hurt a thing around here

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Rare tornado warning for me here in Winona mn…been awhile since I’ve heard the sirens!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Some decent soaking rains out of this front would be nice, I’m not counting on the tropical system I think it’s going to turn northeast too quick. Comments today by the way have been top notch, always enjoy the banter as long as it doesn’t get personal because that’s chicken sh**.
Imo

Nate
Guest
Nate

So when is all of this Algae going to get washed out of my pond?

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

This has to be the new LRC. When have we have this set up previously?

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

With the exception of the hurricane, I’d say this storm is behaving very much like other fronts this summer that have tried to reach the metro area. The models show us getting dumped on, over 1″ is predicted for the area, then the front arrives and falls apart. It happened again this afternoon (although the front took a couple of extra days to get here compared to what was forecasted).

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

TRUMP

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

You might want to check to see what causes your syndrome.
https://www.livescience.com/33384-tourette-syndrome-people-curse-uncontrollably.html

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ROFL….just as long as you don’t suffer from TDS, we should be good

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

LOCK HIM UP^

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Without responding to any one person, I must say I find it comical, the number of people that obviously cannot stand the fact the LRC was right. The lack of objectivity should amaze me, but with the current societal climate, I can’t say that I am surprised. I guess the RESIST movement extends to that which we don’t understand. Bottom line, there is validity to the LRC and its ability to identify weather patterns. No amount of criticism nor trolling can change that.

Bill
Guest
Bill

No one is saying that they can’t stand the LRC was right. There just has not been much, if any, explanation about the pattern. The way I look at it is that Gary made a prediction that a system would hit in July and September. If it hit in July, I would be more than excited because a) hurricanes are rare in July in the gulf and b) he would be able to explain that this is a pattern. I would appreciate that he explain why it didn’t happen in July, but just September. PS – Way to bring politics… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Bill,

My statement was not political, if that is how you perceived it. You are either not an attorney, or not a very good one. I simply addressed how we are in a time of folks resisting, denying and refusing to be objective when it conflicts with their own views. And yes, plenty of folks are in fact expressing dissatisfaction that this system verified.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Bill,

What system in July? The tropical system that hit in the same spot in May/June was accurately predicted by the LRC. There has been more than adequate explanation for those that care to take the time to perform open analysis, should be easy to do for an attorney?

Bill
Guest
Bill

If you go back to the same blog in January, it references a system to form in the gulf in July. That’s all I was talking about.

Also, please stop with the personal attacks dude.

deleted
Guest

6 inches of rain..still coming down. sc nebr

you the man GARY

Larry Arnold
Guest
Larry Arnold

Gary, Congratulations on the prediction for Gordon! I’m afraid that those of us in Lawrence are going to missed again with the remnants of TS Gordon. If I am looking at the latest modeling data correctly, the trend is for Gordon to move into Missouri with rain developing on the east side to KCMO and points east. It looks like Eastern Kansas and Lawrence will miss out again on any tropical moisture. Larry

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

It’s the same pattern, just different!

Bill
Guest
Bill

Lmao. This summarizes my frustration with the LRC and how it is presented.

Craig
Guest
Craig
Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

40s showing up in mid-Sept on the latest GFS

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Not.

Baseball Mike
Guest
Baseball Mike

Good afternoon Gary

Well our noon met just threw in the towel and committed to just isolated rain here in SE Shawnee County including Topeka/Berryton through the rest of the week. So sad that this LRC has been cruel to the small region here. It has amazed me the rain amounts to the west and NW whereas these amounts used to be common nature for here. So our drought continues. I know the new LRC is here soon but will it make a difference in the precipitation?

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Jordan, I was wondering the same thing, got a brief shower Saturday morning, other than than, bone dry. Maybe some decent rain in here by tomorrow morning??

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I hope so, but it looks like the front we were supposed to get this weekend that is finally drifting toward the metro is going POOF in a hurry. Hopefully, there’s some redevelopment.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
When did Alberto occur ?
I thought Gordon was the part of the pattern that produced Nate (Oct 7-8)

https://weather2020.com/2018/01/10/a-200-day-forecast-for-a-hurricane-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Oh, and congrats !! I never doubted it. Those bold predictions are really adding up.
The Super Bowl in NJ, and the Masters were 2 big ones. But this one, by far, has more reaching implications.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

What happened to all the rain we were supposed to get this past weekend?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones
Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Is that actually supposed to make it here? It looks like it’s weakening pretty rapidly.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I don’t know where “here” is. KC ? Topeka?
How about in between? It should begin raining there this evening and continue tomorrow through Friday.
https://maps.wunderground.com/weather/us/ks/lawrence/

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Sorry, “here” for me is KCK, basically dead-center of the 435 loop.

