A Tropical Storm Is Forming & It May Send Moisture To KC

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Good morning bloggers,

Happy Labor Day!  I will be working at KSHB-TV this evening and we will be tracking a developing tropical storm.  The national radar shows the developing tropical system just southeast of Miami, Fl. Also quite noticeable is a band of rain and thunderstorms extending across Kansas and Iowa and then east to near Chicago, IL.  This band of rain has been in a zone that has barely moved, and as a result a few spots have now received over 4″ of rain with another 4 to 8 inches of rain likely, which will lead to localized flooding. While all of this is going on, Kansas City continues to be in the shadow of the rain. This will be good news for Labor Day activities as the chance of rain will remain low today.

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.33.29 AM

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.34.20 AM

Tracking The Developing Tropical Storm:

  • A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border west to New Orleans
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border west to Morgan City, LA

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.19.50 AM

Tropical Storm Gordon will be named within the next 24 hours or so.  Thunderstorms, convection, have developed over and near the center of this system. When thunderstorms form near the center, there is tremendous latent heat released and this heat is what will now begin to organize and spin up this system.  South Florida is the first target as you see above with the large area of rain, torrential rainfall in the brighter orange colors.  This system will move out over the Gulf of Mexico where the water is warmer than average.  The conditions will become favorable for strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours, so just as it approaches the coast it may form into a hurricane.

092142_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Later this week, the remnants of Gordon will approach KC from the southeast. Where will it track exactly? This developing track will have an influence on our weather farther north. It may end up west of the predicted track, so let’s monitor this closely, yet this European Model shows an increase in rainfall over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. There are a few spots left that are still in drought conditions and this may be the week the finally wipes the drought out?

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.39.53 AM

For those of you paying close attention to our weather predictions, you will know this storm was predicted in January to develop now.  The LRC is applied (the peer reviewed technology proprietary to Weather2020), and this allows us to make these predictions, and also to “know” and predict the most likely path of these systems, winter storms, severe weather outbreaks, Arctic outbreaks, etc.  The National Hurricane Center is adjusting the path a bit east of yesterdays outlook and this is a more likely scenario as this will threaten the northern Gulf Coast states from new Orleans to Pensacola, FL.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  A few morning clouds and staying dry in most areas.  High:  86°.  There is a 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm with southeast to south winds 5-15 mph.
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight, 20% chance, of a thunderstorm.  Low:  71°
  • Tuesday:  Periods of clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. The chance of rain is 30%.  High:  84°
  • Wednesday:  Thunderstorms likely with heavy rain.  A few spots may get 1 to 2 inches of rain.  High:  81°
  • Thursday:  Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.  High:  74°

Have a great Labor Day, and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here and join in the conversation:

Gary

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RichardHeat MiserTimBobbieStl78(winon,mn) Recent comment authors
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Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Now that I’m done dealing with Richards tantrum….I must say that Gary’s hurricane near Florida around Labor Day….WOW…not bad Gary!!!! Must give you props on that!

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

How much rain are you expecting for Odessa?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I see tdoggs comment was removed. Hopefully, he will b as well! Sitting at 70 degrees with rain falling once again here in MN. Another 2 to 4 expected tues/wed. Nice to have Windows open at least.

Richard
Guest
Richard

And we need more rain. Feast or famine. We are not at the famine stage anymore here in JoCo, but need more.
This heat has been unrelenting since May 1. I saw 90 again tomorrow, and mid-upper 80’s into the weekend.
Sultry as all get out too.
70’s sounds real nice.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It was actually much much drier in Lawrence today Humidity wise…thank goodness…tired of all the humidity of past days. Looks like lots of potential rain from the incoming T.S. that should hit the coast and ride right on up here.

Richard
Guest
Richard

I was a believer from the get-go when Gary made that bold prediction. Never doubted it. I don’t troll. But there are those who continue to troll and are given a pass. I ask why. Heat Miser has an elitist attitude and likes to belittle. Tdogg…well Tdogg just likes to troll and is a broken record. Yawn Gary has said no trolling. But turns a deaf ear/blind eye to those two. Gary comes out to defend his hypothesis when it is challenged. But does not seem to care as much about the integrity of the blog, of what actually goes… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

And…Richard just likes to be dramatic and whine and complain a lot whether its about Gary being off by two degrees on his temperature forecast, or forecasting doom for New Orleans due to a T.S. There really isnt much difference at all between a strong T.S. and a minimal CAT 1 hurricane, and New Orleans will be just fine. That was my only point about your point, and it remains the same point. LoL..nice try.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

..and by the way Richard…challenging a comment you made isnt’ trolling, its challenging your comment. Try putting on your big boy pants and man up a bit. LoL And yes, you tend to way over dramatize things sometimes, which was my only point.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Plz someone explain to me why tdog is allowed to continue and post!! It is absolutely rediculous. I have held out hope that he would bring something of substance to this blog but no it’s the same BS, attacking the same people.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Got another burst of rain at 4:30 PM, bringing our total since yesterday afternoon to 5.02″, which puts us well above our average for the whole month of September. Our average rainfall for January to the end of September is 27.79″. Our ytd total is now 26.76″, and the forecast says we could pick up another 2″ from now through Friday. 

