Good morning bloggers,
This may be argued to be the best weather prediction ever made, certainly the best long range weather prediction ever made. Take a look at this comparison of developing Hurricane Gordon and the prediction made eight months ago in front of my peers at the big AMS conference in Austin last January:
I shared this with NBC’s Al Roker over 3 months ago:
As many of you who know the LRC, once Alberto formed, we knew with high confidence that Gordon would form near the same spot, and it is almost perfect. The LRC is down to this scale of precision. Now, what is going to happen with this system? Let’s take a look:
Look closely and you can clearly see Gordon intensifying on this RGEM model. This implies that it will be a strengthening hurricane in almost the exact spot as predicted by Weather2020 8 months ago applying the LRC. Where will it go from here?
As you can see on this next map, a cold front, or more stationary front by this time frame on Thursday morning, will be bending around the tropical system with an outer band of showers and thunderstorms developing. The location that end up in this outer band may see four inches of rain just from this system. And, the remnants of Gordon are tracking northwest into Arkansas from Louisiana. Look at what may happen next:
Gordon will begin to be affected by the next LRC wave in the flow. This may begin the intensification of the remnants of Gordon as it tracks into Missouri and exits rapidly Friday night and Saturday. How will this impact KC? Will we be left dry once again, or will we break the ice and bring some badly needed rainfall. As close as we have been to 5″ to 10″ rainfall amounts in the past two weeks, many spots are still ridiculously dry. My pond has a huge beach around it out my back door. Let’s see how this sets up.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.