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

Hey Gary, I thought that the tropical system Alberto formed from am extra-tropical system that worked its way under a ridge into the gulf from the west, and then developed tropical characteristics as it sat over warm water. When you made your prediction, I thought “no way will a system come in from the west that low latitude in September.” I was sure your forecast would be a bust. I was wrong. Gratz! I would like to know this though: Gordan came in as a tropical wave from the east with different characteristics altogether. Was your prediction based on conditions… Read more »

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

That should have read “non-tropical system”, not “extra-tropical system”

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary says Alberto, but I think it was Nate. Nate was Oct 7-8
He mentioned Nate in the January blog
I stand corrected if I am wrong.

https://weather2020.com/2018/01/10/a-200-day-forecast-for-a-hurricane-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

Yes, it was Nate. It developed from the remnants of a low pressure system that got pushed south around a ridge out west and then got stranded in the gulf. Gordon is from a tropical wave coming from the opposite direction.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Oh brother…..! And so it begins. Undeniably a nice accomplishment though. Looks like 15% won out this time.

Bill
Guest
Bill

I will say, I’ll offer a half-congratulations. I wouldn’t be a lawyer if I wasn’t cynical. On my extra day off, I thought I’d go back through the blogs. You predicted something around July 16th in the same January article. Yet there was no blog/statement re: the miss there. I’m not saying you don’t deserve credit, but it is difficult for me to give you a high-five when you only point out your successes and not your shortcomings. Moreover, I thought the pattern was supposed to change next month, not the end of August/early September. We have gotten more rain… Read more »

hoopsA1
Guest
hoopsA1

who is predicting Catastrophic flooding in the drought regions? i havent heard that report from any mets in the area

Bill
Guest
Bill

That is what the NWS posted this morning.

“Either way, this
scenario needs to be watched closely as it could lead to a major
flooding event with the primer mid week over the area and then the
remnants of a tropical system overhead this weekend.”

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

“It was also a cool July”
Huh?
https://weather2020.com/2018/07/13/it-finally-reached-100-degrees-at-kci-airport/
It Finally Reached 100 Degrees At KCI Airport . . . Downtown KC soared to 103° and Lawrence, KS got up to 104°.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Well we had several sub 90s and sub 80 days between 7/1 and 8/1.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

We finished the month of July slightly above average, with one day below 80 at 76 degrees.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

All I know is for Lawrence, the “pattern” has been much wetter as of late. Congrats on the Hurricane forecast Gary. Near Florida…check. Close to Labor Day…check. Intensity…check. You are a weather God Sir! :-O

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Tuesday to you sir!! I have not been able to participate much lately and this will continue for quite some time (I’m sure many will not mind…no Gibbonesque Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire type posts to muddle through!! LOL) However, I had to briefly say major kudos and congrats on the Gordon forecast!!!! For me, it is not about the LRC as much as it is about how you and the team have so honed your skills using the LRC and have began to see all the nuances present. You have worked so hard and with… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Looks like this thing popped up pretty quickly so I’ll rescind my criticism from a few days ago. That said, it’s a little farther west and probably a couple days later than Gary expected, so I’ll give it a B.

Anyway, am I the only one who’s noticed the same corridor in KS seems to be getting all the rain the past few days?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

No, you’re not the only one who has noticed. This is the third consecutive day of intermittent rain here. Have gotten only 0.3″ so far today, but it all adds up, and due to flooding on the Blue, the road 1/2 mile north of here is forecast to be under 1.5′ of water by 8 AM tomorrow. The 0.3″ we’ve gotten so far today brings our total since Sunday to 5.41″ and the forecast says we’ll snag another 1.5″ from now through Friday. An area 12 miles northwest of here (Alcove Spring) recorded 11″ Sunday, and that’s even more than… Read more »

Michael
Guest
Michael

I recorded a whooping 3.69″ since Friday up here in Maryville, MO. I am going to mow today, as it might be the only chance this week! Things are definitely green up around here! #DroughtBusted!
Michael

Steve
Guest
Steve

Gary, With the morphing of this LRC will this in any way affect the new forming LRC? Thanks.

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

The whole premise of your forecast is that the weather cycles.

Where was this system 47 days ago, in mid-July?!?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Conditions aren’t as favorable for tropical development at that time of year. Fact is he made this prediction for early September and it happened. Period, end of story.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Was going to offer congrats on the verified fcst, but he has already self congratulated so moving on-I said I would be impressed if this verified and it did and I am. Hope everyone in NOLA and Mobile make it through this alright. Someone yesterday mentioned a concern for rapid intensification like Katrina did so hope that does not happen. Also yesterday someone else was poo pooing the power of a strong TS or Cat 1, saying not a big deal. Obviously he’s never been through a tropical storm if he’s saying crap like that. I was in a Cat… Read more »