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yeah, a lot of people just assumed this hurricane wouldn’t happen, even LRC believers. Own up to it, guys.

Tim
Guest
Tim

Yup..

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Crow..it’s what for dinner at The Skeptics Trough.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Heat Miser
eat your words !

Heat Miser September 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm
“First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S”

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…no words to eat…my point about your point remains exactly the same.

JoeK
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JoeK
Richard
Guest
Richard

Heat Miser September 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm
First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S.. Nope, tropical storms are common on the coast and usual don’t do much damage at all. Flash flooding is the main culprit, but again, these aren’t that unusual down there…..

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Oh Richard….a strong tropical storm, a weak CAT 1…very little difference and no big deal. Stay away from low lying areas and large trees and its fine. You point was that New Orleans was doomed to suffer. My point is no, New Orleans will be just fine…its no big deal. LoL…nice try, but same argument.

Richard
Guest
Richard

# 1. You said zero chance of it becoming a hurricane. You were wrong
# 2. Stay away from low lying areas and trees. Have you ever been along the gulf coast ? It is all low lying areas. And trees ? They are everywhere.
No more to say on this matter to you.
You continue to act like a jerk
Back off.

Nick
Guest
Nick

Have a flight out of KCI at 11 am on Friday to Toronto (stopping at LaGuardia) I hope this thing doesn’t give me any issues.

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

I don’t see why rain would cause delays if it even does rain Friday.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I like these broad areas of low pressure that keep spinning up around the gulf coast and move west then nw inland. They have been there the previous 2 cycles. One is currently almost on top of Dallas.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Let it rain!!!!

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Mason – Basehor

Based on what you posted on August 31st, what are your thoughts now?

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Ask SEDS

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

tdogg,

That doesn’t make sense. I had some good dialogue with Seds yesterday. The system came together and is there. I asked Mason as he stated that there was zero chance of a hurricane on the 31st and now, looks to become a hurricane. Happy trolling K.B.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Heat Miser said “no big deal” and zero chance

Heat Miser September 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm
First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S.. Nope, tropical storms are common on the coast and usual don’t do much damage at all. Flash flooding is the main culprit, but again, these aren’t that unusual down there…..

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Hi Gary – nice job on the prediction of that storm. Do I understand you correctly that the remnants are moving up and over KC?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I hope so. This could finish off the drought for the time being.

DanT
Guest
DanT

Gary, congratulations on the prediction and verification of the tropical system. I have family near Manhattan Ks who were having a significant drought in the spring and summer. In 24-48 hours they have received close 7.75” of rain with flooding.

Tim
Guest
Tim

Gary you know I’m a straight shooter. Your LRC tropical prediction verified although a couple days late. Your LRC was right and I was wrong. What is amazing is 3 days ago the NHC had 10% chance, almost zero models had even a closed low– but the LRC showed different. Now some of the current models are indicating this could be CAT 2. I am more concerned the chances of rapid intensification..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/031227.shtml

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Tim,

This is the reason I turned from skeptic to believer, being able to predict systems such as this is astonishing! As you stated, NHC gave this almost a zero chance and the models never sniffed it out with an consistency until now. regarding the few days off, not sure I agree with you on that, but understand why you see it that way. The ability to identify a potential tropical system down to a week and geographic location is going to have major implications within the weather community. Have a good Labor Day!

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Over here in SW Topeka we have not received a drop of rain even though the NWS had a 50% chance of rain yesterday and an 80% chance last night. I followed the HRRR and radar trends yesterday and knew it wasn’t going to rain during those times. Rain can be just a few miles to the west and never make it here in this LRC. We have had some decent rain lately but the drought really hasn’t been broken here yet.

Baseball Mike
Guest
Baseball Mike

Good morning Gary

Our Topeka meteorologists and NWS has had a horrible time with forecasts all this year. It was supposed to rain last week more than it did and the rain never happened here that was forecast over the past three days. Did the system slow down, stall? We never get explanations on the weather casts. They just rely on computer models. Thanks for any explanations.
Michael/Berryton/Topeka

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Mike, your comment wasn’t being displayed when I posted, but I see you and me are thinking along the same lines. You pretty much said what I was thinking.

Baseball Mike
Guest
Baseball Mike

Yes Mike

With the occasional exception of the WIBW radio met and I listen to KNZA and catch Bill Spencer who provides the best explanations of anyone. We just receive generalized weather coverage here.

Michael/BerrytonTopeka

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Topeka always has a problem with their estimated rainfall amounts that have occurred too, whereas Hastings and Omaha usually get it right.
Topeka’s webpage shows we’ve gotten only 1″ of rain since Friday (east of the Blue River on the Pottawatomie-Marshall County line), but we’ve actually gotten 4.85″ since 8 PM yesterday.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=twx&product=NTP&loop=no

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I agree totally with your comment. The forecast from the NWS in Topeka for Lawrence this past week and Labor Day weekend has been awful. Forecast rain predictions of 90% down to 20% for today. I look at my own blends of models and follow this blog to get a more accurate picture of what might happen.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded 2.25″ at 7 this morning in Maryville with more on the way! We are finally going to beat this drought. Can’t wait to see what next drought monitor looks like on Thursday! However cutting grass this week will be a challenge! Have a great Labor Day Bloggers,
Michael